PHOTO: Insurgents near Kassab in Lattakia Province

If last week’s headlines in Syria were dominated by regime success, this week’s have been taken over by insurgent offensives.

Following the capture of Yabroud in its Qalamoun offensive, the Syrian military claimed territory west of Homs, notably the 12th-century castle Krak des Chevaliers, but it was the opposition who made the most significant gains.

Over the past week, insurgents advanced in Aleppo Province, moving on Aleppo city from the northwest. They took checkpoints near Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib Province, threatening to cut the regime’s supply line to bases to the north. They continued their attacks between Quneitra and Daraa in the south, taking the central prison in Daraa city and freeing hundreds of detainees.

And on Friday, the insurgency launched its second offensive in seven months in Latakia Province in western Syria. Already opposition fighters have seized the regime’s last remaining border post with Turkey, moved on the nearby village of Kassab, and killed the commander of Syria’s National Defense Forces, the President’s cousin Hilal al-Assad.

The Latakia offensive also brought a notable intervention by Turkey, as it shot down a Syrian warplane which it claimed had moved into its airspace. Even before the incident, Damascus accused Ankara of supporting “terrorists”.

Israel also took action, hitting Syrian military and security targets after a roadside bomb that injured four Israeli soldiers in the Golan Heights.

And the US formally closed Syrian diplomatic posts, including the Embassy in Washington and consultates in Michigan and Texas.

FORECAST

The competing stories of the regime and insurgent offensives point to the bleak conclusion — one missed by mainstream media who proclaimed, “Assad is Steadily Winning” — that, with no victor, the war will be prolonged.

After its triumphal annoucements last week, the Assad regime may have to regroup, as it faces pressure on three fronts — in Aleppo, in the south, and now in the west in Latakia Province — in addition to the territory it has long lost in northern and eastern Syria.

Insurgents will be boosted by the advances of recent days, especially after the loss of Yabroud, but they still face the task of co-ordinating across their different fronts to press the regime in Syria’s cities. The loss of territory west of Homs will not cut the supply line to insurgents from Lebanon, but it will make operations in central Syria — including pressure on Homs city — more difficult.

Politically, the Assad regime will maintain the line that Syria’s future is best assured through spring elections that will confirm the Assad’s legitimacy. This line, however, faces difficulties if the military situation turns against Damascus.

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