Donald Trump, flanked by Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, in a White House press appearance, March 26, 2026
EA on International Outlets: Trump’s Indecision on Iran Deal
UPDATE, JUNE 9:
I joined Pakistan’s Express 24-7 on Monday afternoon to analyze the significance of Iran and Israel firing missiles on each other.
Although both countries have said they are holding off further attacks for now, I explain to host Zunaira Azhar that the episode shows the wars in Iran and Lebanon are beyond Donald Trump’s control.
We are in this limbo. No ceasefires but no all-out war, but every word that comes out of Trump mouth is worth as much as this piece of paper that I’m shredding in my hand right now.
Watch from 5:54:
UPDATE 1549 GMT:
I spoke with France 24 on Monday afternoon about how, after 102 days of war, Donald Trump has lost the initiative both to Iran and to Israel.
I explain how the Trump camp, even while backing away from reaching a framework deal with Tehran, continue to negotiate on the basis of Iran’s proposal — thus giving priority to Iranian leverage over the Strait of Hormuz rather than the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.
I evaluate how, desperate for that deal, Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack Lebanon’s capital Beirut and then not to strike Iran. But rather than conceding, Netanyahu shows the limits of Trump’s commands by launching airstrikes in both cases.
Watch from 2:39:
ORIGINAL ENTRY: I joined India’s WION on Sunday to assess the Trump Administration’s failure after 100 days of its war on Iran.
I assess how the Iranian regime not only survived the US and Israeli assaults but how it is exercising leverage through its retaliation against Gulf States and its control of the Strait of Hormuz.
To explore the extent of the Trump loss, I compare today’s position with that of February 26, amid US-Iran talks two days before the launch of the war.
- The Strait of Hormuz was open to all shipping;
- Iran was negotiating limits on its nuclear program;
- Iran’s ballistic missile program and its links with regional groups, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, might be discussed;
- Global oil and energy markets were stable, with no shock to the world’s economy.
The interview was on Sunday afternoon, before Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes after the Israeli attacks on Lebanon’s capital Beirut.
Watch from 2:17:
Northern Israel’s Ramat David Air Base struck during Iran conflict, satellite images appear to show: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-898862
“Ramat David Airbase in the North may have been struck during the Iranian missile attacks on Monday, according to satellite imagery published by Soar Atlas on Tuesday. Comparing satellite footage from Monday to footage from June 5, it is possible to see what appears to be the impact of an airstrike at a hangar at the IAF base, which is southeast of Haifa, near Migdal Ha’emek. It is unclear from the imagery what might have been damaged and to what degree.”
REPORTED DAMAGE TO US BASES IN THE GULF:
NEW YORK TIMES: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/11/world/middleeast/iran-us-military-bases-strikes-map.html
NEW YORK TIMES: https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/middleeast/100000010868609/iran-war-us-military-base-damage.html
NEW YORK TIMES: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/25/us/politics/iran-us-bases.html
CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/01/world/video/us-military-bases-iran-strikes-images-invs-digvid
CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/29/politics/us-iran-war-25-billion-cost-estimate-low
ABC: https://abcnews.com/International/satellite-images-reveal-damage-us-basesin-gulf-amid/story?id=130729980
NBC (AEI): https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-caused-extensive-damage-us-military-bases-publicly-known-rcna331853
WASHNGTON POST: https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/05/06/iran-us-bases-satellite-images/
WALL STREET JOURNAL: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/the-u-s-military-assets-damaged-or-lost-in-the-iran-war-b651127a
WALL STREET JOURNAL: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-us-embassy-iran-strike-damage-b924d29c
AIR/SPACE FORCE: https://www.airandspaceforces.com/us-air-operations-center-qatar-severely-damaged-iran/
BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l2yl7r8r2o
BLOOMBERG: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-30/americans-injured-in-iranian-missile-strike-on-kuwaiti-air-base
THE TIMES: https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/israel-iran/article/iran-war-us-bases-middle-east-damage-attack-sld8zcl3f
MEM: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260410-iran-targeted-7-arab-countries-with-6413-missiles-drones-over-past-41-days/
NBC: https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/iran-war-drones-missile-strikes-military-attack-capabilities-rcna263382
REPORTED DAMAGE TO US AIRCRAFT:
BLOOMBERG: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-21/iran-has-destroyed-roughly-1-billion-worth-of-us-reaper-drones
CRS: https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/05/22/congressional-report-tallies-42-us-aircraft-lost-or-damaged-in-operation-epic-fury/
THE HILL: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5817315-daring-rescue-mission-iran/
LIMITED DAMAGE TO IRAN MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE:
WALL STREET JOURNAL: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-latest-news-israel-us-lebanon-2026/card/iran-missile-arsenal-halved-but-thousands-remain-u-s-and-israeli-official-say-FA63KMsv59mf936XigGP
CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/31/us/iran-tunnels-reopened-us-strategy-bombing-invs
CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/02/politics/iran-missiles-us-military-strikes-trump
CNN: https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/21/politics/iran-military-rebuild
NEW YORK TIMES: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/iran-missiles-us-intelligence.html
CBS: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-more-capable-than-trump-admin-publicly-acknowledging/
WASHINGTON POST: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/07/cia-intelligence-iran-trump-blockade-missiles/
BLOOMBERG: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-05/israel-says-more-than-1-000-iranian-missiles-still-threaten-it
INDEPENDENT: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/trump-iran-missiles-us-war-failure-b2975636.html
TOI: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-iran-rebuilding-missile-production-faster-than-expected/
REPORTED DAMAGE TO ISRAEL:
TOI: https://www.timesofisrael.com/650-iranian-missiles-fired-24-killed-and-10800-israeli-strikes-the-war-in-numbers/
JP: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-892507
YNET: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjnk0hajgx
SPYTALK: https://www.spytalk.co/p/exclusive-iran-missile-damaged-sensitive
SEVERE MUNITIONS DEPLETION:
CSIS: https://www.csis.org/analysis/rebuilding-us-missile-inventory-multiyear-project
WASHINGTON POST: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/21/us-bears-brunt-israels-missile-defense-pentagon-assessments-show
NEW YORK TIMES: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/23/us/politics/iran-war-cost-military.html
WASHINGTON TIIMES (CBS): https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/may/10/sen-kelly-warns-weapons-use-iran-reduced-military-readiness-munitions/
WALL STREET JOURNAL: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/iran-war-complicates-contingency-plans-to-defend-taiwan-some-u-s-officials-say-4384f7c1
NEWSWEEK: https://www.newsweek.com/iran-war-drain-why-replacing-spent-us-weapons-will-take-years-11999728
IRANIAN INFORMATION/CYBER WARFARE:
WALL STREET JOURNAL: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-internet-memes-2c77e734
WALL STREET JOURNAL: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/hack-on-u-s-medical-company-shows-reach-of-irans-cyber-capabilities-85999878