Last week in Syria’s was a contest — on the military and political levels — between the Assad regime’s long-sought pacification of Homs and difficulties elsewhere for Syrian forces.
With President Assad campaigning for his nominal re-election on June 3, Damascus hailed the evacuation of the last insurgents from 13 districts of Homs, after more than two years of bombardment and siege. Having failed to take the areas after months of ground attacks, the regime accepted the re-location of the insurgents north of Homs. The two sides also exchanged prisoners, and insurgents allowed supplies into the regime-held pockets of Nubl and Zahra, north of Aleppo.
State media tried to uphold images of residents returning to Homs, as insurgents struck and advanced in both northwest and southern Syria. Opposition fighters blew up Aleppo’s Carlton Citadel Hotel, used by the Syrian military and militia, with a detonation from an underground tunnel, and they advanced farther in the key northwest Aleppo areas of Layramoun and Zahra.
The insurgents also used an underground bomb against a regime base in Idlib Province, killing at least 50 troops, and a remote-controlled car bomb in Hama Province, killing another 20. News also emerged from a blackout of opposition success in late April in the eastern Qalamoun region, seizing and destroying scores of tanks and armored vehicles and leaving at least 115 Syrian forces dead as they took the Brigade 559 base.
Insurgents consolidated their hold on almost all territory between Quneitra and Daraa in southwest Syria, edging closer to Quneitra city and withstanding regime barrel bombs through Daraa Province.
Fighting continued between the Islamic State of Iraq and insurgents in eastern Syria, with both sides claiming victories in Deir Ez Zor Province.
FORECAST
The Assad regime is now in a public-relations race to establish its “victory” — both to Syrians and to the international community — before insurgents can seize attention with their series of advances and attacks.
The insurgency’s attack on Aleppo’s Carlton Citadel Hotel, which came as the Homs deal was being implemented, threatened to undermine the “Assad is winning” narrative; however, the regime regained ground over the weekend with the display of the campaign for the June 3 election and the emphasis on returning civilians in Homs.
The opposition will combine its gradual consolidation of power in southwest Syria, complementing the northern and eastern areas that it holds, while looking for more dramatic underground attacks on military targets. At the same time, it will hope to check the regime offensive near Damascus, having resisted the latest assault on Mleha, east of the capital.
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