Key military, political and diplomatic events in Syria and Iran over the past week, with an eye to future developments.

SYRIA

IRAN

TECHNICAL DISCUSSIONS IN VIENNA, IAEA VISIT TEHRAN

SYRIA

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES IN ALEPPO BARREL BOMBING

The week ended with the deaths of over 100 civilians in an escalation of regime bombing, particularly on insurgent-held areas of Aleppo, where at least 80 people were killed on Sunday in a bombardment that included barrel bombs.

The reason for the deadly surge is unclear, but it comes amid mixed fortunes for the Syrian military. Its advance last month east of Aleppo, taking the town of as-Safira and opening a corridor to areas of the city that it occupies, does not appear to have been followed up.

The month-long Qalamoun offensive between Damascus and the Lebanese border took another town, Nabk, last week but insurgents hit back and apparently captured the town of Adra, 12 miles northeast of Damascus. Both sides traded claims of mass killing of civilians. Meanwhile, opposition fighters say they still block the Damascus-to-Homs highway.

REFUGEES FACE EXTREME COLD AS WINTER HITS HARD

The civilian deaths added to a week of misery, with millions of refugees and displaced persons facing extreme cold and floods amid revelations of the blocking of aid by President Assad’s forces. The regime tried to maintain provisions for its supporters with the use of an Iranian line of credit to buy food.

SYRIA REFUGEES --- USED 14-12-13

Photo: Syrian refugees in the snow

Near Damascus, four leading activists, including Razan Zaitouneh — co-founder of the Local Coordination Committees and Violations Documentation Center — were kidnapped.

MISREPORTING THE ISLAMIC FRONT SEIZURE OF FSA WAREHOUSES

The major development within the insurgency continued to be the position of the Islamic Front, formed in November by seven leading factions. During the week, the Front said it responded to a call for protection by the Free Syrian Army after the FSA’s warehouses at a key crossing on the border with Turkey were raided by an armed group.

However, apparent mis-reporting of the incident as a Front seizure of the FSA’s position — refuted not only by the Front but also by the opposition Syrian National Coalition — led the US to cut off aid to insurgents across northern Syria.

By the end of the week, Washington appeared to be re-calibrating its position towards the Front, with its envoy Robert Ford heading to Turkey to meet members of the bloc. The US is attempting to get the Front’s acceptance of a “peace” conference in Geneva on January 22.

SYRIA FORECAST

The surge in air strikes near Aleppo and in the Damascus suburbs may well continue through the winter, to maintain pressure on insurgents and civilians in opposition-controlled areas, while the weather limits ground ops.

The humanitarian crisis will also escalate, with the combination of adverse conditions, ongoing blocking of aid, and a surge of civilians fleeing air strikes and clashes from Qalamoun to Aleppo to Damascus.

Despite Washington’s persistent efforts, there is no prospect that the “peace” conference in Switzerland will take place on January 22, at least not with any meaningful presence from the opposition and certainly not from the insurgency.

As that possibility recedes, the Obama Administration will consider whether it will accept President Assad’s continued stay in power — an option that some in Washington may have already embraced.

FEATURED ANALYSES

IRAN

Pushing back both Iran’s hardliners and exaggerated reports in the Western media, the Rouhani Government maintained its commitment to implementation of the interim nuclear deal signed on November 24 in Geneva.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSIONS IN VIENNA, IAEA VISIT TEHRAN

The week started positively, with four days of technical discussions between Iran and the 5+1 Powers in Vienna, and a visit by the International Atomic Energy Agency to Tehran. However, the US Treasury shook up the process on Thursday when it added 19 Iranian companies and individuals to its blacklist for supporting Iran’s nuclear program.

The Supreme Leader lashed out at an “irrational” Washington, and the Foreign Ministry and top MPs criticized the decision and warned against new sanctions.

However, Tehran never suspended discussions and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif closed the week with reassurances that “we will seriously continue the Geneva negotiations, albeit…[with] proper, measured, purposeful, and smart responses to any improper and unconstructive action”.

ZARIF KICKS BACK AGAINST HARD-LINE CRITICISMS

Zarif also pushed back against hard-liners who criticized him during the week, saying that their talk of a halt to the nuclear agreement did not reflect reality.

IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari jabbed at Zarif over a reported comment that two US bombs could knock out Iran’s defense system: “We consider him a seasoned and experienced diplomat, but he has no experience in military affairs.”

MORE ATTACKS FROM SUNNI INSURGENTS DESTABILIZES IRAN-PAKISTAN BORDER REGION

Away from the nuclear issue, the Sunni insurgency Jaish ul-Adl carried out new attacks in southeastern Iran, saying that these were in response to shelling by Iranian forces across the border into the Washuk area of Pakistan.

kk

Photo: The Baloch areas of the Iran-Pakistan border region

While Islamabad has been silent on the allegations of Iranian shelling, locals in the Washuk region said that civilians had been killed in the attacks, which targeted homes that Iran believed housed Sunni insurgents.

FORECAST

Despite the flutter over the US Treasury blacklist, implementation of the nuclear deal remains on course. The Obama Administration checked any attempt by Congress to mandate new sanctions, and Iran is on course to suspend enrichment of 20% uranium while discussing procedures for inspection of the Arak heavy-water nuclear facility.

The statement by the head of the Revolutionary Guards, General Jafari, raised the prospect of a new clash between the Guards and the Rouhani Government; however, this has not become a sustained challenge…yet. As long as the Government maintains a firm line on Iran’s right to enrich and does not hint at Iranian weakness, it should be able to keep hard-liners at bay.

The biggest challenge to the Government may be on the economic front. Initial reactions to its draft budget have been favorable, and it is putting out the prospect of a doubling of oil exports to 1.5 million barrels per day from this year’s historic low of 760,000 bpd. This should bolster confidence as President Rouhani’s men try to reduce the rate of inflation and revive production.

The continued attacks by Sunni insurgents in Sistan Baluchestan look set to destabilize the border area further. The insurgents claim to have surface-to-surface rockets and warned that they will attack more Iranian security targets if their demands are not met.

FEATURED ANALYSES