PHOTO: Man holds young casualty after regime barrel-bombing of Halak in Aleppo

Another week in the patchwork war in Syria, with the regime finally arranging the full takeover of Homs and insurgents continuing to gain in the southwest and press Syrian forces in Aleppo.

After a 48-hour ceasefire, the regime and insurgents agreed on the departure of opposition fighters from Homs, Syria’s third-largest city. About 2,250 people, most of them fighters, will leave the Old City, the center of the resistance. Many thousands remain in 12 other sections which will now be occupied by Syrian forces.

State media are hailing a great victory, which comes as President Assad starts his campaign for re-election, but some insurgents and activists are saying that the evacuation is a strategic withdrawal, having tied up regime forces while opposition forces made gains elsewhere.

Insurgents advanced further in their offensive in the southwest in Quneitra and Daraa Provinces, taking strategic hills near Nawa. Opposition fighters are now on the verge of holding all of the territory from Quneitra to Daraa, as well as holding part of Daraa city.

The opposition is still pressing its campaign to squeeze regime forces in western Aleppo city, closing from the northwest. However, the Syrian military has counter-attacked east of Syria’s largest city, notably near the Sheikh Najjar industrial area, while continuing a deadly bombardment in and near Aleppo.

So far, the fighting is inconclusive, but scores of civilians have joined the long list of casualties — more than 2,000 have reportedly been killed in bombing in Aleppo Province since the start of the year. In addition, State media is highlighting deaths from insurgent mortar attacks in Aleppo and in Damascus.

On the political front, the Assad regime formally launched the campaign for the President’s June 3 re-election. Two other candidates were allowed to stand — a businessman who is also a former MP and Minister of State, and a Communist who started a political party in Aleppo.

The humanitarian crisis continued with much rhetoric but little hope of resolution. Syrian State media launched a stinging attack on the United Nations aid chief, Valerie Amos, after she said the UN Security Council had failed to get the regime’s co-operation to allow assistance through border crossings.

FORECAST

Although the Syrian regime is talking of a military breakthrough to follow the Homs agreement, the prospect is for the continuation of an effecdtive “dynamic stalemate”, in which each side make gains but faces pressure elsewhere.

A successful counter-attack by the Syrian military east of Aleppo could change the situation, as the regime moves from defense to blockading the insurgent-held eastern part of the city. However, until that happens, President Assad and his advisors have to deal not only with the struggle over Syria’s largest city but also the continuing insurgent presence — despite months of assaults and “reconciliation agreements” — near Damascus. They also face the opposition advance in the southwest and near Dumayr, northesat of the capital. as insurgents hold most of the north and east of the country.

State media will say little about this. Instead, an increasing amount of airtime and space will go to the electoral procession of Assad as stories pile up about rallies for him and the Syrian army.

Limited amounts of aid will reach some displaced Syrians, but any hope of a general agreement for assistance — if there ever was one — is gone. Tension between Damascus and the UN aid agencies will increase. Blockades on insurgent-held areas will continue, as the regime sees these as an effective tactic to re-take territory.

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