A week of two distinct but linked narratives in Iran, as the Rouhani Government tried to promote the nuclear discussions with the 5+1 Powers but faced growing pressure from hardline critics.
With technical talks in New York this week and then the resumption of high-level negotiations in Vienna on May 13, the Government signalled the possibility of advance while maintain a firm line on Iran’s right to enrich. Rouhani and Ministers hailed the lifting of some sanctions, while insisting that all would have to be removed in a final agreement, while dangling compromise on topics such as the status of the Arak heavy-water reactor.
That was not nearly enough for the critics, who rallied on Saturday in Tehran under the banner “We’re Worried” and chided Rouhani for calling the hardline opposition “illiterates”. The gathering pointed to the growing prominence of the Endurance Front, led by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, as a vocal challenger to the Government.
The Revolutionary Guards continued to snipe at the Government without directly challenging the talks. The Supreme Leader continued to back the discussions but put out rhetoric of defiance, “Bullying Powers Will Respect Us”.
Meanwhile, Rouhani identified the stakes for himself and the country in the talks, as he used a State TV interview to link the nuclear issue and the economy. As the Government introduced the second phase of subsidy cuts, he set out goals to reduce inflation and unemployment and increase production and exports, saying all this would be assisted by the removal of sanctions.
FORECAST
The Government is increasingly dependent on a nuclear agreement for its future. Without a comprehensive deal, it will struggle to offer the prospect of economic revival with the lifting of sanctions and it will look politically weak — even if it tries to present any failure as an unwillingness to bow down to the West.
President Rouhani’s room for maneuver, away from the talks, is narrowing. His economic program will take some time to show success — if it succeeds — and his political and cultural initiatives have been all but cut off by the hardline challenge, supported by the Supreme Leader and Revolutionary Guards. Even hoped-for breakthroughs in foreign policy, such as rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, offer little relief at this point.
Whether or not the Endurance Front is the leading opposition bloc, it is playing an important role for itself and other factions: its vocal criticism means that pressure on Rouhani will not ease.
FEATURED ANALYSES
Rouhani’s Opportunity for Rapprochement With Saudi Arabia?
Ending Restrictions on the Internet…by Yahoo!
How Documentary Film on Rouhani Was Condemned & Taken Off Screens