Insurgent offensives in both the northwest and south of Syria are threatening President Assad’s declaration that the regime has turned the corner in the Syrian conflict and will be victorious within a year.

Opposition forces made significant advances to the northwest and south of Aleppo, threatening military targets and the seizure of the main highway from the airport to regime bases.

An insurgent attack on Ramouseh, south of Aleppo:

In the southwest, insurgents continued to take territory near Quneitra, close to the demilitarized zone with Israel. The fighters are seeking to link Quneitra with Daraa, where the uprising against the Assad regime began more than three years ago.

News from the month-long insurgent offensive in Latakia Province in western Syria was limited, following the opposition’s takeover of villages near the Turkish border and shelling of cities like Latakia.

Nevertheless, the opposition advances overtook the regime’s proclamation of breakthrough last night with its Qalamoun offensive between Damascus and the Lebanese border, claiming the city of Yabroud.

Indeed, in what could be a sign of frustrations, the Syrian military apparently dropped canisters of chlorine gas — possibly inside barrel bombs — on Kafrzita in Hama Province. An activist said at least three people had been killed and 200 wounded.

Regime forces have been unable to reclaim Morek, nine kilometers (5.5 miles) from Kafrzita, and the Syrian military may be struggling to send reinforcements from the province to areas such as Aleppo.

On another front, insurgents repelled an attempt by the Islamic State of Iraq and as-Sham to expand its influence in eastern Syria, pushing back ISIS forces after they temporarily took over the town of Abu Kumal near the Iraqi border.

FORECAST

If insurgents continue to press their advance on the edges of Aleppo, this could be the most significant military development since Assad forces checked the opposition with victory in Qusayr on the Lebanese border last June.

Opposition takeover or even disruption of headquarters, bases, and supply lines in both the northwest and south could isolate the Syrian military and its allies in its occupation of the western half of Aleppo. At the very least, that will ease pressure on insurgents in eastern sections — only weeks after some outlets were proclaiming that it was the Syrian military who would cut off its opponents.

The insurgent gains are also important psychologically. They put behind months of conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq and as-Sham — even as ISIS was attacking opposition factions and Kurdish militias in eastern Syria — and expose weaknesses in Assad’s claim, as he approaches a spring Presidential election, that the regime will soon be triumphant.

FEATURED ANALYSES


Special: Identifying the Sources for Hersh’s “Insurgents’ Chemical Weapons Attacks”
Special: Dissecting Hersh’s “Insurgents Did Chemical Weapons Attacks” — A Sequel
Chemical Warfare — Regime Uses Chlorine Gas on Kafrzita in Hama Province
Is US Blocking Military Aid to Insurgents in South?
Non-Surprise of Day — Obama Administration Still Fighting Over Military Aid to Insurgents

FEATURED 1ST-HAND

Detention & Death of A Promising IT Engineer
Video: An Appeal from Insurgents in South About Weapons
The Regime’s Offensive Against Mleha Near Damascus
The Insurgent Advance in Quneitra in Southwest