Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty
Written for Upday:
Donald Trump has a 11% (1 in 9) chance of winning the November 3 US Presidential election against Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
To triumph, Trump must win 1 of the 3 states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that were vital in his 2016 defeat of Hillary Clinton — and he has no more than a 15% chance in any of them at the moment.
But then he must overcome Biden’s advantage in Florida and North Carolina. He has to hold on in Ohio and he even has to secure the once reliably-Republican state of Georgia.
So if he can’t accomplish that, Trump’s recourse will be to defy the outcome of the vote. Here’s a 4-point guide:
1. Hope for Voter Suppression
The Trump camp’s initial ploy has been in place for weeks, with the assistance of Republican governors in states such as Florida and Texas.
To limit the potential turnout for Biden, Florida has unravelled a 2018 agreement that felons can vote, and struck others from the register. Some states have restricted drop boxes — in Houston’s Harris County in Texas, there is only one for 4.7 million people. The US Postal Service, under Trump mega-donor Louis DeJoy, has removed boxes and sorting machines.
These steps have been backed by aggressive legal action to stop any counting of ballots that are not received by Election Day, even if they are postmarked before November 3.
2. Declare Himself the Winner Early on Election Night
As the results come in from 6 p.m. Eastern time on November 3, Trump will hope that the early returnss — largely from in-person voting, rather than mail-in ballots — put him ahead of Biden in the swing states.
Even though the tally will be far from complete, Trump could declare himself the winner.
3. Falsely Assert That Mail-In Votes Are Fraudulent
But how to pre-empt the further counting of the ballots for a 100% tally, which could give Biden victory?
Trump has prepared the ground for months by proclaiming falsely that mail-in voting is fraudulent. He will emphasize this on Election Night: if this does not halt the counts, it will sow confusion and muddy the waters over the actual size of a Biden lead.
4. Go to the Courts — and Amy Coney Barrett
Teams of Trump lawyers will file cases in state courts to toss out the mail-in ballots. The action will defer any confirmation of Biden’s victory for weeks.
Then the Trump camp will place its bet on a Supreme Court, tilted toward conservatives by Trump’s three appointments since 2017, ruling in its favor.
How do we know this? From Donald Trump himself — on September 22, he explained why the unprecedented rush to confirm Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett must be completed before Election Day:
We need 9 justices. You need that. With the unsolicited millions of ballots that they’re sending…you’re gonna need 9 justices.
What Stops This? A Biden Landslide
Is there any way to stop The Donald clinging to his desk in the Oval Office? Yes, but it will require the signs of a decisive victory by Joe Biden on Election Night.
Reverse Trump’s path to victory. Biden locks down Pennsylvania; wins Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio; and is the first Democrat to triumph in Arizona since 1996 and in Georgia since 1992.
That would give him 375 electoral votes to Trump’s 125. If the former Vice President could then flip Texas — Republican since 1976 — the margin would be 413:125.
At that point, even the GOP Senators who have carried water for Trump for almost four years (step up, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell) might stand up to him and say enough is enough. That possibility will be reinforced if a Democratic wave claims control of the Senate.
But right now, the prospect of this happening is a risky bet. And it may be a long-shot to occur by the day after the election.
So buckle up. This could be a very bumpy ride.
