The week in Syria has been led by the Assad regime’s attempts to promote the re-election of the President on Tuesday.
State media has featured daily proclamations of the mass support of the Syrian people for the country’s first multi-candidate contest and for Assad and the Syrian Army. The outlets declared that last week’s advance voting by Syrians abroad, notably in Lebanon, demonstrated the regime’s victory over the West and the opposition.
The PR could not completely push the military situation to the background. Syrian forces continued their aerial assault across the country, with more barrel-bombing in and near Aleppo. Claims also circulated of insurgent rockets killing dozens of people in Syria’s largest city.
Insurgents tried to follow up their success in northwest Syria earlier this month with the declaration of a new offensive in Idlib Province. They said another underground bomb killed up to 40 Syrian troops in Aleppo.
There was little progress for either side on other fronts. Syrian forces tried to claw back territory lost to the opposition in the south, attacking Nawa, and maintained the bombardment of Mleha, the “gateway” town east of Damascus.
There was no sign of humanitarian relief for most of the millions displaced in Syria, even as a report documented that 75% of Syrians are impoverished. The United Nations continued to denounce the blocking of assistance, notably by the Assad regime, while Russia — which has previously prevented enforcement measures to ensure access to aid — said it would pursue a new initiative.
FORECAST
The script for Tuesday’s re-election of President Assad has already been written, with the regime telling Syrians that the vote proves its legitimacy and announcing across the world that it marks victory in the 39-month conflict.
Whether that script works is another matter. The military situation is unlikely to be affected by the ballot. Instead, the Assad regime — which has succeeded in diverting blame from itself over chemical weapons — will hope that the ballot will continue to turn foreign attention to “extremists” and “jihadists” and away from the daily airstrikes and barrel-bombings.
Insurgents are unlikely to strike at voting centers on Tuesday. Instead, they appear to be consolidating after last week’s success in northwest Syria and could be preparing another push, as well as pursuing the tactic of underground bombing of military targets.
Any process for political reconcilation is dormant. Efforts to get some aid to insurgent-held areas, blocked by the Syrian regime, are likely to founder on Russian resistance in the United Nations. Instead, the US, Britain, and other countries are considering — but unlikely to act soon — support of aid drives without permission from Damascus.
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