Residents set fire to a giant poster of Bashar al-Assad on the facade of the city hall in Hama, Syria (Bakr Alkasem/AFP)

The Russia-Iran-Assad “Axis of the Vulnerable” Is Cracking in Syria

UPDATES: Rebels Liberate Aleppo and Hama

UPDATE 1737 GMT:

The scene in the Damascus suburb of Erbin, one of the sites of the Assad regime’s sarin attacks in August 2013 that killed at least 1,400 civilians:

The people of my city in #Arbin in #Eastern_Ghouta are tearing up pictures of Bashar al-Assad from the police station

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— Qusay Noor (@qusaynoor.bsky.social) December 7, 2024 at 4:42 PM

UPDATE 1647 GMT:

Both Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov have distanced their governments from support of the Assad regime against the rebel offensive.

The two men met Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan and the UN envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen in Doha, Qatar. Araghchi said “political dialogue between the Syrian government and the legitimate opposition groups” should begin.

Lavrov said the three foreign ministers agreed that there had to be an immediate end to “hostilities”, with the resumption of dialogue between the regime and opposition.

The shift from Araghchi and Lavrov came less than 24 hours after Iran’s former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani met Bashar al-Assad in Damascus to assure him of Tehran’support.

UPDATE 1634 GMT:

Protesters have toppled the statue of Hafez al-Assad, the father of Bashar al-Assad, in the main square in the Damascus suburb of Jermana.

Jermana, a mainly-Druze area, is about 10 km (6.2 miles), from the center of the capital.

The demonstrators also gathered in front of security buildings to demand the evacuation of regime personnel.

UPDATE 1606 GMT:

Around 2,000 Assad regime troops have crossed the border into Iraq seeking refuge, says Turki Al-Mahlawi, the mayor of the Iraqi border town of Al-Qaim border town.

Some of the troops were wounded and are receiving medical treatment.

UPDATE 1438 GMT:

Assad regime forces have withdrawn from al-Kiswah, south of Damascus.

The regime has also reportedly departed from Muadamiyah al-Sham, near the Damascus International Airport.

UPDATE 1359 GMT:

A “source close to Hezbollah” says the Lebanese group has sent 2,000 fighters to Qusayr in western Syria near the border with Lebanon.

In 2013, Hezbollah intervened in the Syrian uprising to attack opposition forces in Qusayr.

UPDATE 1342 GMT:

Rebels have reportedly entered Darayya, around 7 km (4.3 miles) from Bashar al-Assad’s Presidential Palace in southern Damascus.

In August 2012, Assad regime forces killed at least 700 civilians in the suburb. The opposition subsequently liberated it, but the regime, enabled by Russia, forced a surrender and mass deportation in 2016.

The 220th Branch of the military’s intelligence branch and its prison in southwest Damascus have been taken. The facility was notorious for the mass torture and execution of detainees.

UPDATE 1335 GMT:

Rebels have announced the start of operations to encircle Damascus. They are cu

rrently about 15 km (9.3 miles) from the outskirts of the capital.

The drive to enter Homs has begun.

UPDATE 1325 GMT:

Assad forces are withdrawing from Abu Kemal in eastern Syria.

The departure cuts the route used by the regime and by Iran, which has heavily invested in it during the Syrian uprising, between Iraq and the Mediterranean.

UPDATE 1128 GMT:

The rebel offensive has reportedly entered western Damascus Province, taking control of Kanaker, Danaj, Dayr Maker, Zakia, and the surrounding military barracks

UPDATE 1121 GMT:

Rebels have liberated Quneitra Province in southwest Syria.

BREAKING NEWS – Syrian opposition factions announce control of Quneitra Governorate, Syria.

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— Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول (@faredalmahlool.bsky.social) December 7, 2024 at 10:13 AM

The offensive has not yet entered Homs city, but is advancing in the east of the province with the liberation of al-Quaryatayn. Regime forces have reportedly withdrawn from Furqlus, Palmyra, Sukhnah, and Qasr al-Hayr.

UPDATE 0827 GMT:

Claims are circulating that Assad regime forces are withdrawing from cities in northeast Syria, following a deal with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

UPDATE 0819 GMT:

Jordan has denied claims, including in the Wall Street Journal, that it encouraged Bashar al-Assad to leave Damascus and form a government-in-exile.

The Jordanian Embassy in Washington said the “baseless allegations” are “entirely unfounded and false”: “We categorically reject this fabrication and call on the WSJ management to issue a correction immediately.”

UPDATE 0807 GMT:

Iran’s regime is backing away from support of Bashar al-Assad.

Asked about Assad’s possible downfall, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi replied on Friday “The fate of the Syrian President cannot be predicted.”

Iran State media have stopped using the pejorative labels “terrorist” and “takfiri” for the Islamist faction Hay’at al-Tahrir Sham, and are now calling it an “armed group“.

In a meeting with Assad regime and Iraqi counterparts on Friday, Araqchi did proclaim that the rebels will be a threat to Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey.

UPDATE, DEC 7:

Rebels have liberated most of Daraa Province, the original site of the March 2011 uprising, in southern Syria.

On Friday afternoon, the rebels’ Southern Operations Room — which held part of the province until the Assad regime, enabled by Russia and Iran, regained it in 2018-2019 — reformed.

Within hours, their forces had seized positions in Daraa city, including the Security Square and the offices of Military Security, the regime’s intelligence branch which carried out arbitrary arrests, torture, and executions. Regime bases and strategic hills such as Tel Jemou were quickly seized.

There was little fighting, as regime forces fled.

Local groups liberated the mainly-Druze Suwayda Province. In the afternoon, they took over the police headquarters in Suwayda city when it was evacuated by the regime.

The regime’s departure from the rest of their positions soon followed, although three people were killed in clashes.

With the loss of Daraa and Suwayda, the Assad regime only controls five of Syria’s 13 provincial capitals: Homs, which is under threat from the 10-day rebel offensive; Damascus, Latakia,
Tartous, and Quneitra.

UPDATE 1618 GMT:

Rebels are attacking Assad regime forces in Daraa Province, where the Syrian uprising began in March 2011.

Opposition factions have announced the relaunch of the Southern Operations Room, which controlled part of the south until the regime, enabled by Russia and Iran, reoccupied the areas in 2018-2019.

The regime has responded with airstrikes, including on Lajat in northeast Daraa.

In Suwayda Province, local Druze took over the police headquarters in Suwayda city when it was evacuated by the regime.

At least three people were killed in clashes.

“People are seeing what is happening in the rest of Syria as liberation of Syria and a chance to bring down the regime,” activist Ryan Marouf, editor of Suwayda 24.

UPDATE 1611 GMT:

Two more Assad regime generals have been confirmed as killed, bringing the total to six during the 9-day rebel offensive.

Maj. Gen. Khalid Ghazi, 60, was slain in the Military Academy of Aleppo on November 29. His death was only disclosed on Friday.

Gen. Joseph Nadur, the commander of a Regiment within the Republican Guard, was killed in Hama Province.

UPDATE 1601 GMT:

In a speech to fighters, a rebel commander has confirmed that the initial plan for the offensive was not the liberation of Aleppo city.

Commanders intended to take control of parts of Aleppo Province before proceeding. However, when Assad regime defenses unexpectedly crumbled, they pressed ahead into the city.

UPDATE 1501 GMT:

A snapshot from Hama:

UPDATE 1446 GMT:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has expressed hope that Syrian rebels will continue their advances.

Erdoğan told reporters that he has still not received a positive response from Assad to his call earlier this year for a meeting to normalize links.

“The advances of the opposition are continuing as of now….Our hope is that this walk in Syria continues without any issues,” he said.

Turkey’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that Hakan Fidan “will meet with the Russian and Iranian ministers…for a meeting under the Astana process”, on the sidelines of the Doha Forum in Qatar.

UPDATE 1439 GMT:

Russia’s Embassy in Syria has advised Russian nationals to leave the country.

The Embassy called on Russian to depart “on commercial flights through operating airports due to the worsening situation”.

UPDATE 1435 GMT:

Jordan has closed its only passenger and commercial border crossing into Syria.

An Assad regime military official blamed rebels: “Armed groups who infiltrated the crossing attacked Syrian army posts stationed there.”

Jordan’s Interior Minister said Jordanian citizens and trucks would be allowed to return via the Jaber crossing, while no one would be allowed to cross into Syria.

UPDATE 1426 GMT:

Two “security sources” have told Reuters that the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces have taken control of Deir ez-Zor in eastern Syria.

UPDATE 1021 GMT:

Amid the rapid advance by rebels, the Assad regime’s military has declared, “Our armed forces are targeting terrorist vehicles and gatherings in the north and south of Hama Province using artillery, missiles and joint Syrian-Russian warplanes.”

The military made no reference to the rebels closing on Homs city.

UPDATE 0959 GMT:

Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, the leader of the Islamist faction Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, has given an interview to the US outlet CNN.

“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” he said.

The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it….The Iranians attempted to revive the regime, buying it time, and later the Russians also tried to prop it up. But the truth remains: this regime is dead.

Joulani, whose troops are leading the rebel advance, described plans to create a government based on institutions and a “council chosen by the people”.

He addressed concerns of Christians and Christians and other religious and ethnic minorities:

There were some violations against them by certain individuals during periods of chaos, but we addressed these issues,” Jolani said when asked about concerns for their safety.

No one has the right to erase another group. These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.

The HTS leader declared:

Syria deserves a governing system that is institutional, not one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions.

We are talking about a larger project – we are talking about building Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is merely one part of this dialogue, and it may dissolve at any time. It is not an end in itself but a means to perform a task: confronting this regime.

UPDATE 0948 GMT:

Israeli airstrikes have hit two border crossings between Lebanon and Syria.

Assad regime media said the Arida border crossing has been knocked out of service.

The Israeli military said it attacked weapons transfer hubs and infrastructure, declaring that routes are used by Lebanon’s Hezbollah to smuggle weapons.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Advancing rapidly in their nine-day offensive, Syria’s rebels have liberated the country’s fourth-largest city of Hama and are closing on the city of Homs and its 800,000 population.

The victories follow the takeover of Syria’s largest city Aleppo last week, and threaten to cut off the capital Damascus from Assad regime areas in the west of the country.

Intense fighting was reported early Thursday in Hama but by the afternoon rebels had taken key positions such as the Central Prison — freeing hundreds of detainees, some held since the 1980s — and police headquarters. Embedded journalists photographed themselves with the city’s historic Water Wheels.

Syrian journalists covering the rebel advancement, pose for a photo now in front of the Water Wheels of Hama, following liberation of the city from Assad's power.

This is iconic.

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— Rami Jarrah (@ramijarrah.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 2:25 PM

The head of the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham faction, Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, announced the liberation of the city. Hours later, the regime’s army acknowledged in a post, “To preserve the lives of the civilians of Hama and not to engage in fighting inside the cities, the military units associated with it have repatriated and deployed outside the city.”

Residents celebrated throughout the night:

Homs Liberated on Friday?

Rebels barely paused in Hama city before proceeding towards other objectives. Having taken the nearby airbase, the fifth captured in the offensive, they moved into the desert in eastern Hama Province.

They also swept south. Russian warplanes blew up the viaduct on the M5 highway, 20 km (13 miles) from Homs, in an attempt to check the advance.

The moment the Rastan Bridge, connecting Homs to Hama, was reportedly targeted by Assad's forces in an effort to prevent rebel advancement, conflicting reports emerged, suggesting the strike has'nt damage the bridge.

If true, this would be a desperate measure by the regime.

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— Rami Jarrah (@ramijarrah.bsky.social) December 5, 2024 at 8:21 PM

Any effect was temporary. This morning rebels control all of northern Homs Province.

Footage confirms their entry into Talbiseh, 13 km (8 miles) from Homs city center, and they have reportedly reached Dar al-Kabirah, just over four miles away.