Donald Trump speaks to the press aboard Air Force One, May 15, 2026 (Evan Vucci/Reuters)

EA-Erich McElroy VideoCast: Trump’s Threat to US Democracy…and to the World

EA on WION: Israel Attacks Southern Lebanon Despite “Ceasefire”

UPDATES: US-Israel Wars, Day 81 — Alleged Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Extended By 45 Days

UPDATE 1206 GMT:

The Saudi State outlet Al Arabiya has published a 9-point “final draft” of a Pakistan-mediated “possible” agreement to end the US-Israel War on Iran.

Al Arabiya said the interim agreement, with “outstanding issues” to be negotiated after it comes into force, could be announced within hours. Currently, it is “pending approval” by both sides.

The nine points include:

  • An immediate, unconditional ceasefire on all fronts with an end to military operations and the “media war”;
  • A mutual commitment not to target military, civilian, or economic infrastructure;
  • Commitments to respect sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference in internal affairs;

  • Guaranteed freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman;
  • The gradual lifting of US sanctions in exchange for Iran’s commitment to the terms of the agreement;
  • A joint mechanism to monitor implementation and resolve disputes.

Negotiations on outstanding issues will begin within seven days.

The draft does not mention Iran’s nuclear program; its ballistic missiles; or its link with Middle Eastern groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, or militias in Iraq.

Pakistan military head Gen. Asim Munir has arrived in Tehran for discussions. He joins Pakistan Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who has been in the Iranian capital since Wednesday.

UPDATE 1155 GMT:

At least 10 people, including a child and six rescuers, have been killed by Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon on Friday.

A strike on the town of Hannouiyeh killed four rescuers from the Islamic Health Committee.

Two rescuers were and a Syrian girl were slain in a later strike on Deir Qanun al-Nahr

One of the paramedics was killed and four injured by Israeli drone attacks at a junction in the Tyre district in southern Lebanon.

The initial Israeli attack targeted a motorcycle, said the agency. A second attack hit rescuers attempting to retrieve the motorcyclist.

UPDATE 0949 GMT:

A vessel in waters north of Yemen has been fired upon by a small craft with five people aboard

The UK Maritime Trade Operations center said the incident was 98 nautical miles north of Yemen’s Socotra Island.

The warning shots forced the vessel to alter course.

UPDATE 0622 GMT:

Days after Donald Trump’s visit to China, Acting US Navy Secretary Hung Cao says the US is pausing a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan because of the war on Iran.

“Right now, we’re doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury – which we have plenty,” Cao told the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense. “We’re just making sure we have everything, but then the foreign military sales will continue when the administration deems necessary.”

UPDATE 0610 GMT:

The Trump Administration has expended more than half of its THAAD anti-missile interceptors to defend Israel from Iranian retaliation, say American officials.

The US used more than 200 THAAD interceptors to shoot down missiles bound for Israel. It also launched more than 100 SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors.

The Israelis used fewer than 100 Arrow interceptors and around 90 from the David Sling’s system.

A US official cautioned that if military operations are renewed, the US will likely need to use even more interceptors because Israel has sent some missile defense batteries for maintenance.

“Israel is not capable of fighting and winning wars on its own, but nobody actually knows this, because they never see the back end,” said a US official.

UPDATE 0606 GMT:

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that there are “good signs” for a deal to end the US-Israel War on Iran.

However, Rubio said an agreement is “unfeasible” if Tehran insists on its right to charge a toll for ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz.

UPDATE 0553 GMT:

Trying to protect Donald Trump, Republican leaders in the House have cancelled a vote on a war powers resolution.

The measure, adopted by the Senate 50-47 earlier this week, would require Congressional authorization of the war on Iran. The House recesses this week and reconvenes next month.

The top House Democrats — Hakeem Jeffries, Katherine Clark and Pete Aguilar — called the GOP leaders “cowardly”:

For nearly three months, Donald Trump has forced America and our men and women in uniform into a reckless and costly war of choice in Iran. Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth took us to war without clear objectives, an exit strategy, public support, or the authorization required by the United States Congress.

The Republican-controlled House continues to behave like a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Trump administration.

UPDATE, MAY 22:

The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, has warned that oil markets will enter a “red zone” by July and August.

Amid the US-Israel Wars on Iran and Lebanon, Birol cited the dwindling of stocks before the summer travel season and the shortage of oil exports from the Middle East.

He said the full and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, is essential. There is no prospect of oil production recovering fully for at least a year, including in the UAE. Some countries heavily dependent on oil revenues to fund their budgets, such as Iraq, could find it impossible to reinvest in oil production for many years.

Telling a London audience that he has “never seen the dark and long shadow of geopolitics so dominant in the energy sector”, Birol said he feared extremist parties in Europe might use inflation to proclaim the failure of political systems.

UPDATE 1735 GMT:

A “senior Iranian official” has denied reports that the Supreme Leader has barred the movement of Iran’s 60% uranium out of the country.

The official said the reports are “propaganda by the enemies of the deal”.

However, he indicated that the uranium will be downblended to a lower grade while remaining in Iran: “That is the subject of talks in the next stage.”

UPDATE 1416 GMT:

An Israeli airstrike has targeted and killed a motorcyclist in the Tyre district in southern Lebanon.

Lebanon’s Health Ministry says Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,089 people and wounded at least 9,397 since March 2.

UPDATE 1354 GMT:

The Brent crude oil price has risen around 3.5% amid a report that the Supreme ‌Leader has prohibited Iran’s stock of 60% uranium from being sent abroad.

Brent is now trading at $108.69 per barrel.

UPDATE 0758 GMT:

Iran has restarted drone production during the ceasefire in the US-Israel War, say “sources familiar with US intelligence assessments”.

One US official said intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully restore its drone attack capability in as soon as six months.

“The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC [intelligence community] had for reconstitution,” the official said.

UPDATE 0708 GMT:

Officials have told Axios’ Barak Ravid of a “lengthy and difficult” call between Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, as Washington considers Iran’s proposal to end the US-Israel War.

A US official said Netanyahu’s “hair was on fire” after the conversation.

Trump told Netanyahu that mediators are working on a “letter of intent” to end the war formally and launch a 30-day period of negotiations. Discussions would focus on Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s nuclear program.

Two Israeli sources said Trump and Netanyahu disagreed about the way forward. Israel’s Ambassador has informed US lawmakers about Netanyahu’s concern, the source claimed.

UPDATE 0555 GMT:

Iran has received a Trump Administration response to Tehran’s latest proposal to end the US-Israel War.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson ​Esmaeil Baghaei said, “We have received US views and are reviewing them.”

Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi is again in Tehran to discuss the state of the negotiations with Iranian officials.

Iranian State media said officials are preparing a response. They said the US text has narrowed some gaps, with visits by Naqvi and Pakistan military head Gen. Asim Munir to Tehran trying to reach a point where a memorandum of understanding can be formally accepted.

UPDATE, MAY 21:

Iran has executed two more detainees, Ramin Zaleh and Karim Maroufpour, on charges of creation of a group to disrupt security and membership in a “terrorist” organization.

Iran, alongside China as the world’s leading executioner on a per capita basis, has escalated the hangings during the US-Israel War.

UPDATE 1808 GMT:

US Marines boarded the Iranian-flagged commercial oil tanker M/T Celestial Sea in the Gulf of Oman on Wednesday, suspecting it had violated the American blockade.

US forces released the ship, which was headed toward an Iranian port, after searching it and directing its crew to alter course.

UPDATE 1319 GMT:

The navy of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy says it allowed 26 vessels, including oil tankers, to transit the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours.

The ships passed after “coordination and security provided by the IRGC Navy”.

UPDATE 0917 GMT:

At least 19 people, including four women and three children, were killed across southern Lebanon by Israeli airstrikes on Tuesday.

Overnight Israel struck the town of Jibsheet and near an international school in Habboush. The Israelis later targeted the towns of Kherbet Silem and Toura as well as Kfara in the Bint Jbeil district.

UPDATE 0846 GMT:

Two Chinese tankers laden with oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, shipping data confirms.

The tankers had a total of around 4 million barrels of crude.

A South Korean oil tanker is passing through the Strait, the first crossing by a South Korea-managed ship since the US-Israel War began.

“Consultations with Iranian authorities were completed, and the vessel began sailing yesterday. It is passing through the strait very cautiously,” South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said.

The tanker, carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil, sailed from waters near Qatar on Tuesday after receiving passage approval from Iran a day earlier.

UPDATE 0612 GMT:

According to US officials, Israel planned for the installation of former Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the country’s new leader.

The officials said Ahmadinejad would replace the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, assassinated with other senior officials and commanders in an airstrike on the first day of the US-Israel War on February 28.

Ahmadinejad was supposedly consulted but became wary after he was wounded in an Israeli strike, also on February 28, meant to spring him from house arrest in Tehran. He has not been seen in public since then.

While President from 2005 to 2013, Ahmedinejad declared the necessity to “wipe Israel off the map”. His “victory” in the 2009 disputed Presidential election, declared by the Supreme Leader despite widespread evidence of manipulation and repression, led to protests by millions of Iranians.

Israel also reportedly sought to stir up a rising of Iranian Kurds in the west of the country, arming and assisting the crossing of Iranian Kurdish fighters from Iraq.

When the Kurdish operation failed, the Israelis pursued political collapse with damage to key infrastructure, leading to an “alternative government”.

UPDATE 0606 GMT:

Hosting Vladimir Putin in Beijing, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has said, “A comprehensive ceasefire is of utmost urgency. Resuming hostilities is even more inadvisable, and maintaining negotiations is particularly important.”

UPDATE, MAY 20:

The US Senate has advanced a war powers resolution, requiring the Trump Administration to get Congressional authorization to continue attacks on Iran.

The upper chamber voted 50-47, with four Republicans joining all but one Democrat. It was the eighth attempt to invoke the War Powers Act of 1973.

Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, defeated last week by a Trump-promoted candidate in a Republican primary, joined Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Susan Collins of Maine in voting Yes. Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania was the sole Democrat in opposition, while three Republicans did not vote.

UPDATE 1907 GMT:

The US seized an Iran-linked oil tanker in the Indian Ocean overnight, according to three American officials.

The Skywave was sanctioned by the US in March for its role in transporting Iranian oil. It was likely loaded with more than a million barrels of crude at Iran’s Kharg Island in February.

UPDATE 1425 GMT:

Lebanon’s Health Ministry says Israeli attacks since March 2 have killed at least 3,042 people and injured 9,301 others.

UPDATE 1016 GMT:

Ahead of airstrikes, the Israel Defense Forces have issued evacuation warnings for 12 villages and towns in southern Lebanon.

Residents of Toura, Nabatiyeh at-Tahta, Habboush, al-Bazouriyah, Tayr Debba, Kfar Houneh, Ain Qana, Libbaya, Jibshit, ash-Shehabiyah, Burj al-Shamali, and Houmine al-Faouqaare are instructed to evacuate at least a kilometer away.

UPDATE 0903 GMT:

US officials have leaked details about the calls from the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE that prompted Donald Trump to withdraw his threat of new airstrikes on Iran.

One spoke of “a unified message from Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh…along the lines of ‘give negotiations a chance because if you hit Iran, we will all pay the price for it'”.

According to a second official, Trump told hawkish political allies that the three Arab leaders told him “they don’t want their oil and energy facilities blown up” by Iranian retaliation.

UPDATE 0640 GMT:

A US military official says Iran has used the past month’s ceasefire to reposition ballistic missile launchers.

The official said Iran has worked since April 8 to “dig out scores of bombed ballistic missile sites, move mobile missile launchers, and, despite significant losses, adjust its tactics for any resumption of strikes”.

The US had bombed the portals of sites with underground missiles, collapsing and burying but not destroying them.

The US military official said Iranian commanders, possibly with Russian help, studied the flight patterns of American fighter jets and bombers to counter the strikes. They warned that the downing of a F-15E jet last month and the groundfire that struck an F-35 revealed that American flight tactics had become too predictable.

ORIGINAL ENTRY:

Iran has challenged Donald Trump with its latest proposal to end the US-Israel War.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed on Monday that the regime sent a revised proposal, via Pakistan, to the Trump Administration. The Americans had rejected Tehran’s document “in its entirety” last week.

Iran has proposed discussions of the Strait of Hormuz, reparations and the lifting of sanctions, and a long-term ceasefire in the first stage. The Iranian nuclear programme would be considered in the second stage.

The Ministry did not give details of revisions. However, a “source close to the negotiations” said the Trump camp has proposed a temporary waiver of sanctions on Iran’s oil in return for a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Another Iranian official claimed the Administration is showing flexibility on allowing Iran to maintain limited peaceful nuclear activities. The program would be supervised by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Without referring to the new proposal, Donald Trump declared on social media that he had postponed renewed American strikes so talks continue.

Trump asserted that he had been asked by the leaders of Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia to suspend “our planned Military attack [on Iran], which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place”.

At a White House event, Trump spoke of a “very positive development”. He claimed a deal was imminent that would leave Iran without nuclear weapons, which Tehran has never possessed.

“There seems to be a very good chance that they can work something out. If we can do that without bombing the hell out of them, I’d be very happy,” Trump said.

Trump Administration U-Turns — Again — Over Russian Oil

Unsettled by Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz and high global oil prices, the Administration U-turned yet again on sanctions of Russian maritime oil supplies.

After Saturday’s lapse of a sanctions waiver for countries importing Moscow’s oil, first instituted in mid-March, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced another 30-day extension on Monday afternoon.

“This general license will help stabilize the physical crude market and ensure oil reaches the most energy-vulnerable countries,” Bessent said.

The Secretary had told the Associated Press last month that no further extension was planned.

With the postponement of US military action and the sanctions waiver, the Brent crude oil price fell almost 2% today to $91.14 per barrel. It was just over $60 per barrel when the US-Israel Wars were launched on February 28.

The average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gas in the US is $4.52 per gallon, compared to $2.98 at the start of the wars.