I spoke with BBC West Midlands on Tuesday morning about the US airstrikes in Syria on the Islamic State, going beyond the immediate events to assess the effect on the jihadists, the Assad regime, and the insurgency in the 42-month conflict.

Listen to discussion from 2:11.57

The Assad regime is going to be very worried that the Americans might not only attack the Islamic State but also support the insurgents. The insurgents not only want the Americans to hit the Islamic State but, once and for all, give them serious weapons to fight the battle on the ground against Damascus as well as against the jihadists.

We are only at an early point here. It’s not a question just of what happens with the airstrikes but what happens on the ground in the next few weeks.