After weeks of headline gains by both sides in Syria’s conflict, the Assad regime’s PR took over last week, trying to present only half of the political and military story.
State media put out a barrage of stories claiming support across Syria for Assad, who is facing two nominal challengers in the June 3 election, and the military. It trumpeted “recovery” in Homs, finally pacified by the regime after an evacuation deal for insurgents, and promised that “terrorism” would soon be defeated.
The effort worked well with international media, for example, in Reuters’ summary “Street by Street, Assad Extends Grip in Central Syria“.
It was not as successful in reflecting latest developments.
Near Damascus, the regime’s offensive to claim insurgent-held areas of East Ghouta suffered setbacks: Assad’s forces were repulsed near Mleha, as the head of Syria’s air defense forces was killed.
In Aleppo, the Syrian military’s counter-offensive east of the city appeared to have stalled. Meanwhile, insurgents continue to advance in the northwest, threatening to cut off regime forces in the western half of the city.
In southern Syria, regime troops launched a counter-offensive to push back weeks of insurgent gains between Quneitra and Daraa. Bombardment of towns such as Nawa is hoping to break a corridor of control by opposition fighters along the demilitarized zone with Israel.
Beyond the facade of the Presidential campaign, there was little of significance on the political and humanitarian fronts. United Nations envoy Lakhdar Brahimi finally quit after two years of failed efforts, as the UN admitted that only a fraction of its aid was allowed beyond regime-held areas.
The insurgency tried to counter the regime’s show of unity with its own “Revolutionary Covenant“. A coalition of leading groups, including the Islamic Front, proclaimed a campaign against both the Assad regime and the Islamic State of Iraq and as-Sham. They promised to support human rights, including for ethnicities and minorities, and to promote justice for all Syrians.
FORECAST
The Syrian situation is now in a schizophrenia that favors the Assad regime, at least in the short-term.
The situation on the ground is parallel to the illusion put out on a daily basis by Damascus, summarized in a campaign poster, “If Not for Assad, This Country Would Have Been Burnt”.
The regime’s promotion of its forthcoming victory may not match developments, but it is buying political time as international media portray a resurgent President Assad against a fragmented, despondent opposition. Even if this is an Emperor’s New Clothes election — with everyone realizing, but not necessarily saying, that it is merely a coronation of Assad — the regime hopes that it will provide “legitimacy by default”.
That in turn will bolster Damascus’ effort to isolate the opposition and insurgency from support, gradually wearing down resistance.
FEATURED ANALYSES
Journalists Reduce Conflict to “The Next 9/11″ — The Sequel
Video Analysis: How to Turn The Conflict into “The Next 9/11″
Video Analysis: Does Fall of Homs Mean Assad is Winning?
FEATURED 1ST-HAND
Document: Insurgents Issue “Revolutionary Covenant”
Regime Ensures Almost All UN Aid Goes to Its Areas
Regime Attacked Civilians With Chemical Weapons in April — Human Rights Watch
Is An Insurgent Cut-Off Adding to Water Crisis in Aleppo?
Islamic State of Iraq & Insurgents Battle for Deir Ez Zor
Video: Insurgent Sarout “Homs Will Be a Victory For the Besieged”