Using details provided by the UN weapons inspectors’ report into the August 21 chemical weapons attacks near Damascus, Human Rights Watch (HRW) have produced a map strongly indicating that two of the rockets identified as likely carrying sarin were fired from a military base belonging to the regime’s Republican Guard 104th Brigade.

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To view a larger version of HRW’s map shown above as a featured image, click here.

How did HRW calculate this? Although the UN report does not attempt to apportion blame over the chemical weapons attacks, it does provide azimuths — angular measurements — that HRW have used to calculate the actual trajectory of the rockets, to see where they were fired from.

The report says that, “mpact site number 1 (Moadamiyya) and impact site number 4 (Ein Tarma), provide sufficient evidence to determine, with a sufficient degree of accuracy, the likely trajectory of the projectiles.”

HRW point out that three of the rockets the UN inspected had bearings of 34 and 35 degrees for 2 of the rockets that landed in Moadamiya, and 285 degrees for 1 of the rockets that landed in Ein Tarma.

HRW write:

Connecting the dots provided by these numbers allows us to see for ourselves where the rockets were likely launched from and who was responsible.

The two attack locations are located 16 kilometers apart, but when mapping these trajectories, the presumed flight paths of the rockets converge on a well-known military base of the Republican Guard 104th Brigade, situated only a few kilometers north of downtown Damascus and within firing range of the neighborhoods attacked by chemical weapons.

According to declassified reference guides, the 140mm artillery rocket used on impact site number 1 (Moadamiyya) has a minimum range of 3.8 kilometers and a maximum range of 9.8 kilometers. The Republican Guard 104th Brigade is approximately 9.5 km from the base. While we don’t know the firing range for the 330mm rocket that hit impact site number 4, the area is only 9.6km away from the base, well within range of most rocket systems.

HRW admit:

This isn’t conclusive, given the limited data available to the UN team, but it is highly suggestive and another piece of the puzzle.

However, the data provided do strongly suggest that the rockets were fired from a regime-held military base.