Fires at the Marine Oil Terminal in Russian-occupied Crimea following a Ukrainian missile strike, October 7, 2024

EA on BBC: The Trump-Putin Call on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Monday’s Coverage: Trump — I’ll Discuss With Putin “Dividing Up Certain Assets”

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1805 GMT:

While Vladimir Putin worked on Donald Trump, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Finland.

UPDATE 1746 GMT:

The Kremlin readout of the phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump emphasizes Russia’s conditions on any ceasefire to halt Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The readout said Putin “outlined a number of significant points” requiring further consideration, including on “effective control” over any ceasefire along the line of conflict; Russia’s demand to stop mobilization of Ukrainians and rearming of its armed forces; and its demand to “eliminate the root causes of the crisis” — phrasing to cover the ultimata for a weak, “neutral” Ukraine with no security guarantees from the West and possibly for the removal of the Zelensky Government.

The statement said the Kremlin’s “key condition” is the demand to “completely cease” foreign military aid and intelligence sharing for Ukraine.

Putin agreed to a 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure, and “responded constructively” to the proposal of a ceasefire at sea, according to the readout.

Putin informed Trump of plans for a Russian-Ukrainian swap of 175 prisoners of war on each side, and “as a gesture of goodwill”, a further release of 23 “seriously wounded” Ukrainian servicemen.

In contrast, the White House omits the Russian conditions. Instead, it highlights the pause of attacks on energy infrastructure.

The statement said the two men also agreed on talks for “implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire, and permanent peace” with negotiations in the Middle East.

The White House did not say if Ukraine and European powers will be part of the talks, or whether the US and Russia will return to the direct discussions that they launched last month in Saudi Arabia.

Significantly, Trump and Putin emphasized the removal of sanctions on Moscow by declaring that a future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside”.

“This includes enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved,” they said.

UPDATE 1558 GMT:

As Vladimir Putin woos Donald Trump in a phone call this afternoon, Kremlin officials say all Western arms supplies to Ukraine must stop during a ceasefire, with a priority on a halt to US arms as a “minimum aim”.

Two sources confirmed the condition to Bloomberg.

UPDATE 1529 GMT:

The German Bundestag has approved the historic release of the debt brake, freeing up to €1 trillion for infrastructure and defense production, by 513-207.

The Government required 489 votes for the necessary two-thirds majority.

Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz framed the measure as primarily motivated by “Putin’s war of aggression against Europe”: “A war against Europe, and not just a war against the territorial integrity of Ukraine.”

He warned of Russia’s hostile and disruptive activities against Germany, such as attacks on critical infrastructure, arson, spying, and disinformation campaigns as well as broader “attempts to divide and marginalize the European Union”.

“We will defend ourselves against these attacks on our open society, on our freedom … with everything at our disposal,” he assured. Germany would “rebuild our defense capabilities, in part from scratch”, with priorities in procurement, European satellite systems, and drones.

Lars Klingbeil, head of the Social Democrats, notedf that Ukrainians have been fighting “heroically” for three years “for all of our freedoms” and stressed: “We are on the side of the Ukrainians”.

UPDATE 1054 GMT:

At least two civilians were killed and at least 13 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day.

The civilians were slain and seven wounded by Russian attacks on the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.

The Russians shelled 30 settlements. Twelve private houses, a “point of resilience” shelter, and a civilian vehicle were damaged.

Casualties were also reported in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions.

Air defenses downed 63 of 137 drones launched by Russia on 12 regions overnight. Another 64 were lost to electronic counter-measures.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The Trump Administration is considering recognition of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula, occupied by Moscow’s forces since 2014, as Russian territory, say “two sources familiar with the discussions”.

Officials are also exploring an appeal to the UN to declare Crimea as part of Russia.

The Kremlin proclaimed the seizure of Crimea in March 2014, days after the pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych fled Kyiv amid the Maidan Revolution.

Only six countries — Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Syria, Afghanistan, and North Korea — have recognized Russia’s claim.

Ahead of his long-awaited phone call with Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, Donald Trump has told reporters that US and Russian officials have discussed “dividing up certain assets”.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has argued that compromise might be necessary. On Sunday, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said Ukraine will receive security guarantees in exchange for territorial concessions, but offered little substance beyond the general declaration.

National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes denied any commitments, saying the Administration will not negotiate through the media.

The Zelensky Government has recognized that it cannot retake Crimea with force, but is committed to the peninsula as part of Ukraine. Since 2022, it has proposed a long-term political solution, with an internationally-supervised referndum determining its final status.

In his nightly address to the nation, President Volodymyr Zelensky said:

Tomorrow marks one week since the U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in the sky, at sea, and on the front lines has been on the table. The implementation of this proposal could have begun long ago. Every day in wartime is a matter of human lives.

Now, almost a week later, it’s clear to everyone in the world—even to those who refused to acknowledge the truth for the past three years—that it is Putin who continues to drag out this war. For a week now, Putin has been unable to squeeze out “yes” to the ceasefire proposal. He’s saying whatever he wants, but not what the whole world wants to hear.