Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin wave at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vietnam, November 2017 (Sky)
Ukraine War, Day 1,119: Trump Administration May Recognize Occupied Crimea as Part of Russia
UPDATE, MARCH 19:
I joined Australia’s ABC News on Wednesday to analyze how Vladimir Putin “played Donald Trump like a fiddle” in their phone call, establishing Russia’s ultimata while making the gesture — broken within hours — of a halt of attacks on energy infrastructure.
The Russians have played Donald Trump for almost a decade.
On this occasion, after Ukraine regained the diplomatic initiative, they kept dangling this phone call before Trump. The Kremlin had been put on the defensive, but they knew they could change this with one call.
Now the question is, “How does everyone respond? Ukraine? Europe?” Others such as Australia?”
ORIGINAL ENTRY, MARCH 18: I joined the BBC World Service on Monday night to preview Vladimir Putin’s phone call to Donald Trump, trying to woo the American away from the Ukraine-US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire to pause Russia’s 37-month full-scale invasion.
Listen from 8:44:
I explain the Russian tactics, dangling the call before Trump for weeks, and why they are likely to work with the reality TV star’s affinity for Putin.
I evaluate the likely Russian ultimata to Ukraine which Trump will be asked to support, including recognizing Russia’s “annexation” of 25% of Ukrainian territory; lifting sanctions on Moscow; and keeping Ukraine weak, “neutral”, and demilitarized with bans on NATO membership and security guarantees for Kyiv.
We’ve known that for almost a decade that this is what Putin does to Donald Trump. He pulls him aside like he did in 2017 at a G20 meeting in Germany. He gets him at a summit like he did in 2018 at Finland. Through a combination of both flattering Trump and then putting Trump down, he actually advances Moscow’s goals.
And we need to be very clear what those goals are here. Putin and the Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are still pushing the maximalist Russian position.
