Kurds, already displaced from Afrin, forced to leave the Tal Rifaat area because of recent rebel offensive in northern Syria (Izzadin Saleh)
The Russia-Iran-Assad “Axis of the Vulnerable” Is Cracking in Syria
With the lightning success of the 11-day offensive by the Islamist faction Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel groups and the fall of the Assad regime, a new question comes to the fore.
Will a Syrian transitional government, backed by Turkey, accept the Kurdish-led autonomous zone in the northeast of the country?
It was not only the Assad regime which lost territory, from Idlib to Aleppo to Hama Provinces, in northwest Syria. Kurdish-led authorities and the Syrian Democratic Forces were pushed out of some areas, and they are threatened in cities such as Manbij, where heavy street battles took place between Turkish-backed forces and the Kurdish-led SDF.
“Historic Moments”
In their immediate responses to Assad’s fall, Kurdish officials expressed hope.
“In Syria, we are living through historic moments as we witness the fall of the authoritarian regime in Damascus. This change presents an opportunity to build a new Syria based on democracy and justice that guarantees the rights of all Syrians,” Mazloum Abdi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces, tweeted.
Kurdish Foreign Affairs Minister Ilham Ahmed echoed, “The era of tyranny has ended. Today, we close the chapter of the past and open the door to hope, uniting the efforts of Syrians for a better future based on justice and democracy. Let us silence the sound of bullets and make dialogue the foundation for peace and reconstruction.”
But the rebel advances have been a wake-up call for the Kurds to go on the defensive, as the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army seized Tal Rifaat in northern Aleppo Provincefrom the SDF-linked People’s Protection Forces (YPG) on December 1. The assault pushed out tens of thousands of Kurds, displaced from the Kurdish center of Afrin by a rebel offensive in 2018, who were living in IDP camps.
Turkish-backed groups have claimed they will try to take Manbij, which like Tal Rifaat was taken by the SDF from the Islamic State in 2016. On Sunday, the SNA launched a heavy assault on Manbij, with Turkish media claiming success. SDF sources later said the offensive was repelled.
A Failed Corridor
During the HTS-led offensive on Aleppo city, Kurdish-backed YPG fighters moved into the Industrial Zone and entered the airport, attempting to create a corridor between northern Aleppo Province and Manbij.
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army countered with Operation Dawn of Freedom on November 30, occupying the Assad regime’s Kuweires Military Airport, taking the Kurdish-inhabited towns of Tal Aran and Tel Hassel, and trying to attack Manbij.
SDF Commander-in-Chief Abdi confirmed on December 2:
As the Syrian army and its allies collapsed and withdrew, we intervened to open a humanitarian corridor between our eastern regions, Aleppo, and the Tal Rifaat area to protect our people from massacres.
However, attacks by armed groups supported by the Turkish occupation cut off this corridor. Our forces bravely defended our people in Aleppo, Tal Rifaat, and Shahba.
The Turkish Defense Ministry has stated that Ankara will not let the YPG and Turkey’s PKK exploit instability in Syria, rejecting the denial of the SDF and YPG — supported by the US — of any affiliation with the Turkish insurgents.
While the SNA was on the offensive against the SDF, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham reached a deal for the SDF’s handover of Aleppo’s airport and the Kurdish neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiya in the city. SDF fighters remained in Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiya with minimal skirmishes, and the leader of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), Salih Muslim, says he is ready for dialogue with the HTS.
But now all roads to northeastern Syria are controlled by the SNA. There are intense clashes near Deir Hafer, south of Manbij. Tens of thousands of displaced Kurds left for the northeast on December 2 after the SNA moved into Tal Rifaat, but about 15,000 are stuck in northern Aleppo, blocked by the Turkish-backed rebels.
The SDF has strengthened its position in the northeast in Deir ez-Zor and in southern Raqqa Province after the regime and Iran-backed militias withdrew, including from the Deir ez-zor military airport and the strategic Abu Kamal border crossing with Iraq.
However, the SDF could be challenged in the near-future by former tribal militias previously backed by the Assad regime or armed groups that receive support from Turkey. It also remains to be seen if a future Syrian transition government will accept SDF control over theimportant Iraqi border and important oil and gas resources in Deir ez-Zor.
Iraqi Kurdish reaction
Iraqi Kurdish parties have been mostly silent, although media in Iraqi Kurdistan widely covered the events in northern Syria. Top Kurdish officials did discuss the situation with foreign diplomats from Russia, Turkey, the UAE, and Italy, before the fall of Assad.
Mohammed Salih, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, says the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and its main parties — the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) — had been waiting for the outcome.
So, the wise thing is perhaps to wait and see. Another lesson learned is that siding with any regional camp in what’s going on will be risky and likely backfire as did with the KDP’s positioning itself in the early years of the Syria conflict with the Turkish side.
But if the situation develops in a way that they feel threatened by the reignited conflict in Syria or if there is serious danger against Kurds in Syria, we might see more of an outspoken and pro-active approach from the Kurdistan Region to mitigate the risks, as much as they can.
KDP President Masoud Barzani issued a cautious statement on Friday:
We hope that these developments and changes in Syria will lead to adopting dialogue and understanding as a basis for resolving outstanding issues, and that no act will be practiced that results in deepening national and sectarian differences between the components of Syria.
We also look forward to see the concerned parties reaching an agreement through peaceful means that serves the interests of all components of Syria and achieves coexistence, peace and stability.
Uncertainty
The current fluid situation in northeast Syria presents both opportunities and challenges for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). While expanding in Deir ez-Zor and southern Raqqa, they faced significant setbacks in Aleppo and the displacement of thousands of Kurds.
The continued presence of the YPG in two neighbourhoods Aleppo city now hinges on the tolerance of HTS, and it is possible that Turkish-backed groups will continue to attack on Manbij or other cities.
It is also unclear what the future policy of incoming US President Donald Trump will be amid the current chaos in Syria and the formation of a new transitional Syrian government in Damascus.
