Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iran’s Supreme Leader
Israel’s Deadly — But Inconclusive — Message With Killing of Hamas Leader Haniyeh
Thirteen days after Israel’s targeted assassination of Hamas political head Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran’s regime is maintaining the uncertainty: when it retaliate and, if so, how?
I joined RTE Radio 1’s Philip Boucher-Hayes on Tuesday to analyze the dilemma for the regime. It does not want a direct war with Israel, given that it would be outgunned and that it faces serious economic and social problems at home. But if it takes no action, it looks weak in the face of the brazen Israeli attack.
Listen to Discussion
The best guess is that the regime will replicate the “demonstration” missile and drone strikes of April, notifying other countries in advance and telegraphing the attacks on sparsely-populated areas.
But that’s still just a guess.
I think the Iranians play this politically. They play that they are the victim and Israel continues to be the aggressor, across the region and of course in Gaza. So it’s Israel who should be isolated.
Israelis are genius. In a concerted effort they detonate scores of personal “pagers” causing serious injuries among hezbolah and iranian ambassador…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/17/hundreds-of-hezbollah-members-hurt-in-lebanon-after-pagers-explode
Israel says 300 Hezbollah drones and rockets evaded Iron Dome: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/25/israel-hezbollah-strike-latest/
“More than 300 rockets and drones fired by militant group Hezbollah reached Israeli territory, an Israeli spokesperson said in a press conference this afternoon. The barrage followed a “preemptive strike” by Israeli forces against Hezbollah early this morning, raising fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Hezbollah projectiles reached central Israel, the spokesperson said, but he would not confirm details of any damage………Israel introduced a censorship order this afternoon, banning journalists from reporting on details of any damage caused by the Hezbollah attack.”
Iran and Yemen are preparing to intervene if Israel hits Lebanon hard.
” t does not want a direct war with Israel, given that it would be outgunned and that it faces serious economic and social problems at home. But if it takes no action, it looks weak in the face of the brazen Israeli attack.”
Iran and its allies are not “outgunned” against Israel alone. They only become outgunned if the US and its allies decide to support Israel and any counter-offensive (or if the Israelis use their nuclear weapons). If Iran does overtly retaliate, it will not be a telegraphed demonstration attack this time. It will be to try and destroy much of Israeli air defenses and its air force on the ground. Israeli officials could also be targeted. But Iran does not want to be seen as having started a regional war and that it why it is giving diplomacy and the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza a last chance.
It looks your masters let you out of the kennel….
“But Iran does not want to be seen as having started a regional war and that it why it is giving diplomacy and the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza a last chance.”
The mullah state knows a wider war will end their existence.
Iran not expected to attack Israel if Gaza ceasefire is agreed, says Joe Biden: https://www.ft.com/content/272df320-c9be-4b4e-bb88-81af351b8ef6
“US President Joe Biden said he does not expect Iran to carry out a retaliatory strike on Israel in response to the assassinations of Hamas and Hizbollah leaders if a deal is reached to end the war in Gaza and secure the release of Israeli hostages.”
Of course, the United States could tomorrow force Israel to stop firing but has not done that so far.