Hamas political head Ismail Haniyeh with Iran’s Supreme Leader, July 30, 2024


Hamas Leader Haniyeh Killed in Iran — Is Israel Responsible?


UPDATE, AUG 2:

I joined Dublin NewsTalk on Friday to talk further about the potential for Israel-Iran confrontation following Wednesday’s assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Listen to Discussion

Iran’s Supreme Leader has reportedly ordered “direct” retaliation, but I continue to assess that his options are limited amid the Islamic Republic’s economic and social difficulties and the risks of a wider fight with Israel.

Israel, having returned to targeted assassinations and having done so in such a high-profile manner, has said, “We’ve made our move. The ball’s in your court. If you hit us, we will hit back even harder.”

There’s rhetoric and there’s reality. The Supreme Leader and other Iranian leaders are pledging “harsh punishment”, but then there is the question of what Iran could do without sparking a direct war.


ORIGINAL ENTRY, JULY 31: I joined India’s First Post and Ireland’s RTE Radio 1 on Wednesday morning to analyze Israel’s assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and the consequences for the Middle East, Iran, and the war in Gaza.

Watch Firstpost from 6:17:

I outline Israel’s definition of a “harsh but contained” approach with the targeted assassinations.

The Israelis have told Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran, “The ball’s in your court. Are you trying to hit back at us? Because if you do, we will hit you even harder.”

Secondly, this puts the idea of a ceasefire in Gaza on hold for some time.

Listen to RTE Radio 1 from 7:37

I discuss with Aine Kerr the effect of Haniyeh’s killing on negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza — “the negotiations, I must emphasize, were already stalled out primarily because of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu”.

In a broader sense, Israel has sent a deadly message not just to Hamas but also Hezbollah and their backer Iran over what happens in the region: “We will hit you, and we will hit you hard.”

I explain why Iran’s options for a response are limited, “They’re in a bit of disarray,” amid “serious economic problems, a serious social situation, and a problem with regime legitimacy”.

And I note that the killing “buys time for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu”, amid the difficulties with his open-ended war in Gaza.