EA on Australia’s The World: Ukraine War — Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Battle Inside Moscow

Friday’s Coverage: Power Unaffected by Latest Russian Missile Barrage

Source: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1553 GMT:

Poland has called for accelerated consideration of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told the Munich Security Conference:

We cannot compare what is happening in Ukraine with a ‘normal or almost normal accession process.

Think outside the box. We live at a turning point in history; we must change almost everything in Europe, and therefore, we must create a new process for Ukraine. A fast track is synonymous for it.

UPDATE 1548 GMT:

Russian shelling has killed a civilian and wounded two in the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine.

The fatality occurred when a shell hit a private home in the city of Vovchansk, a few miles from the Russian border. In the village of Kivsharivka, a 57-year-old woman and a 53-year-old man were injured.

Governor Oleh Syniehubov said shelling across the region damaged civilian infrastructure and a building for the provision of emergency medical aid.

UPDATE 0915 GMT:

Ukraine’s air raid alerts ended with no reported Russian attacks.

The Ukraine Air Force said four Russian Kalibr cruise missiles were fired from a warship in the Black Sea. Two were shot down by air defenses.

UPDATE 0900 GMT:

Air raid alerts have sounded across Ukraine.

Two explosions have been heard in Khmelnytskyi in western Ukraine. Two people were injured.

Officials in southern and eastern regions of Ukraine have said precautionary power outages may be neceesary to limit damage to the grid if the Russians launch strikes.

UPDATE 0704 GMT:

In the latest volley in his “informational counteroffensive against the conventional Russian military establishment“, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin has accused the Defense Ministry of responsibility for mass casualties on the frontline in Ukraine.

On Thursday, Prigozhin blamed “monstrous military bureaucracy” for the slow advance and heavy losses in the offensive in eastern Ukraine. A Wagner video featured artillerymen claiming that they are “cut off” from supplies of ammunition.

Wagner-affiliated Telegram channels are claiming (falsely) that the mercenaries are the only formation currently advancing in Ukraine, tagging the Defense Ministry in the posts.

US officials estimate that Wagner has suffered more than 30,000 casualties, including about 9,000 fighters killed.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said, “About half of those 9,000 have been killed since mid-December.” Almost 90% of the slain were recruited convicts.

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said Thursday that Wagner and Russian-proxy groups are losing up to 80% of some assault units on the frontline near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Poland has announced its readiness to give fighter jets to Ukraine — and the Biden Administration has signalled that it will not stand in the way.

Speaking with Ukrainian media, President Andrzej Duda said on Friday that Warsaw will consider the transfer of Soviet-era MiG-29 jets, currently in service with the Polish Air Force.

Duda added that Poland will join any coalition to provide US-made F-16s, fulfilling the long-standing request of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

EA on Monocle 24 and Ireland’s RTE: Fighter Jets for Ukraine?

Duda indicated a preference to deliver the MiG-29s, explaining that the training of crews for the F-16s would be a “long process” requiring months. In contrast, Ukrainian pilots could just fly pthe MiG-29s] home right away.”

He added that Poland does not have enough F-16s — Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak says only 48 are in service — and Warsaw is awaiting F-35 and FA-50 jets from the US and South Korea.

Jets Will Eventually Be Sent”

Commenting on the possible supply of the MiG-29s, developed in the 1970s by the Soviet Union as an air superiority fighter, Biden Administration spokesman John Kirby said:

We have never dictated to another partner what they can or can’t give or on what timeline. And if — if one of our allies and partners wants to provide fighter aircraft to President Zelensky, that’s certainly a sovereign decision that they have every right to make, and we would welcome that.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba assured, “There is no doubt that the issue of warplanes will be resolved,” although it may take more time.

In the past week, the UK has stepped back from its statement that fighter jets could be provided, and Germany has said it will not deliver any.

But Kuleba explained, “There will be many more statements like ‘no, we can’t, not so soon’, but everything will eventually be sent.”

The picture is simple: when the war began, we understood that we needed to get seven types of weapons in order to make our defense forces capable not only of defending Ukraine, but also of effectively attacking and expelling the enemy from the territory of Ukraine.

Almost 12 months on, six of these types of weapons have been opened for Ukraine….Only the warplanes remain.”