Aftermath of a Russian strike amid a wave of 36 missiles, February 16, 2023 (Serhii Lysak/Telegram)

EA on Australia’s The World: Ukraine War — Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Battle Inside Moscow

Thursday’s Coverage: Russia Missile Strike on Lviv in West

Source: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1413 GMT:

Bloomsberg Economics estimates that Russia will suffer a relative loss of $190 billion in GDP — equivalent to the annual GDP of Hungary or Kuwait — by 2026 because of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s Central Bank says the GDP contraction was 2.5% in 2022, but Bloomsberg notes an accelaration with the decline, including a 4.6% loss from October to December.

The analysts note that Russia’s oil revenue is declining — some estimates say by 40% — after the European Union, G7, and US imposed price caps. The Kremlin is having to spend more on social programs after the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of men hollowed out the labor market.

“The effect of the sanctions is prolonged,” says Oleg Vyugin, a former top Russian Central Bank and Finance Ministry official. “And the sanctions process hasn’t ended. More and more new ones are being introduced.”

UPDATE 1356 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has addressed the Munich Security Conference.

Speaking in English via a video link, he portrayed Ukraine’s resistance against the Russian invasion to David v Goliath, even though Kyiv does not “have yet David’s sling from Israel” —- an implicit reference to his meeting with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen in Kyiv on Thursday and Israel’s public refusal to provide military assistance, including the David’s Sling air defense system.

Noting that most Europeans support Ukrainian membership of the European Union, he said Ukraine is “already united with the European economy, logistics and energy”, but quick provision of military assistance is essential “because it is speed that lives depend on”.

The President added that as the West deliberates over tank supplies to Ukraine, the Kremlin is thinking about ways to “strangle” neighboring Moldova.

He assured that Goliath has already started to “lose his ground” and will “definitely fall already this year”. However, allies must ensure there is “no alternative to our victory”.


[slider]

UPDATE 1109 GMT:

Russian officials are offering money for people to attend a concert and rally on February 22 in Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium.

Vladimir Putin is expected to attend the event, a day after he addresses the Federal Assembly.

Advertisements promise each extra 500 rubles (almost $7.00) and merchandise.

UPDATE 1037 GMT:

A day after reports of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stepping from support of Ukraine’s liberation of Crimea (see Thursday 0749 GMT), Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland has expressed Washington’s support for Ukrainian attacks on Russian military targets on the occupied peninsula.

Speaking in Washington at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Nuland called for the withdrawal of Russian forces:

No matter what the Ukrainians decide about Crimea in terms of where they choose to fight, Ukraine is not going to be safe unless Crimea is at a minimum, at a minimum, demilitarized.

She continued with reference to Ukrainian attacks on Russian military positions, “Those are legitimate targets, Ukraine is hitting them and we are supporting that.”

Russia Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova reacted with the false claim that Crimea is part of Russia: “The American warmongers…are inciting the Kyiv regime to further escalate, simply to transfer the war to the territory of our country. Like this, direct strikes.”

UPDATE 0919 GMT:

In a meeting with Keir Starmer, leader of the UK opposition Labour Party, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has emphasized the need for a special tribunal to prosecute the Russian leadership for its crime of aggression.

“It is necessary to ensure justice. Ukrainians who lost their relatives are waiting for it,” Zelenskiy said.

The two men also discussed the military situation, sanctions on Russia, confiscation of Russian assets and their use in Ukrainian reconstruction.

Zelenskiy thanked Starmer for the UK’s military support while reiterating the need to obtain fighter aircraft and long-range weapons.

The President said of his visit to London last week, “I was overwhelmed by the way I was received. I thank the Parliament, the government, and all the British people for the support your country is giving us in these difficult times.”

See also Ukraine War, Day 351: Zelenskiy’s London Triumph — But Will It Bring Fighter Jets?

UPDATE 0855 GMT:

Three civilians have been slain and seven injured by Russian attacks across the Kherson region in southern Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

Two were killed and one injured by Russian shelling on the Beryslav district.

Residential buildings were damaged in four communities.

UPDATE 0851 GMT:

Ukraine’s energy grid is working without consumption limits today except in Odesa, where “due to damaged infrastructure there are still restrictions” and “power outage schedules are applied”.

UPDATE 0649 GMT:

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, with his influence in Moscow apparently slipping, is continuing his battle with Russia’s military and political leaders.

In online messages, Prigozhin blamed “monstrous military bureaucracy” for the slow advance and heavy losses in the offensive in eastern Ukraine.

After months of attacks — led by Wagner’s mercenaries and convicts recruited by Prigozhin — the Russians have only captured one small town, Soledar, in the Donetsk region. They are still unabel to surround the city of Bakhmut.

Prigozhin held out the prospect of eventual conquest of Bakhmut, a symbolic target for Russian leaders, “I think it’s (going to be in) March or in April”. However, he added:

To take Bakhmut you have to cut all supply routes. It’s a significant task. Progress is not going as fast as we would like.

Bakhmut would have been taken before the New Year, if not for our monstrous military bureaucracy.

Wagner Group artillerymen amplified the criticism with a video, posted on social media on Thursday, in which they claimed that they are “cut off” from supplies of ammunition.

Asked to comment on the video, Prigozhin said the artillerymen are effective fighters simply asking for necessary supplies for success on the battlefield. He said he has had to appeal personally to “offices in Moscow” to secure resources.

UPDATE 0641 GMT:

Five civilians have been killed and nine wounded in Bakhmut, near the frontline in eastern Ukraine, by Russian Grad rockets and tube artillery.

The office of Ukraine’s Prosecutor General said the attack on a residential area is being investigated as a war crime.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine has withstood Russia’s 15th wave of missile and drone strikes since October 10, with power unaffected by the assault.

Ukrainian officials said 16 of 36 Russian missiles were downed on Thursday morning. The shootdown rate was among the lowest during the attacks. That was primarily because of Moscow’s extensive use of the Kh-22 anti-ship missile, which is able to evade air defenses.

However, Energy Minister German Galushchenko and State grid operator Ukrenergo said there was no major damage and thus no need for emergency outages.

A Russian missile did strike Ukraine’s largest oil refinery.

One fatality was reported, a 79-year-old woman in the city of Pavlohrad in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Two other people were injured in the same strike.

The Russian strikes have been diminishing in pace and intensity, possibly because of the exhaustion of stocks. Thursday’s 36 mssiles compared to more than 100 in the biggest waves.

The assault was the fourth wave this year, including one on February 9.