Donald Trump overruled Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton in calling off US strikes inside Iran (Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty)

FRIDAY FEATURES

EA on Monocle 24: Inside Trump’s Head — Why He Vetoed US Airstrikes
EA on talkRADIO: UK Arms to Saudi Arabia Suspended; Trump and US-Iran Confrontation
EA on talkRADIO: Predicting Trump’s Veto of Iran Response; Analysing UK Race to Become Prime Minister

UPDATE 1315 GMT:

In the midst of a rambling stream of tweets, Donald Trump has explained his approval and then veto of US airstrikes inside Iran.

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Trump also derided the 2015 nuclear deal, from which he withdrew in May 2018, with the false claim that Barack Obama “gave [the Iranians] 150 Billion Dollars plus 1.8 Billion Dollars in CASH!”.

He insisted that comprehensive US sanctions, imposed last November and tightened this spring, meant, “Now they are Bust!”

UPDATE 1230 GMT:

The US Federal Aviation Administration has issued an emergency order prohibiting all American flights in Iran-controlled airspace above the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Dutch carrier KLM has also suspended flights and UAE carrier Emirates is diverting flights away from “areas of possible conflict”. Australia’s Qantas and British Airways have also announced changes.

UPDATE 1220 GMT:

An Iranian official said Tehran received an overnight message from Donald Trump, through Oman, that a US attack on Iran was imminent but that Trump wanted to initiate discussions.

In his message, Trump said he was against any war with Iran and wanted to talk to Tehran about various issues….He gave a short period of time to get our response but Iran’s immediate response was that it is up to the Supreme Leader.

A second official expanded, “We made it clear that the Leader is against any talks, but the message will be conveyed to him to make a decision….However, we told the Omani official that any attack against Iran will have regional and international consequences.”

The commander of the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, claimed that Iran had refrained from targeting a “P-8 spy plane with 35 crew on board” near the US drone.

“We could have shot at [the plane], but we did not do so,” Hajizadeh said.

He claimed a last warning was issued 10 minutes before the drone was shot down at 4:05 a.m.

A US official confirmed a P-8 aircraft was in the area, but said it carries a maximum of 9 crew.

UPDATE 1215 GMT:

The downed US drone was a high-flying prototype model belonging to the Navy. It was one of four Broad Area Maritime Surveillance Demonstrators deployed on an emergency basis over Syria and Iran.

The prototype, a variant of the RQ-4 Global Hawk, is the size of a 737 passenger jet. It can circle at up to 65,000 feet for up to 30 hours.

ORIGINAL ENTRY:

Donald Trump vetoes US military strikes inside Iran, after the Revolutionary Guards downed an American surveillance drone on Thursday.

Trump initially approved the strikes, but in the evening he reverted back to his line of stepping away from military confrontation.

The latest chapter in the conflict between the Trump Administration and the Iranian regime began at 4:05 a.m. local time when the US RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drone was downed in Hormozgan Province in southern Iran.

The Iranians said the drone was in Iranian airspace as it flew from the oil waterway Strait of Hormuz towards the port city of Chabahar. US Central Command said the drone was in international airspace over the Strait when the Revolutionary Guards launched an “unprovoked attack”.

Supporters of a response soon presented plans for the US strikes, including on radar and anti-aircraft missile batteries. The attacks were scheduled just before dawn Friday to minimize risk to Iranian military personnel and civilians.

However, they faced a Trump who has been increasingly prominent in arguing against any American military action.

On Monday, Trump told Time magazine that attacks on shipping — including last week’s explosions disabling two tankers in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz — “very minor incidents” and that Tehran was becoming less hostile in its rhetoric towards the US. Sources inside and close to the Administration said Trump had ordered officials to back off any tough talk.

See Iran Daily, June 20: Trump to Officials — Tone Down Tough Talk
Iran Daily, June 19: Trump — Attack on Tankers “Very Minor”; Tehran Becoming Less Hostile to US

Yesterday as media played up the likelihood of US strikes, Trump signaled the other way. He told reporters in the Oval Office:

Probably Iran made a mistake. I would imagine it was a general or somebody who made a mistake in shooting that drone down.

I find it hard to believe it was intentional. I think it could’ve been somebody that was loose and stupid.

Still, journalists preferred to focus on Trump’s tweet, “Iran made a very big mistake!”, as a sign that US action was imminent. As late as 7 p.m., military and diplomatic officials expected operations after debate at the White House among Trump’s top national security officials and Congressional leaders.

Top Pentagon officials urged caution, warning of the risks to US forces in the region of escalation. But Secretary of State Mike Pompeo; National Security Advisor John Bolton; and CIA Director Gina Haspel all supported the strikes.

A “senior administration official” said planes were in the air and ships were in position, when the military was stood down.

Trump’s Motives?

Trump also checked a ramp-up of US military pressure last month, led by National Security Advisor John Bolton, as a US carrier strike force was moved towards the Persian Gulf and bombers were stationed in Qatar. Officials said he chided Bolton as a man pursuing “four wars” at once.

Trump’s motives are unclear. But he has sought a face-to-face meeting with Iran’s leaders, he provided phone numbers for Tehran to contact — a comment that brought derision from the Iranian regime as the Supreme Leader rejected any negotiations with the US as “poison”.

Trump may also see any war as detrimental to his 2020 re-election campaign.

During the 2016 race, Trump — having supported the Iraq War of 2003 — rewrote the record and said he opposed the US intervention because it was a disastrous and expensive attempt to take oil supplies. In recent weeks, Trump has said that the US no longer needs oil from the Middle East and Iran.

Officials have even said that Trump may have been influenced by his friend, Fox TV polemicist Tucker Carlson, who has been privately advising Trump against any military action and criticized “hawkish members” of the Administration.

Neither the White House nor Pentagon offered any clue over the reasons for Trump’s veto on action, declining to comment. Trump stayed off Twitter last night.