PHOTO: Southern Front officers in operations room in Quneitra Province, June 2015
Reports are circulating this morning that the largest rebel factions in southern Syria will soon announce the formation of Jaish al-Sham (the Syria Army) to pursue the offensive against the Assad regime.
Meanwhile, rebels and opposition activists are criticizing the US for holding back military assistance. The critics claim that the Americans have tried to prevent the rebel Southern Front from capturing all of Daraa city, fearing that this would further an advance on Damascus collapsing the Assad regime and leading to a vacuum in power which would be exploited by “extremists”.
The US also reportedly blocked aid to check a rebel offensive this spring which reached the borders of Sweida province, along the Jordanian border, because this might unsettle relations with the Druze community.
In this context, the International Crisis Group has released a 38-page report calling for “A New Approach in Southern Syria“. The Executive Summary and Conclusion:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Syrian war rages on, its devastating civilian toll rising with no viable political solution in sight. Diplomacy is stymied by the warring parties’ uncompromising positions, reinforced by political deadlock between their external backers. The U.S. is best placed to transform the status quo. A significant but realistic policy shift focused on dissuading, deterring or otherwise preventing the regime from conducting aerial attacks within opposition-held areas could improve the odds of a political settlement. This would be important, because today they are virtually nil. Such a policy shift could begin in southern Syria, where conditions are currently most favourable.
While the White House has declared its desire for an end of President Bashar Assad’s rule, it has shied from concrete steps toward this goal, pursuing instead a strategy to “degrade and ultimately destroy” the Islamic State (IS), which it deems a more serious threat to its interests. Yet, a year into that strategy, the overall power of Salafi-jihadi groups in Syria (as in Iraq) has risen. This is no surprise: the Assad regime’s sectarian strategy, collective punishment tactics and reliance on Iran-backed militias, among other factors, help perpetuate ideal recruitment conditions for these groups. By attacking IS while ignoring the regime’s ongoing bombardment of civilians, the U.S. inadvertently strengthens important aspects of the Salafi-jihadi narrative depicting the West as colluding with Tehran and Damascus to subjugate Sunnis.
Salafi-jihadi groups, including IS and Jabhat al-Nusra, Al-Qa’eda’s Syrian affiliate which fights both IS and the regime, are strongest in the north and east, where they have exploited disarray and conflicting priorities among the opposition’s external sponsors. While the U.S. has attached greatest importance to the battle against IS, for example, Turkey has pressed for a more concerted effort to topple the Assad regime, while pushing back against Kurdish groups allied with Iran. Continuing disagreement has prevented establishment of a northern no-fly zone, a key Turkish demand.
Southern Syria currently provides the best environment for a new approach. Beginning in early 2014, increased assistance from Western and Arab states and improved coordination among the southern armed opposition factions they support sparked a string of victories against regime forces, enabling these factions to gain strength relative to Salafi-jihadi groups. With these factions in the lead, by late January 2015 opposition forces had gained control over contiguous territory encompassing most of Quneitra province and the western third of Deraa province. A major regime counter-offensive the next month south of Damascus, with unprecedented Iranian and Hizbollah support, recaptured only a small share of territory and failed to halt the momentum of opposition forces that extended their territory through much of eastern Deraa between March and June. An opposition offensive is ongoing in late summer to capture the portion of Deraa’s provincial capital still under regime control.
Some of this success can be attributed to the steady erosion of regime military capacity, which manpower constraints suggest will continue. This may force Assad to deepen reliance on Iran-backed militias in areas he fears losing, or concede these to the opposition and resort to aerial attacks (including barrel bombs) to keep them ungovernable. In either scenario, Salafi-jihadi groups would gain further traction, lowering prospects for resolving the conflict politically. Avoiding this requires a joint strategy among the opposition’s backers to empower credible opposition elements to fill the military and civil voids on the ground by establishing effective civil administrations. The south, where Salafi-jihadi groups are weakest, is the most favourable starting ground.
As has become clear throughout Syria, however, opposition elements cannot build effective governance amid the death and destruction caused by aerial bombardment, particularly given the regime’s tendency to target precisely those facilities necessary for capacity to emerge. Diplomatic admonitions which are not backed by concrete action carry little weight with the regime’s backers, and are unlikely to halt Assad’s use of air attacks as part of a scorched-earth strategy and a way to mete out collective punishment. The U.S. needs to be ready to pursue other means at its disposal, and to signal that readiness.
The Obama Administration has sought to avoid that deeper involvement in the conflict, due to scepticism about what a more robust policy could achieve and concern that the regime’s allies might retaliate against U.S. personnel and interests elsewhere. But this conflict will not end without a shift in U.S. policy. In addition to improving living conditions in the south, it could also significantly help in degrading Salafi-jihadi power and otherwise improve prospects for an eventual negotiated end of the war.
It would do so, first, by enabling opposition groups to consolidate military control and establish governance capacity in the south. This would improve their strength and credibility vis-à-vis Salafi-jihadi groups and could incentivise their development as political actors capable of governing their areas.
Secondly, achieving a zone free of aerial attacks in the south could provide a model for a different approach by the rebels’ state backers in the north, where poor coordination and divergent priorities with Ankara, Doha and Riyadh have contributed to a situation not conducive to an escalated U.S. role. A move by Washington to halt regime aerial attacks in the south could signal it would consider doing so in the north as well, if those allies would assist in bringing about a similar shift in the northern balance of power away from Salafi-jihadi groups.
Thirdly, a U.S. push to halt regime air attacks in the south would signal resolve to the regime’s most important backers, Iran and Hizbollah, and demonstrate that the returns on their investments in the status quo will further diminish. Iranian and Hizbollah officials play down the long-term costs of their involvement, believing they can outlast their opponents in a proxy war of attrition, and viewing the price of doing so as preferable to negotiating a resolution that includes an end to Assad’s rule. Their view appears based, in part, on the assumption that Washington’s narrow focus on IS and reluctance to confront the regime are pushing its policy toward accepting Assad’s political survival and thus, ultimately, a resolution of the conflict more favourable to them.
The U.S. initiative described here could help refute that assumption and put weight behind the White House’s assertions that the nuclear deal will not pave the way for Iranian hegemony in the region. This message of resolve should be paired with a parallel one indicating U.S. willingness to take the core interests of the regime’s backers into account in any political deal to end the war.
CONCLUSION
The Syria conflict presents policymakers with excruciating choices. Available options for shifting course tend to be limited and unappealing. Decision-makers within and outside the country have generally preferred to stick with status-quo approaches. Yet that, too, is a choice, and the status quo –– it cannot be emphasised enough –– is disastrous.
Hundreds of Syrians continue to be killed each week, in addition to well over 200,000 already dead in the conflict. More than twelve million need assistance inside the country, and there are more than four million refugees. The war fuels radicalisation,
generating a boom in extremism and sectarian polarisation with capacity to destabilise the surrounding region far beyond Syria’s borders. As the war goes on, the viciousness of that radicalising cycle increases; so long as the military stalemate
continues, we should expect that to remain the case.
Ending this war and escaping that vicious cycle is not a matter of time –– it is a matter of decisions. Resolving the conflict requires fundamental shifts in approach by state backers on both sides: the U.S. must recognise that it cannot contain Salafi-jihadi flames while ignoring the regime’s role in stoking the fire; the opposition’s regional backers must recognise that neither they nor their rebel allies can eliminate Iran’s influence in Syria via military means; and Iran must recognise the unsustainable costs of upholding Assad’s rule through the expanding military intervention of its Revolutionary Guard Corps and proxies.
It is the U.S. that is best placed to take the initiative to positively transform the status quo. Provided the July 2015 nuclear deal survives its test in Congress in September, the White House will have a fresh opportunity to turn to the Syrian portfolio. Steps to deter (or otherwise halt) aerial bombardment of civilian areas would help create conditions on the ground more conducive to an eventual negotiated resolution and also help answer critics at home and abroad who doubt its will to address the
role of Iran and its proxies in Syria. These steps should be paired with a diplomatic initiative aimed not only at Moscow (with which Washington is more comfortable engaging on Syria) but also at Tehran, building on relationships developed during nuclear negotiations.
Iran and the opposition’s regional backers are less capable themselves of shifting the status quo. That the former will receive (via sanctions relief) additional resources to spend in Syria if it so chooses, and that the latter fully expect Tehran to do so suggests that their short-term incentives to invest in current approaches will continue to overshadow the long-term imperatives of addressing the fundamental shortcomings of their respective strategies.
In southern Syria, the U.S. has an opportunity to build on a positive local trend whose reinforcement could strengthen alternatives to Salafi-jihadis while clarifying the incentives and constraints perceived by the conflict’s other external players. Both are vital for improving prospects of a negotiated resolution. Given the prevailing currents of this war, however, there is no reason to assume that the conditions creating this opening will remain for long.
