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SUMMARY: After a six-month break, formal talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers over Tehran’s nuclear program resume today in Geneva.
On Monday, officials of the 5+1 (US, Britain, France, China, Russia, and Germany) met with Iranian counterparts, while Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the European Union’s foreign policy head Catherine Ashton (pictured), the lead negotiator for the 5+1, had a working dinner.
Iran has said it will table renewed proposals today. They are likely to include calls for the 5+1 to recognize Tehran’s right to enrich uranium and for the US and European powers to lift sanctions.
In return, Iran may offer to suspend its enrichment of 20% uranium, limiting its programme to 5% stock, provided it has a guaranteed supply of the higher-level fuel for its Tehran Research Reactor.
The US, which insisted this spring on a full cessation of Iran’s 20% program before any significant easing of sanctions, has not indicated how it would respond to the Iranian proposals.
A “senior Obama administration official” was cautious in a briefing to reporters on Monday night:
We are ready to listen to [the Iranian presentation], and to go to work if it is substantive and concrete.
At the same time, we go into these meetings clear-eyed about the fact that we have very, very difficult work to do….No one should expect a breakthrough overnight. These issues are too complicated. And as the President said, the history of mistrust is very deep.
Latest Updates, Most Recent First
1-Hour US-Iran Bilateral Discussion “Useful”
American officials have said Tuesday night’s bilateral discussion between the US and Iranian lead negotiators was “useful”.
A “senior State Department official” said:
As had been expected, Under Secretary [Wendy] Sherman and members of the US delegation held a bilateral meeting with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Araqchi and members of the Iranian delegation tonight, as the Iranians are doing with a number of delegations during these talks,”
The meeting took place at the UN Palais des Nations and lasted for approximately one hour,. The discussion was useful, and we look forward to continuing our discussions in tomorrow’s meetings with the full P5+1 [5+1 Powers] and Iran.
Car Production Slows to Trickle in 2013
Jason Rezaian of The Washington Post publishes an overview of the declining Iranian automobile industry:
This year alone, car production has plunged by 40 percent. From a rank of 13th in the world two years ago, Iran has fallen to 21st. And in the first half of 2013, the country shipped only 1,456 cars abroad — a trickle compared with 2012.
The falloff reflects the crumbling of a key state-run Iranian industry, one that planners had hoped might one day help diversify an economy that remains highly dependent on energy. As government employees, autoworkers enjoy job protection, but their factories now lie increasingly idle.
“We see that many workers in the factories are just sitting around or playing chess,” Ahmad Nemat Bakhsh, secretary of the Iran Vehicle Manufacturing Association, told reporters last week.
US & Iran Negotiators in Bilateral Meeting Tonight
Mehrzad Kohanrouz of BBC Persian reports a positive sign from Geneva:
THIS IS OFFICIAL – #IRAN deputy FM @Araqchi holding bilateral meeting now with US UnderSec Wendy #Sherman
— Mehrzad Kohanrouz (@Mehrzadbbc) October 15, 2013
Earlier, the spokesperson for European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers, put out the positive message, “For the first time, we had very detailed technical discussions, which carried on this afternoon. We will continue these discussions tomorrow.”
“We heard a presentation this morning from Foreign Minister Zarif. It was very useful,” Michael Mann said.
Will Iran Agree To Temporarily Implement The Additional Protocol Allowing More Inspections?
The New York Times’ Tehran bureau chief Thomas Erdbrink speculates on Twitter about what Iran’s proposal to the P5+1 could look like:
Here is what I think could be a part of the Iran proposal: temporarily implementing the Additional Protocol, allowing more inspections (1)
— Thomas Erdbrink (@ThomasErdbrink) October 15, 2013
More inspections would be allowed as talks between Iran and world powers continue and 2, maybe more obvious capping nuclear fuel production
— Thomas Erdbrink (@ThomasErdbrink) October 15, 2013
Erdbrink goes on to note that, “Signatories of the Additional Protocol allow more inspections but whether Iran undeclared sites will also be opened will be under discussion…Inspections of ‘undeclared sites’ means basically everywhere in Iran where the IAEA suspects involvement in its nuclear program….A symbolic case of an undeclared site is the Parchin military base, the lights of which I can see from my kitchen window here in Tehran.”
Rouhani Reaches Out to Qatar
President Rouhani has extended his policy of engagement to the wider Persian Gulf today during a telephone conversation with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani.
While PressTV emphasises Rouhani’s comments about the dangers posed to the region by “extremism, sectarianism, violence and terrorism,” the real significance is his effort to reach out to Iran’s neighbours.
He further expressed hope for a major improvement of relations “between the two friendly countries of Iran and Qatar” in the near future.
US Mission Publishes Photos of Geneva Talks
The US Mission in Geneva has created a Flikr page publishing photographs to document the ongoing talks in Geneva over Iran’s nuclear programme.
Geneva Nuclear Talks Underway
With Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi’s presentation in Geneva about Iran’s nuclear programme completed, Iranian journalists — including reformist-minded ones — have been given a press conference. Although details of Tehran’s proposal are being kept under wraps, Araqchi said that it “has the capacity to make a breakthrough” and is based on an initial six-month timeline.
Talks will continue after lunch at 1430.
RT @modavari: Iran deputy FM briefs only Iran media behind closed doors on opening session of talks in Geneva: pic.twitter.com/Eq0SJ5JO2V
— Saeed Kamali Dehghan (@SaeedKD) October 15, 2013
MT @yjtorbati: Reporters from #Iran reformist papers are for the first time allowed to accompany negotiating team to cover talks. #Geneva
— Saeed Kamali Dehghan (@SaeedKD) October 15, 2013
Iran deputy FM Arghachi briefing Iranian press here in Geneva few moments ago. Huge swarms of hungry journos around pic.twitter.com/oBz6qAEIqs
— Jasmin Ramsey (@JasminRamsey) October 15, 2013
Iranian Dep FM Abbas Araqchi: "We believe our proposal has the capacity to make a breakthrough." Six month timeline for a initial deal
— Julian Borger (@julianborger) October 15, 2013
Deputy FM: Nuclear Talks Held in Good Atmosphere
Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi says the talks concerning Iran’s nuclear programme are being held in a good atmosphere.
Deputy FM Araghchi says that talks are being held in a good atmosphere where Iran's proposal being discussed pic.twitter.com/QnAiSjLVVX
— Jasmin Ramsey (@JasminRamsey) October 15, 2013
“Closing an unnecessary crisis, opening new horizons”
The Guardian’s Julian Borger reports that Tehran’s presentation to the P5+1 is titled “Closing an unnecessary crisis, opening new horizons.”
Iranian PowerPoint presentation called: "Closing an unnecessary crisis, opening new horizons", says Iranian official in #Geneva
— Julian Borger (@julianborger) October 15, 2013
Deputy FM: Iran Nuclear Offer “Logical, Balanced, and Realistic”
Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has declared that Iran’s new nuclear proposal is “logical, balanced, and realistic.”
Araqchi, who is Tehran’s chief nuclear negotiator, said, “In the first stage, we should specify the final purpose of the talks and reach a common understanding.”
He added, “The talks should have a common purpose, and we should define a win-win game… and this does not mean that we will make concessions and give up our rights… In the second stage, we will decide which direction we will move in.”
US Warns “While We Negotiate, We Will Keep Up Economic Pressure”
Another extract from the Monday night briefing by a “senior Obama Administration official”, declaring that Washington will maintain a firm line as it listens to Iranian proposals….
While we negotiate we will keep up the economic pressure on Iran. Indeed…We believe that that pressure, which is a result of Iran’s own choices, has gotten us in large measure where we are today. And the [5+1 Powers] and the international community writ large remains united in acting in that regard.
The official refused to answer a question as to whether the US would accept an Iranian offer to suspend 20% uranium enrichment, limiting the process to 5% stock.
Indeed, the official refused to consider whether the US would even acknowledge Iran’s right to enrichment.
Rouhani Government “Shortfall in Subsidy Budget of Billions of Dollars”
Mohammad Bagher Nobakht, the deputy head of budgets and planning for the Rohani Governmentm says the budget for paying family subsidies faces a shortfall of trillions of Rials — billions of dollars.
The opposition site Radio Zamaneh claims the deficit could be 700 to 800 trillion rials ($28 billion to $32 billion).
Nobakht said the Government is looking at stopping payments to families in the top three income brackets.
Supreme Leader’s Military Advisor “Americans Cannot Be Trusted”
The Supreme Leader’s senior military advisor, Yahya Rahim Safavi, cautioned on the eve of the nuclear talks, “The Americans didn’t make any concessions to Iran and for this and other reasons, the Americans cannot be trusted.”
Rahim Safavi claimed, “George W. Bush has said in his diary book that they wanted to attack Iran after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but their military forces opposed it. This means that they had hatched plots against Iran, but the US has failed to succeed in the attainment of its strategic goals.”