LATEST: Footage: Clashes In West Aleppo
Even in the staid presentation of the US Government’s press release, the announcement by the Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal — made while the American Secretary of State, John Kerry, stood next to him — was sharp:
“An invaded country, where genocide is being perpetrated, is not a normal situation. And I can say with all clarity that we will help the Syrian people defend themselves.”
In other words, Washington could continue to dither over whether to proceed with supply of heavy arms to the insurgency, but the Saudis are going ahead.
Saud’s declaration, after talks with Kerry in Riyadh, confirmed what is an open secret to the close observer: weapons — lots of them, including anti-tank missiles, RPGs, and recoilless rifles — are now reaching opposition fighters. Video footage in recent days has shown Russian Konkurs anti-tank missiles, Chinese HJ-8 systems, and RPG-22s, among other heavy arms. In battles such as the fight for Minnegh Airbase, the regime’s last major base in Aleppo Province, that equipment has played an increasing role.
Moreover, the supply is making nonsense of the US attempt to discriminate between “moderate” insurgents, who can receive the arms, and the “extremist” factions who cannot. The brigades in the videos cross any boundaries between “secular” and “religious” and go beyond any idea of a supply co-ordinated by the Free Syrian Army.
However, there is a significant distinction. It appears that the arms are coming across the Turkish border, following talks in Turkey between the Saudis and the insurgents which must have been approved by Ankara. So far, the US hesitation is holding up the supplies — at least overt supplies — in the south from Jordanian bases.
Meanwhile, Kerry’s reply to the in-your-face declaration by Prince Saud?
“We’re trying to understand as well as possible what each nation is doing today, what they’re prepared to do, and obviously, how we can work in a way that isn’t at cross-purposes.”
Latest Updates, From Top to Bottom
Insurgent Commanders Say South “Lost” Without Heavy Arms
Insurgent commanders continue to press the line on Western reporters that new weapons supplies are vital to avoid defeat. Today’s Washington Post offers an example:
“Unless we have heavy arms within our hands by the end of the week, we will have lost southern Syria,” said another commander, Abu Mohammed Al Naimi, who said his 800-strong group of fighters has been engaged in see-saw skirmishes with Assad forces outside the southern village of al-Sheikh Maskin.
Russia: All Military Personnel Have Left Syria
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov has said that all personnel have been evacuated from the navy resupply base in Tartous, Syria, with no troops remaining in the country.
Bogdanov told the Al-Hayat newspaper, “Presently, the Russian Defense Ministry has not a single person stationed in Syria. The base does not have any strategic military importance.”
Footage: Clashes In Az Zahra, Mount Hoihna (Tel Shuwehneh), Aleppo
Amateur footage posted on Wednesday shows clashes in Aleppo’s Az Zahra district, in the west of the city, near an artillery army base.
This video shows insurgents using mortars to attack regime strongholds:
This video shows insurgents in Mount Hoihna (Tel Shuwehneh, Aleppo — directly west of Az Zahra — shelling regime strongholds on the Tel. There have been fierce clashes in this area throughout June, with insurgents claiming that Hezbollah forces are assisting Assad’s troops. Insurgents — such as in this video — have dubbed the offensive the Battle of Qadisiya.
SOHR Claim Death Toll “Over 100,000” — But What Is Their Methodology?
Western media outlets rushed on Wednesday to report a new claim by British-based group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) who say that the death toll in Syria has topped 100,000.
It is a shocking headline. And it may well be true. But SOHR offers absolutely no indications of the methodology it has used to reach this figure. Neither have the media organizations who have reported this claim asked SOHR how it calculated its total, beyond boilerplate references — taken from SOHR’s PR blurb — that the group has a network of sources on the ground in Syria.
AP cites SOHR’s remarkably detailed figures verbatim, without question:
[SOHR] said a total of 100,191 had died over the 27 months of the conflict. Of those, 36,661 are civilians…
On the government side, 25,407 are members of President Bashar Assad’s armed forces, 17,311 pro-government fighters and 169 militants from Lebanon’s Hezbollah, who have fought alongside army troops.
Deaths among Assad’s opponents included 13,539 rebels, 2,015 army defectors and 2,518 foreign fighters battling against the regime.
It is almost impossible to believe that, in a conflict as large and chaotic as the 27-month Syrian crisis, with so many reports of mass killings and indiscriminate bombings and airstrikes, any group could possibly know that precisely 36,661 civilians and 17,311 pro-government fighters have died.
As AP note, the Syrian government have not released death toll figures (and it would be difficult to trust any figures released by the regime).
So where did SOHR get its figures? The answer is that it is impossible to know. One clue, however, is a UN report issued earlier this month that put the death toll at 92,901 unique killings based on eight databases that collect information about conflict-related violent deaths reported between March 2011 and April 2013.
The UN, however, are quick to point out that “[the] enumeration is not the complete number of conflict-related killings in [Syria]. The enumeration may be a slight over count of the number of reported killings while at the same time the enumeration is likely undercounting the true total number of conflict-related killings that have occurred during this time period. This is because an unknown number of conflict related killings are likely to have occurred without being documented anywhere. [Emphasis mine — Ed.]
By this rationale, therefore, the figure put out by the UN on June 13 — 93,000 deaths — is likely less than the actual number of deaths.
So SOHR’s claim that the death toll has topped 100,000 is likely true — but not because the group has real information and access to accurate death figures that even the UN says have not been recorded anywhere.
The real question is why media organizations like AP take the SOHR’s figures and reports at face value.
Iran’s FM: Qatar’s New Emir Should Revise Syria Policy
Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi urged Qatar’s new Emir on Wednesday to revise his country’s policy of backing Syrian insurgents.
“Hopefully Sheikh Tamim will contemplate the Syrian issue and regarding past policies, he will make a serious revision so we will be able to … join hands and tackle the Syrian crisis,” Salehi told a news conference in Tehran.
Footage: Clashes In Minegh Airbase — Islamic State In Iraq & As-Sham Attack A Tank
Footage posted on Wednesday shows ongoing clashes at Minegh Air Base, northeast of Aleppo.
This video purportedly shows insurgents from the Islamic State In Iraq and As-Sham successfully blowing up a regime tank in the air base, although the weapon used is not clear. Amateur footage posted over the past several weeks appears to show a new influx of anti-tank weapons, possibly from Saudi Arabia.
This video shows the aftermath of a regime air strike on the air base:
Regime Emphasizing Reconstruction In Damascus
As part of ongoing attempts to win hearts and minds — and to demonstrate that it is still a working government — the Syrian regime announced on Wednesday that People’s Assembly Speaker Mohammad Jihad al-Laham had met with residents of al-Asad in the Damascus countryside and al-Huriya neighborhood in Damascus.
State media reports that al-Laham told residents that the Government is working to “find solutions to provide citizens’ needs and reduce the effects of the crisis on them.”
Al-Laham said the Government will help citizens find “solutions for shortages of fuel, gas and bread and providing health and sanitations services.”
Syrian Information Minister Slams Al-Saud Comments On Arming Insurgents
Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi has sharply criticized comments by Saudi Foreign Minister Al Saud, State media report on Wednesday.
Al Zoubi blamed Saudi “weapons, money and terrorists” for violence in the country, adding: “No blame for Saud al-Faisal if he considered Syria as an occupied land and Palestine is liberated as his punctured memory and illusory dreams control his discourse.”
The Speaker of the Syrian People’s Assembly, Mohammad Jihad al-Laham, also slammed Saudi Arabia, saying that the country faced “international terrorism orchestrated by old and neo colonialist countries and funded by oil sheikhdoms that seek to legitimize terrorism by issuing takfiri fatwas that justify murder and destruction.”
Casualties
The Local Coordination Committees claim 86 people were killed on Tuesday, including 28 in Damascus and its suburbs and 25 in Aleppo Province.
The Violations Documentations Center records 64,680 deaths since the start of the conflict in March 2011, an increase of 87 from Tuesday. Of the dead, 49,622 are civilians, a rise of 50 from yesterday.
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