US diplomat Barbara Leaf, who met Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa on December 20, 2024 (File)

Russia Is Moving Military Resources From Syria To Libya — Will Europe Respond?

A Futile Trip to Moscow: Bashar al-Assad’s Final Days In Power

UPDATES: French and German Foreign Ministers in Talks with Syria’s New Leaders

UPDATE 1047 GMT:

Syria Direct reports on the killing of five protesters and injuring of 15 in northern Syria by Turkish warplanes on Wednesday.

Kurdish authorities had called on civilians, including authority employees and university students, to march to the Tishreen Dam on the Euphrates River, arguing that it is threatened by Turkish-backed Syrian fighters. The Kurdish officials wrote that the aim was to “denounce the systematic bombing, emphasize our rejection of any threat that could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe in the region and support the SDF [US-supported, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces] in repelling these attacks by the Turkish occupation state and its mercenaries.”

Activists warned that the SDF was transporting employees and workers from Raqqa city to the dam as “human shields”, urging residents to be safe by avoiding the march. They noted that Turkish warplanes had hit convoys in Kurdish areas in 2018 and 2019, and that there was fighting near the dam.

“Amina Muhammad”, 29, a staffer of the Kurdish Executive Council in Tabqa, said employers were told “we should participate in this convoy to support the forces that protect us”. She declined “because I don’t have to risk my life, and I have a daughter I can’t leave behind”.

“Abdullah Omar”, 35, who works for the Education Authority in Raqqa city, joined the convoy because he “feared we would be ostracized by the [Kurdish authority] AANES”.

The Deputy Co-Chair of the AANES Executive Council, Hamdan al-Abd, said no civilians were forced to go to the Tishreen Dam: “[We were] inviting our people to participate in the procession and take a stand peacefully.”

As the convoy advanced, Turkish military aircraft struck the road leading to the dam, leaving “two large holes that prevented the vehicles from passing,” said journalist Hogir al-Abdo. “Many people walked five kilometers on foot to the dam while many participants turned back, afraid of the bombing.

Aircraft targeted the sides of the road several times “to intimidate the participants and force them to return” but ultimately “the convoy reached the dam, after which some turned back while others stayed to spend the night”.

Kurdish official al-Abd maintains, “It is people’s right to organize popular marches demanding the international community protect them from a NATO member state unjustly attacking civilians.”

But Bassam Ahmad, the executive director of rights organization Syrians for Truth and Justice (STJ), said “protecting civilians should be a priority for the Autonomous Administration. It must refrain from involving, pushing or forcing them to act as barriers to stop Turkish attacks on the region.”

The Kurdish outlet Hawar News reports that, despite the Turkish attack, hundreds of residents headed towards the Tishreen Dam on Saturday.

UPDATE 0833 GMT:

Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa hosted Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in Damascus on Saturday.

The trip was the first by a head of government to Syria since the country’s liberation from the Assad regime on December 8, and the first visit by a Lebanese Prime Minister in 15 years.

Mikati said the countries agreed to co-operate to secure land borders, to delineate their shared land and sea borders, and to prevent illegal smuggling as priorities.

His office said it is also “urgent” to address the issue of Syrian refugees in Lebanon and to have them return home.

Al-Sharaa also cited the border as his top priority. He highlighted discussion of Syrian deposits in Lebanese banks, which have been inaccessible due to a five-year financial crisis in Lebanon.

“We hope that the Lebanese people will abandon the mentality of the previous Syrian relationship in Lebanon and the negative relations that followed,” Sharaa said.

There was now an “opportunity to build a positive relationship”, he emphasized.

UPDATE, JAN 12:

The Biden Administration will maintain the “terrorist” designation of the leading Syrian faction Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham — and thus sanctions on Damascus — until President Joe Biden leaves office on January 20.

“Three US officials familiar with the matter” confirmed the decision. “Actions will speak louder than words,” said one senior official. He cited concerns about the promotion of foreign fighters to the highest ranks in the Syrian army (see Update, Jan 11).

UPDATE 1258 GMT:

Syria’s Intelligence Directorate says it foiled an attack by an Islamic State cell on the Sayyeda Zainab shrine in southern Damascus.

The agency said members of the cell were arrested before they could detonate an explosive inside the shrine for Shi’a Muslims.

“The General Intelligence Directorate is utilizing all its resources to confront all attempts to target the Syrian people in all their diversity,” an intelligence official said.

UPDATE, JAN 11:

US, French, and German envoys have warned Syria’s leaders that the appointment of foreign fighters to senior military posts is a security concern, say “two sources familiar with the matter“.

A US official said the American warning was delivered in a meeting between Washington’s envoy Daniel Rubinstein and Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa on Wednesday at the Presidential Palace overlooking Damascus.

“These appointments will not help them with their reputation in the US,” the official said.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot also raised the issue in their meeting with Sharaa on January 3, said “an official aware of the talks”.

Out of 40 military roles announced by the Syrian Defense Ministry on December 29, at least six went to foreigners. Three were given the rank of brigadier-general and at least three the rank of colonel.

Abdulaziz Dawood Khudaberdi, the Chinese Uyghur commander of the separatist Turkistan Islamic Party’s forces in Syria, was appointed a brigadier-general. Uyghur fighters Mawlan Tarsoun Abdussamad and Abdulsalam Yasin Ahmad were named as colonels.

Turkish citizen Omar Mohammed Jaftashi and Jordanian citizen Abdul Rahman Hussein al-Khatib were made brigadier-generals. Abdul Jashari, an Albanian fighter, was appointed colonel.

UPDATE 1759 GMT:

The European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has posted of a coordinated, cautious position between the US and leading European countries over the removal of sanctions on Syria:

UPDATE 1637 GMT:

The Syrian government has reportedly refused entry to a Russian cargo ship seeking to move military equipment out of the Tartus naval base in western Syria.

The Sparta II, sanctioned by the US, has been drifting near Tartus since January 5 after leaving Baltiysk in the Kaliningrad Oblast on December 11.

Officials say it is seeking to transfer weapons and equipment to Libya, where Russia supports the insurgency of General Khalifa Haftar.

Russia Is Moving Military Resources From Syria To Libya — Will Europe Respond?

Analysts told EA WorldView that Russia could not only boost its capabilities in Libya but could use bases to destabilize North Africa. Increasing migration to Italy and other targeted areas of the EU through a humanitarian crisis, the maneuver would tie up European and American resources — thus preventing them from being used to counter Russia’s “shadow fleet” and its movement of oil to evade sanctions.

UPDATE, JAN 10:

Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has met Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani in Damascus.

Tajani posted:

Italy is ready to do its part to encourage the reform process in Syria. We want to be close to the Syrian people and support them in all areas.

We want to relaunch economic cooperation in crucial sectors. We want to be a bridge between the new Syria and the EU.

The Foreign Minister spoke of cooperation in energy, infrastructure, and healthcare and noted that cultural collaborations between universities could be initiated.

“We also dwelt on the possibility of fighting human traffickers and drug traffickers,” he said.

During a press briefing in Lebanon, Tajani called for a moratorium on European Union sanctions on Syria for six months or one year.

Al-Shaibani said the longstanding sanctions imposed on Syria during the al-Assad years are a serious obstacle to the country’s recovery.

“We welcome the Italian Foreign Minister’s call for the lifting of sanctions against Syria,” he said.

UPDATE 0934 GMT:

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has warned that Ankara will attack if the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG does not disband.

“We will do what’s necessary, and it is a military operation,” Fidan said on live television.

He declared that leaders and fighters from other countries must leave Syria, and that the YPG must disarm and join the Syrian national army.

“This is a bloodless, problem-free transition,” the Foreign Minister. “The ultimatum we gave them through the Americans is obvious.”

Turkish-backed Syrian fighters are already battling the US-supported, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and YPG. Claims are circulating that 37 people were killed on Wednesday.

Ankara considers the SDF, YPG, and the Kurdish political party PYD to be part of the Turkish Kurdish insurgency PKK.

SDF leader Gen. Mazloum Abdi has urged Donald Trump to maintain a US military presence in Syria.

Abdi said that while Turkey and the Ankara-backed Syrian fighters were putting pressure on Kurdish forces, the Islamic State was increasing its strength in the desert after seizing arms from the Assad regime.

“The key factor of stabilization in this area is the US presence on the ground,” Abdi said.

He declared that ISIS members were plotting to strike detention centers as Kurdish forces were occupied with defense against the Turkish-backed groups.

After speaking with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in December 2018, Trump tried to withdraw all US forces from Syria. The Pentagon and other US agencies limited the move, but less than a year later, Trump gave a green light for Turkey to launch a cross-border assault against the Kurdish autonomous area in northern Syria.

UPDATE, JAN 9:

Iran’s top commander in Syria, Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esbati, has acknowledged the “very big blow” to Tehran from the fall of the Assad regime.

In a recording of last week’s speech, obtained by the Geneva-based Abdi Media, Esbati said, “I don’t consider losing Syria something to be proud of. We were defeated, and defeated very badly, we took a very big blow and it’s been very difficult.”

Esbati also said Iran’s support of Damascus had been strained over Assad’s refusal to let Iran-led militias open a new front against Israel. He accused Russia of saying it was bombing rebel forces when it when just dropping munitions on open fields.

In an interview with the conservative site Tabnak, Esbati said, “Assad lacked the motivation to fight. Despite Ayatollah Khamenei’s assurance that Iran would support him if he resisted, Assad was unwilling to engage in battle.” He added, “His army commanders were corrupt and accepted bribes from everyone.”

The general went further in his condemnation of Moscow: “Russia betrayed both Assad and Iran. After Iran’s first retaliation against Israeli attacks, Russia was aligned with Israel.”

In his leaked speech the general, echoing the Supreme Leader’s call on youth to “resist”, indicated that Iran will try to undermine the new Syrian government.

We can activate all the networks we have worked with over the years. We can activate the social layers that our guys lived among for years. We can be active in social media and we can form resistance cells.

Now we can operate there as we do in other international arenas, and we have already started.

Esbati’s words are a sharp contrast to those of Iran’s UN Ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, who declared yesterday that the new Syrian leadership should be allowed to govern “without external influence”.

UPDATE 1553 GMT:

Qatar intends to finance a large increase in public sector wages promised by Syria’s new government, according to a US official and a senior diplomat.

The support follows Monday’s waiver by the US of some sanctions, allowing for transactions with governing institutions in Syria for six months.

An Arab official said no arrangements have been completed, but other countries including Saudi Arabia may join the initiative.

Syria’s transitional government has said it intends to increase public salaries by 400%. The cost for the more than 1.25 million workers will be around $120 million.

A Syrian Finance Ministry source said it has received no confirmation on foreign funding of salaries; however, there have been general pledges of support.

UPDATE, JAN 8:

European Union sanctions in Syria that obstruct the delivery of humanitarian aid and hinder the country’s recovery can be lifted swiftly, says France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot.

Speaking with France Inter radio, Barrot said the EU could take a decision similar to that announced by the US on Monday. He did not give precise timing.

The Foreign Minister, again paralleling the US line, said the removal of more political sanctions will depend on how Syria’s new leadership handled the transition and ensures inclusion of all groups.

There are other sanctions which we are discussing with our European partners, which could be lifted, but obviously depending on the pace at which our expectations for Syria regarding women and security are taken into account.

Barrot and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock met Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, last Friday.

Three European diplomats said the EU will try to lift some sanctions by January 27, when the bloc’s 27 foreign ministers meet in Brussels.

Two of the diplomats said one aim was to facilitate financial transactions to allow funds to return to the country, aid air transport, and ease sanctions targeting the energy sector.

UPDATE 1709 GMT:

Writing for New Lines magazine, Anagha Nair and Aubin Eymard document their visit to a Captagon factory of the Assad regime.

Before its fall last month, the regime earned billions of dollars each year from the sale of the amphetamine across the region.

Nair and Eymard ventured to the factory in Douma near Damascus:

On our way to the factory, we asked multiple people on the road for directions. Often, they would guide us. Three weeks ago, speaking out loud about Captagon, closely associated with Assad and his supporters, would have been inconceivable.

Inside the building’s basement, millions of white pills were scattered across the floor, stretching as far as the eye could see. The first ones we noticed were lying on an old Syrian flag being trampled on by a rebel. They repeated this gesture in front of the cameras of other journalists several times.

“This is the largest Captagon factory we’ve found so far,” said Khalid, a Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham member from Idlib who accompanied us on the tour….

Khalid struck some plasterboard leaning against a wall. It broke open and hundreds of Captagon pills streamed onto the floor.

His eyes widened in surprise and his voice rose, as he realized they’d just discovered another smuggling trick.

“It’s like this every day,” he said. “We keep finding more Captagon.”

ORIGINAL ENTRY, JAN 6: The US is easing restrictions on provision of humanitarian aid and other basic services such as electricity to Syria.

However, strict sanctions, imposed on the Assad regime over its deadly repression, will remain on the new government.

US officials told the Wall Street Journal that Washington wants to see the Islamist faction Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the leading group in the post-Assad administration, establish a government inclusive of all Syrians. Washington also wants assurances of co-operation on counter-terrorism.

Over the weekend the Biden Administration allowed the Treasury Department to issue waivers to aid groups and companies providing essential services and supplies such as water, electricity, and humanitarian aid.

On Monday, the International Committee of the Red Cross announced a large expansion of its work beyond an initial $100 million program, citing pressing needs in the health, water, and power sectors.

ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric said during a visit to Syria that individual donor countries have already come forward with an increase in funding.

Syria requires $4.07 billion in aid this year, but only 33.1% has been funded, leaving a $2.73 billion gap, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Spoljaric said, “We need to expand that work, we have a lot to do in the health sector.”

She said the ICRC is pursuing rehabilitation to sustain water provision at 40% to 50% of what it was before the Syrian uprising of March 2011: “There are facilities next to the Euphrates Lake that are specific to the protection requirement at the moment.”

Initial assessments to begin immediate rehabilitation of Syria’s electricity systems are partly complete, but urgent financial investments and adjustments to sanctions are required, she added.

“Certain spare parts need to be allowed to come in because that is also hampering the rehabilitation work at the moment. So there’s a political dimension to it,” the ICRC head said.