Russia’s cargo ship Sparta II — reportedly now on its way to Syria — in the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul, Turkey, August 14, 2022 (Yoruk Isik/Reuters)
UPDATES: French and German Foreign Ministers in Talks with Syria’s New Leaders
Reliable sources have told EA WorldView that the Russian military is preparing to transfer weapons and equipment from their base in western Syria to positions in Libya.
A NATO official has warned that Italy and the European Union’s Naval Force (EUNAVFOR), with responsibility for routes across the Mediterranean, “need to mobilize and come up with a plan quickly as this is all slated to go down within the week”.
Ukrainian military intelligence reported the Russian plan last week. It posted on Telegram that two cargo ships, the Sparta and the Sparta II, were headed toward Russian’s naval base in Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
As of Saturday night, the last time that its position was received by monitors, the Sparta was nearing Tartus.
The Russian move has been spurred by the loss in Syria of its client, Bashar al-Assad, whose regime was toppled last month. Moscow had built up its Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base, particularly from September 2015, to help keep Assad in power.
Assessing Moscow’s new tactics, analysts told EA that Russia could not only boost its capabilities in Libya but could use bases to destabilize North Africa. Increasing migration to Italy and other targeted areas of the EU through a humanitarian crisis, the maneuver would tie up European and American resources — thus preventing them from being used to counter Russia’s “shadow fleet” and its movement of oil to evade sanctions.
Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto warned in mid-December of the Russian transfer from Syria to Libya:
That is not a good thing. Russian ships and submarines in the Mediterranean are always a concern, and even more so if instead of being 1,000 kilometers away they are two steps from us.
His concern was amplified by the Italian military website Defensa which noted the departure of Russian frigates and submarines from Tartous.
Reports are circulating that Russia has arranged formal use of the port of Tobruk in eastern Libya with General Khalifa Haftar, whose authority in the region challenges the UN-recognized national government.
Last month another Russian cargo ship, the Ursa Major, sank between Spain and Algeria — the same area where the Sparta was moving.
A European Response?
EA sources say NATO is working on a legal and military response through EUNAVFOR to enforce the UN arms embargo on Libya, preventing the move of weapons and equipment by vessels with several leaders of the Russian Navy on board.
EUNAVFOR’s headquarters are in Rome. Its current operations are led by Rear Admiral Valentino Rinaldi.
According to a NATO official, international maritime expert have confirmed that the EU has “authority to intervene if these Spartan vessels are suspected of transporting arms shipments into Libya without UN authorization”.
EA sources note the precedent of Italian naval forces enforcing the embargo on Libya. In June, Italian authorities worked with US intelligence to seize a consignment of Libya-bound weapons worth millions of dollars. It is believed the delivery was for forces led by Haftar.
The sources also cite a growing political will among some EU members to counter Russia’s maritime operations, with their possible sabotage and “hybrid warfare”. Finland has announced its intention to act against Russia’s “shadow fleet”, and NATO is supporting Finland and the Baltic States in protection of undersea cables, following a series of suspected attacks damaging the links.
[Editor’s Note: And a reminder that the thoughts of officials like Donald Rumsfeld in 2003 had no bearing on why Syrians rose against the Assad regime in 2011….]
A reminder that regime change in Syria was a goal for the neconservatives back in 2003: https://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/18/opinion/IHT-syria-the-us-pushes-regime-change-at-its-peril.html
It is alleged that the invasion of Iraq was an attempt to find a launching pad to attack Syria and Iran eventually.
[Editor’s Note: The link is to an opinion piece from 2018 which — in contrast to the commenter’s fact-free assertion — criticizes the US for not intervening to protect Syria’s civilians:
“Chemical weapons were actually used, and Obama did nothing. He ignored the poison gas, or his previous warning, or perhaps both.
This, it seems, may have been the last chance to set some limits for the Assad regime.”]
The Assad regime would never have fallen were it not for a concerted effort by the West, the Arab Gulf States, Israel and Turkey to destabilize the country: https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-where-the-west-has-gone-wrong-in-syrias-civil-war/a-42994590
“In the years prior to the start of the Syrian civil war, the US had apparently toyed with the idea of trying to overthrow Assad — which may have also plunged Syria into chaos “