Celebrations in Hama, Syria after its liberation by rebels (Sky)

UPDATES: Assad Regime Is Over In Syria

What Now for Syria’s Kurds?

The Russia-Iran-Assad “Axis of the Vulnerable” Is Cracking in Syria

UPDATE, DEC 10:

I joined Australia’s ABC and Ireland’s RTE Radio 1 on Monday morning to evaluate Syria’s opportunity to recover from 54 years of “deadly and destructive rule” by the Assad family.

Watch ABC’s The World

I review the reasons for the sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad and the “serious blow” to Iran and Russia.

Beyond its military assets in Syria, the effort by Russia in the Middle East and beyond — as we have seen in Ukraine — was the projection of power.

Its project to save Assad is now in ruins.

This is not going to stop the invasion of Ukraine. But Putin’s idea that he has leverage and can call the shots internationally is ruined.

I then consider the rebel and political groups, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham; security; and the establishment of a transitional government.

I am going to defer to my Syrian friends. They have lived for 54 years under authoritarian rule. They have seen hundreds of thousands of their fellow Syrians killed and more than 11 million displaced.

They are saying, “Do not pre-empt this and say this is not possible. Let us have this moment of hope.”

Listen to RTE Radio 1 from 5:11

I join BBC Security Correspondent Frank Gardner and host Colm Ó Mongáin in a discussion of Iran and Syria’s future.

I think you’re going to see a cautious approach by the Iranians now.

I don’t think they can get links with the new transitional government in Damascus. The rebels will not forgive Iran for aiding Assad’s mass killing of his people.

So Iran will be maneuvering with Turkey and Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, for a “live and let live” arrangement while it figures out what to do next.

I also push back on the equation of the “new Syria” with Afghanistan and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham with the Taliban.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, DEC 9: I joined international media on Sunday and Monday to analyze the collapse of the Assad regime and what happens now with Syria’s liberation.

I discuss why the regime fell so quickly, the diverse nature of the rebels and opposition, and the immediate need to establish security, maintain services, and ensure the rights of all Syrian groups.

I also look at an immediate point of tension: will Turkey’s Erdoğan Government encourage rebels to attack Kurdish areas in northern Syria?

Watch France 24 English

In a 6 1/2-minute interview, I assess the immediate priorities of the new leaders in Damascus and other Syrian cities, the approach of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham leader Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, and of the response of Russia and Iran to their defeat with the fall of the Assad regime.

Russia and Iran did not intervene to save Assad because they are overstretched. Russia is overstretched in Ukraine. The Iranians have serious domestic issues and have been hit by Israel’s targeted assassinations.

The Russians and Iranians are going to have to regroup and decide whether they are going to intervene again or this time support stability rather than destruction.

Listen to BBC Radio 4 from 16:00

I joined The World This Weekend on Sunday morning, discussing with James Naughtie how the aspirations for Syrians for freedom and security must be our priority.

With a diverse range of groups, it is a significant task to establish even an interim government.

But regarding those who are saying that cannot happen, I think that pre-empts the possibility of Syrians embarking on the pursuit of justice, equality, and rights.

Listen to BBC Radio Scotland from 2:43.08

I spoke further on Monday morning about the reasons for the rapid rebel advance, including the “paper regime” of Bashar al-Assad and his military; the vulnerabilities of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah; and the collapse of the regime’s “culture of fear”.

Listen to Dublin NewsTalk

I spoke with the Anton Savage Show on Sunday morning about the situation in Damascus and throughout Syria, following the inability — or unwillingness — of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah to defend the Assad regime.

I also review the life and the repressive and deadly rule of Bashar al-Assad.

For a few years after he took power, there was hope he might allow reforms. But that disappeared in 2005 with crackdowns on the opposition, detentions, and going back on promises.

And what you saw in 2011 amid mass demonstrations over torture, detention, and denial of fights was Assad’s decision not to deal with the abuses but to kill protesters.

I conclude with three questions:

One has been answered already. Will Russia try to save Assad? That’s a resounding No.

Second, Will Russia negotiate with Turkey, the backer of the rebel factions? And even if they carve out a deal, will the rebels accept it?

Third, will Donald Trump withdraw US protection from the Kurdish autonomous area and green-light a Turkish attack?