Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US counterpart Joe Biden at the NATO Summit, Washington, D.C., July 11, 2024
EA on Pat Kenny Show: The G20 Summit, Ukraine, and Donald Trump
Ukraine War, Day 1,001: North Koreans “Fighting in Elite Russian Units”
UPDATE, NOV 22:
I join Navjeet Grewal to explain the Biden Administration’s shift of position over Ukraine strikes inside Russia.
The Administration for many months worried that it might upset the Kremlin and Moscow might retaliate. They might carry out strikes beyond Ukraine with “hybrid warfare”, sabotage, and disinformation.
What finally changed their mind? Donald Trump.
Can Trump revoke that permission?
UPDATE, NOV 20:
I spoke with Claire Byrne on Ireland’s RTE Radio 1 on Wednesday morning about further developments over the lifting of the US ban on Ukraine’s strikes inside Russia.
I explain why the US Embassy in Kyiv closed as a precaution amid the possibility of Russian airstrikes. I deal with the bluster of Vladimir Putin trying to disrupt support of Ukrainian operation, and consider the likelihood of Moscow’s “hybrid attacks”.
I point to the likelihood of the UK and France following with permission for Ukraine’s strikes, just before reports of a British-made Storm Shadow being used inside Russia for the first time.
And I explain why Ukraine’s control of part of the Kursk region in western Russia is so important, amid talk of negotiations in 2025.
The combination of the importance of Kursk and the game-changer of the US allowing Ukraine’s strikes makes it a bit more difficult for the Kremlin to present an ultimatum to Kyiv.
ORIGINAL ENTRY, NOV 19: I joined BBC outlets on Monday and Tuesday to analyze why the Biden Administration, after its months-long blockade, is finally allowing Ukraine to strike inside Russia with US-made long-range missiles.
I explain how the political situation changed with the election of Donald Trump, who will return to the White House in January, and assess the military and psychological significance of the US shift.
Listen to BBC Radio Wales from 9:19
I spoke with John-Paul Davies on Monday afternoon about the Biden Administration’s calculations.
Trump is likely to be a vehicle for the Kremlin’s line as it tries to force Ukraine to capitulate and give up some of its territory.
So if you are going to empower Ukraine, not to win this war but to get some lever on the battlefield and in future negotiations, you had to make this move now.
Listen to BBC Radio Scotland from 1:12.34
I joined Gary Robertson on BBC Radio Scotland to explain the US dynamics, and why the decision makes it more difficult for Donald Trump to revoke American assistance for Ukraine.
I also assess if the UK and France will follow up with permission for their missiles to be deployed inside Russia.
And I knock back Russian bluster.
If I had 10 pence for every time Vladimir Putin has thumped his chest and said, “I have nuclear weapons”, I would be a very, very wealthy person.
At some point, you have to decide as an international community that you back Ukraine’s attempt to survive or you keep giving into Putin.
So if you are going to empower Ukraine, not to win this war but to get some lever on the battlefield and in future negotiations, you had to make this move now.
*******
Yeah, right. Now that the US has become a co-belligerent in this conflict, Moscow will likely insist that the US not be a party to any future negotiation, and that it not be a guarantor of Ukraine’s security once a settlement is reached. The US has just put Ukraine in a worse position going forward, tying Trump’s hands. That is why there’s an uproar over this in Washington.
Good luck with that. Russia will interpret any strikes with NATO missiles on its bases and cities as an attack by NATO itself: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crr91nn9n79o