North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un with troops during an inspection at a military training base at an undisclosed location in North Korea, October 2, 2024

Tuesday’s Coverage: “Fighting For The Right To Life”

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1608 GMT:

The UK and Ukraine’s neighbor Moldova have announced a new defense and security partnership, as British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, visited the Moldovan capital Chisinau on Wednesday.

The UK Foreign Ministry said the pact is “building on extensive cooperation between the two countries and strengthening Moldovan resilience against external threats”.

Last month in a referendum, Moldovans narrowly supported accession to the European Union. Two weeks later, pro-European President Maia Sandu won re-election. Both results were a setback for Russia, which reportedly spent almost €40 million trying to manipulate the vote.

UPDATE 1543 GMT:

British officials say Ukraine has used a UK-made long-range Storm Shadow missile for the first time inside Russia.

A strike was reported on a Russian military position in the Kursk region in western Russia, part of which is held by Ukrainian forces.

The deployment of the Storm Shadows was expected after the US, which had vetoed their use for months, lifted the ban on the launch of American-made ATACMS inside Russia.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hinted at an European meeting in Brussels earlier this week:

I’ve been really clear for a long time now, we need to double down. We need to make sure Ukraine has what is necessary for as long as necessary, because we cannot allow Putin to win this war.

UPDATE 1343 GMT:

Germany, the second-largest provider of military aid to Ukraine, has sent another package.

The delivery includes four self-propelled Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers; three Gepard anti-aircraft guns; ammunition for Marder infantry fighting vehicles; 41,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition; reconnaissance drones; medical equipment, 47 mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles; seven 155mm howitzer tubes; three mine clearing tanks; two bridge-laying tanks; and eight air assault vehicles.

UPDATE 1430 GMT:

Italy, Spain and Greece have joined the US in closing embassies in Kyiv today, amid the possibility of Russian airstrikes (see 0830 GMT).

British diplomats posted, “The UK Embassy in Kyiv remains open. However, the safety of our staff and British nationals in Ukraine is paramount and we keep our Embassy posture and travel advice under constant review.”

Germany’s embassy is open a limited capacity.

Ukraine’s intelligence service said:

A message is being spread via messengers and social networks…about the threat of a “particularly massive” missile and bomb strike on Ukrainian cities today. This message is a fake, it contains grammatical errors typical of Russian information and psychological operations.

Two Ukrainian military personnel said they received messages that Russia would launch more than 300 drones and use warships, warplanes, and ground-based systems to fire missiles.

UPDATE 1015 GMT:

Vladimir Putin is preparing to discuss his terms for Ukraine negotiations with Donald Trump, say “five current and former Russian officials”.

Putin is ruling out any significant territorial concessions over Russia’s occupation and insists Kyiv abandon its pursuit of NATO membership.

The officials say Putin could broadly agree to freeze his invasion along the frontlines. Although the Russian leader “annexed” four Ukrainian regions — Donetsk and Luhansk in the east and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south — in September 2022, there may be room for negotiation over the scope of Russia’s seizure of territory.

Ukraine controls parts of Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Donetsk despite Putin’s proclamation.

The Kremlin may also insist that Ukraine limit the size of its armed forces.

Two officials warned the lifting of the ban on Ukraine’s strikes inside Russia could complicate and delay any settlement and stiffen the Kremlin’s demands.

UPDATE 0930 GMT:

At least two civilians have been killed and at least 30 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

The fatalities were in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, where 15 others were injured in attacks on 21 settlements.

Injuries were also reported from the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrosk regions.

UPDATE 0837 GMT:

Russia is behind a flurry of bomb threats made against schools in Czechia and Slovakia, says the director of the Czech Security Information Service, Michal Koudelka.

Hundreds of Czech and Slovak schools received bomb threats by e-mail after students returned from summer break in September. Closing the schools, local police found no credible evidence of explosives or improvised devices.

European officials have warned in recent months of Russia-backed sabotage operations across the continent, including detonations of parcels at airports and acts of arson.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday that damage to two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea appears to be a “hybrid action” of sabotage.

A 1,170-km (730-mile) telecommunications cable between Finland and Germany was cut early Monday. A 218-km (135-mile) internet link between Lithuania and Sweden’s Gotland Island stopped working on Sunday.

Pistorius said, “Nobody believes that these cables were cut accidentally”. The Swedish and Lithuanian Defense ministers said they were “deeply concerned”.

Pistorius did not attribute responsibility, and there is no evidence yet of Russian involvement.

Swedish authorities are investigating whether the Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3 was involved. The vessel, traveling from Russia to Egypt, passed near the Swedish-Lithuanian and Finnish-German cables on Sunday and Monday.

The Yi Peng 3 is owned by the Ningbo Yipeng Shipping company, based near Ningbo in eastern China. A company spokesperson said Chinese government has asked the firm to cooperate with the investigation.

UPDATE 0830 GMT:

The US Embassy in Kyiv has closed “out of an abundance of caution” because of the potential of Russian airstrikes.

UPDATE 0820 GMT:

The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights says it has verified the killing of 12,162 civilians, including 659 children, during Russia’s invasion.

At least 26,919 civilians have been injured.

High Commissioner Volker Türk noted “1,000 days” of the invasion: “Too many of senseless pain and suffering”.

UPDATE 0733 GMT:

Ukraine and its international partners have criticized the G20 summit for failing to cite Russia’s 33-month invasion.

The single paragraph in the G20’s joint declaration was far weaker than the seven paragraphs in 2023. It included only broad references to “human suffering” and “negative added impacts of the war” as it welcomed “initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace”. Absent were condemnation of Ukraine-related nuclear threats, a demand for a cessation of attacks on food and energy infrastructure, and the phrase “Today’s era must not be of war.”

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky chided the failure to set out a “strong strategy”: “Today, G20 countries are sitting in Brazil. Did they say something? Nothing.”

Brazilian leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reportedly approved the final text a day early, while leaders of France, Germany and US were out of the room.

French President Emmanuel Macron said:

The communique was closed by President Lula. It fell short of the position we could have had.

This does not change anything in France’s position: it is a war of aggression launched by Russia against Ukraine, and our priority today is to obtain a lasting peace.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who spoke with Vladimir Putin last Friday for an hour, said, “It is too little when the G20 cannot find the words to make it clear Russia is responsible.” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said a much stronger statement was needed to reflect the “illegal invasion”.

UPDATE 0723 GMT:

The Biden Administration is sending anti-personnel landmines to Ukraine.

A US official said President Joe Biden has approved the supply. Washington expects Ukraine to use the mines in its own territory, holding back a Russian offensive in the east. Kyiv has committed not to use them in areas populated with civilians.

The official said the US mines differ from Russia’s because they are “non-persistent”, becoming inert after a pre-set period when battery power is cut off.

Another said:

Russia is attacking Ukrainian lines in the east with waves of troops, regardless of the casualties that they’re suffering.

So the Ukrainians are obviously taking losses, and more towns and cities are at risk of falling. These mines were made specifically to combat exactly this.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Some North Korean troops, sent to Russia to prop up its 33-month invasion, are reportedly in Moscow’s elite Russian airborne and marine units.

Park Sun-won, a member of the South Korean Parliament’s Intelligence Committee, said the North Koreans are in the Kursk region in western Russia. The Russians are trying to regain territory, around 1,000 square km (386 square miles) of which is held by Ukraine following a cross-border incursion on August 6.

South Korean, Ukrainian, and US intelligence agencies estimate that around 11,000 North Koreans have been deployed. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on Tuesday that the number could rise to 100,000.

Citing South Korea’s intelligence agency, Park said the exact number of North Korean troop casualties and surrenders is being sought amid conflicting information.

Park added that North Korea has shipped additional arms for the war in Ukraine, including self-propelled howitzers and multiple rocket launchers.

The legislator noted that North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow this month was unusual in terms of protocol. He assessed that it went beyond greetings, to discuss issues including a possible visit to Russia by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

On Monday, the Biden Administration cited the North Korean presence when it lifted the ban on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles inside Russia.

Yesterday US and Ukrainian officials confirmed the first strike with the ATACMS missiles, on military warehouses storing ammunition — including from North Korea — in the Bryansk region.

Sources told the Wall Street Journal that Col. Gen. Kim Yong Bok, one of the generals accompanying North Korean troops in Russia, is close to Kim Jong Un.

Kim Yong Bok is officially the Deputy Chief of the Army General Staff. He is expected to oversee the integration of North Korean troops into Russian forces, to gain combat experience, and to establish a framework for future deployments.

Kim previously commanded a special forces unit of 200,000 soldiers tasked with covert missions on the Korean Peninsula.