Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at the Helsinki Summit, July 16, 2018

How Trump Bowed Down To Putin Over Ukraine

EA on International Media: A Convicted Felon Will Be US President — How Much Damage Can He Cause?

UPDATE, NOV 14:

I joined Poland’s TVP World on Thursday for a 12-minute analysis of the politics around aid to Ukraine following Donald Trump’s election in the US last week.

I discuss the effort by the Biden Administration to get up to $9 billion to assistance to Kyiv before Trump takes office. I look at the report, from more than 10 European and US officials, of a “land for security” deal in which Ukraine gives up territory to Russian occupation in return for security guarantees from partners.

I conclude by looking at Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees, including those who have taken positions on Ukraine — notably the danger posed by Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard, named by Trump as Defense Secretary and Director of National Intelligence, respectively.

UPDATE, NOV 10:

I joined BBC 5 Live on Sunday to further evaluate Donald Trump’s likely support of Russia’s Vladimir Putin over Ukraine.

Listen from 37:53

Following the comments of a Trump advisor that Ukraine must give up Russian-occupied territory such as Crimea, I summarize:

First, Trump and his Vice Presidential running mate J.D. Vance have threatened to cut all US aid — military, economic, and financial — to Ukraine once they take office.

Second, we know that Donald Trump has supported Vladimir Putin’s line about seizing part of Ukraine indefinitely through the term “peace talks”.

I talk about the further threats of Putin to European security:

Putin will honor a deal in which he is allowed to take over part of a neighboring country.

You can think of previous cases in history, including one in 1938.

If the rest of Ukraine is not allowed to come into NATO, it is still exposed to further attack. Putin could also put pressure on members of NATO, as he has done in the past.

UPDATE, NOV 8:

I rejoined Times Radio’s Frontline on Thursday for a 28-minute deep dive into Donald Trump’s effect on US foreign policy, particularly his likely support of his friend Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

We face, in November 2024, Vladimir Putin’s possible last gamble to try to avoid a stalemate and the frustration of his hopes: the election of Donald Trump.

I chat with Kate Gerbeau about the prospect of Ukraine having to accept Russian occupation of some of the country, at least in the short term, in a 2024 version of West Germany and East Germany in the Cold War.

And I examine what Europe and much of the international community can — and must do — in this situation.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, NOV 7: I joined Times Radio on Wednesday for a special 18-minute VideoCast on the significance of Donald Trump’s US Presidential election victory for Vladimir Putin, for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and for American foreign policy.

After explaining how Trump triumphed despite — or because of — his deceit and disinformation amid a damaged US political and media environment, I consider his approach to the world.

We need to be clear-eyed and clear-headed about a situation which is one of the most dangerous in my lifetime.

On foreign policy, let’s be real. Trump will threaten to pull out of NATO or pull America to the side.

Trump will bail out on Ukraine. He will support his friend Vladimir Putin, having been “flipped” by Putin in a conversation in 2017 on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Germany. He will support Russia’s annexation of more than 25% of Ukraine.

This will not be a US foreign policy for alliances, for the UK, for Europe.

This will be a foreign policy for whatever Donald Trump thinks will make him look good.