Photo: Nicolo Vincenzo Malvestuto/Getty


Friday’s Coverage: Why Didn’t Russia Stop Kyiv’s Incursion Into Kursk Region?


Map: Institute for the Study of War


UPDATE 1656 GMT:

Military analyst Denys Popovych assesses the significance of Ukrainian drone strikes on three large Russian ammunition depots: Wednesday’s attack on Toropets in the Tver region, and today’s damage near Oktyabrsky in Tver and on a base in the Krasnodar region.

Both the bases in Toropets and in Krasnodar have North Korean KN-23 missiles, and they may also be at the other base in Tver.

All of this could have fallen on our heads — North Korean ballistic missiles, particularly aimed at Kyiv, since they are often launched toward it.

The first issue is security. The second is logistics. Each of these bases currently being struck provided support for specific operational directions in which the Russian army operates.

The Krasnodar site is the main site in southwest Russia, but “there are at least two more bases [in the area]…where North Korean ammunition is stored. All of them are within reach of our UAVs.”

Other targets could include an arsenal in the Bryansk region, 115 km (71 miles) from the border, one in the Novgorod region within 700 km (435 miles), and two or three bases near Moscow.

These bases are being taken out; they will no longer exist. Once the fire subsides, the Russians will need to determine which ammunition survived and which was damaged. They will also have to conduct mine-clearing operations for the ordnance scattered in the surrounding areas. They will need to reorient all this to other bases, which may be nearby. This involves reorganizing the railway and transportation systems and redistributing ammunition.

And, of course, this means physically destroying the ammunition itself. They will not make it to the front anymore. They won’t fall on heads. They will need to replenish those stocks again. This is no longer just one base; it’s now three.

There is a general understanding that this is the beginning of a large campaign aimed at systematically dismantling major Russian arsenals.


UPDATE 1442 GMT:

Iran did not include mobile launchers with short-range missiles delivered to Russia for use against Ukraine, according to “a European diplomat, a European intelligence official, and a US official”.

The three sources said it was not clear why Iran did not supply launchers with the Fatah-360 missiles. Without elaborating, the European intelligence official said the provision of the launches is not expected.

Two experts said Russia may plan to modify trucks to carry the missiles, as Iran has done. However, by withholding the launchers, Iran could maintaining space for new talks with Western powers on easing tensions, including over Tehran’s nuclear program.


UPDATE 1036 GMT:

The independent Russian outlet Mediazona and BBC Russian have profiled almost 70,000 Russian soldiers killed in Vladimir Putin’s 31-month invasion.

One in five of the slain signed a contract with the Russian army or the National Guard after the war started. More than half were not affiliated with the military before the start of the invasion.

In 2022, the average Russian soldier killed was a 21-year-old contract serviceman in elite units like Special Forces, Airborne Forces, or the Marines. Now, those dying in the conflict tend to be men in their 40s, 50s or even 60s, often lacking combat experience or specialized training.

The report found a steady rise in casualties among volunteers since October 2023, coinciding with a renewed Russian offensive in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Losses among mobilized troops and prisoners have remained steady.

The two sites have confirmed the loss of 4,104 Russian officers in Ukraine, including seven generals. Among the fallen are 458 high-ranking officers, including lieutenant colonels and above, and 1,142 elite command specialists.

The BBC estimates that their count covers only 45% to 65% of the actual toll, putting the actual number of Russian military deaths from 107,864 to 155,804. In addition, the BBC estimates between 21,000 and 23,500 fighters from the Russian proxy Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics of occupied eastern Ukraine have been killed.

The Russian Defense Ministry last updated its official death toll for the invasion in September 2022, placing the figure at fewer than 6,000 killed.


UPDATE 1018 GMT:

Russia lost a two-month supply of ammunition in Wednesday’s Ukrainian drone attack on a military depot in Toropets in the Tver region, says the head of the Estonian Defense Forces’ intelligence center, Col. Ants Kiviselg.

Kiviseig assessed that around 750,000 rounds of ammunition with a total weight of 30,000 tons were destroyed in the attack: “This was a reserve for two to three months. In the coming weeks, we will see the consequences of these losses at the front.”

Amid the large fire at the depot, Tver Governor Igor Rudenya ordered a partial evacuation of the residents of Toropets.

Russian officials have not acknowledged the extent of the damage, and the Emergency Situations Ministry warned residents not to publish photos and videos from the scene of the incident, threatening criminal charges if they violated the order.

But satellite photos have confirmed the vast devastation at the site.


UPDATE 0708 GMT:

Ukrainian drones have reportedly detonated the Tikhoretsk ammunition depot in the Krasnodar region in southwest Russia.

Governor Veniamin Kondratiev acknowledged a fire but said it was from falling debris from a downed UAV in the village of Kamenny.

The Tikoretsk depot drew international attention in 2023 after the arrival of North Korean munitions.

Drones also attacked an ammunition depot in the village of Oktyabrsky in the Tver region, east of Moscow. A nearby railway station was evacuated.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed 101 downed drones overnight, but as usual made no reference to any damage.


UPDATE 0618 GMT:

Three people — a 12-year-old boy and women aged 75 and 79 — have been killed and three injured by Russian missile strikes on Kryvyi Rih in south-central Ukraine.

The wounded, including a 17-year-old boy, are in hospital in moderate condition.

Two people were slain and 17 injured in the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine on Friday.

The fatalities and two of the wounded were in the village of Kivsharivka. The other 15 injured, including three children, were from three strikes on Kharkiv city.

Eight of those injured in the city were hospitalized.

One guided bomb hit an area outside a hospital, with four patients wounded. A second hit an area of private homes, and the third an open area with grass.

In the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, a woman died in Russian shelling of an area outside Kherson city.


ORIGINAL ENTRY: Almost half of Russians in a nationwide poll support withdrawal of troops from Ukraine and negotiating for peace, even without achieving the military objectives of Vladimir Putin’s 31-month invasion.

In addition to the 49% backing withdrawal, 18% of respondents found it difficult to answer the question. Only 33% of survey participants supported ongoing operations.

Conducted by independent pollsters ExtremeScan and Chronicles, the poll is a notable shift from past surveys, possibly because of Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region in western Russia from early August.

In a February survey by the Levada Center, an independent Russian polling organization, 77% of Russians supported the invasion. Three previous polls since February 2023 by ExtremeScan and Chronicles found around 60% support.

Asked about the incursion into Kursk, far more respondents said it was more important to oust the Ukrainian troops from Russian territory (53%) than to seize more ground in eastern Ukraine (15%.

The poll found 63% support for a peace treaty with Ukraine with mutual concessions in the coming year. Given a choice between a new wave of mobilization and peace, 49% chose peace and only 29% preferred mobilization.

While 32% said they are prepared to participate in the war if ordered by the Russian Defense Ministry, 29% said they are not.

The poll surveyed 800 interviewees over the age of 18.