A destroyed Russian tank on the roadside near Sudzha in the Kursk region in western Russia, August 8, 2024

Thursday’s Coverage: Zelenskiy — “Victory Plan Is Fully Prepared”

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1504 GMT:

Ukraine Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has thanked the visiting Euorpean Commission head Ursula von der Leyen for the commitment to Kyiv of a €35 billion ($39 billion) loan, drawn from future profits of frozen Russian assets (see 0934 GMT).

“Russia must and will pay for their atrocities,” he emphasized.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his gratitude for humanitarian support, especially for the energy sector.

UPDATE 0942 GMT:

The Ukraine Air Force says air defenses downed 61 Iran-type drones fired by Russia overnight, with nine others crashing.

A Kh-59 guided missile was also intercepted.

Multiple regions were targeted, including areas near a nuclear plant.

At least two civilians were killed and 22 injured in other Russian attacks on the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, with infrastructure damage in several areas.

The governor of the Odesa region in southern Ukraine said a Russian missile strike damaged port areas in Odesa city and an Antigua-flagged civilian vessel. Four people were injured.

UPDATE 0937 GMT:

Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s Press Secretary has confirmed that the Ukrainian President will meet US President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, representatives of Congress from both parties, and Donald Trump during visits to Washington and to the UN General Assembly in New York next week.

UPDATE 0934 GMT:

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is in Kyiv on Friday (see 0546 GMT), will announce a €35 billion ($39 billion) European Union loan for Ukraine as part of a plan by the G7 nations to raise $50 billion from future profits of frozen Russian state assets, say “three people with knowledge of the plan”.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday evening:

These assets should be used to protect lives in Ukraine against Russian aggression. There is a clear decision regarding $50bn for Ukraine from Russian assets, and a mechanism for its implementation is needed to ensure that this support for Ukraine is felt in the near-future.

UPDATE 0843 GMT:

Ukraine has implicitly rejected the proposal of Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski that Crimea, seized by Russia, be placed under a UN mandate.

At a conference in Kyiv on Wednesday, Sikorski said the peninsula is of key importance to both Moscow and Kyiv, so the parties “will not be able to reach an agreement without… demilitarization”.

We could put it under a UN mandate with a mission to prepare a fair referendum after checking who its legal inhabitants are and things like that….And we could put it off for 20 years.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry responded on Thursday night:

Crimea is Ukraine. Period….

Crimea is the center of gravity of the European security architecture. Its full restoration is possible only after the complete de-occupation of the entire territory of Ukraine, including the Ukrainian peninsula.

The Ministry said it expects decisive support from Western partners to “force Russia to return to respect for international law and the UN Charter, withdraw its troops and weapons from all sovereign territory of Ukraine and restore its territorial integrity”.

All efforts should be aimed at achieving these goals more quickly, and not satisfying the Kremlin’s appetites in one way or another at the expense of Ukraine’s interests and international law.

UPDATE 0839 GMT:

Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has confirmed that another Samp-T air defense system is being sent to Ukraine.

Tajani told Italian radio, “Defending Ukraine does not mean bringing a world war….We are helping Ukraine and must reach a fair peace.”

UPDATE 0725 GMT:

The European Parliament has called on member states to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s long-range strikes inside Russia with Western-provided weapons.

Thursday’s resolution calls for permission for attacks on “legitimate military targets”.

The US has maintained a months-long ban on the strikes. Last week reports circulated that Washington might finally grant permission for Ukraine to use UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles, but there was no confirmation from Washington or London.

See also Ukraine War, Day 935: “Intense Consultations” on Long-Range Strikes Inside Russia

The Parliament also called on all European Union and NATO members to provide a minimum of 0.25% of GDP in military support to Ukraine.

UPDATE 0546 GMT:

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has arrived in Kyiv for discussions with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, including about energy security.

Von der Leyen said on Thursday that a fuel power plant is being dismantled in Lithuania and will be rebuilt in Ukraine: “We aim to restore 2.5 gw of capacity, which is 15% of Ukraine’s needs.”

She added that €160 million ($179 million) from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets will be allocated to meet Ukraine’s urgent humanitarian needs for this winter. The funds include €60 million euros ($67 million) for humanitarian aid such as shelters and heaters and €100 million euros ($111 million) for repair of energy infrastructure and development of renewables.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Russian documents raise questions about why Moscow, despite months of warnings, did not stop Ukraine’s cross-border incursion into the Kursk region in August.

The documents, seized by the Ukrainian army from abandoned Russian positions and seen by The Guardian, establish that Russia’s military command anticipated the incursion and had planned to prevent it for several months.

Despite the concerns, Ukraine’s operations from August 6 quickly swept through part of Kursk. Kyiv’s forces now control more than 100 settlements and around 1,300 km (500 square miles) of the region.

The memoranda also display Russian concerns about troop morale, citing the suicide of a soldier at the front who had reportedly been in a “prolonged state of depression due to his service in the Russian army”. Commanders were instructed to ensure soldiers consumed Russian state media daily to maintain their “psychological condition”.

The documents, beginning in late 2023 and running through late June, are mainly from units of Russia’s 488th Guards Motorised Rifle Regiment.

An entry from January 4 warned of the “potential for a breakthrough at the state border” by Ukrainian armed groups and ordered increased training. On February 19, unit commanders were told of Ukrainian plans for “a rapid push from the Sumy region into Russian territory, up to a depth of 80 km [50 miles], to establish a four-day ‘corridor’ ahead of the arrival of the main Ukrainian army units on armored vehicles”.

In mid-March, border units were ordered to boost defensive lines and “organize additional exercises for the leadership of units and strongpoints regarding the proper organization of defences”. In mid-June, there was a more specific warning of Ukrainian plans “in the direction Yunakivka-Sudzha, with the goal of taking [the border town of] Sudzha under control”. The document made another accurate prediction that Ukraine would destroy a bridge over the Seym River to disrupt Russian supply lines.

The documents offers a clue why, despite the repeated warning, the Russians could not check the incursion when it was finally launched. One from June complained that Russian units stationed at the front “are filled only 60-70% on average, and primarily made up of reserves with weak training”.

Unable to fill the ranks immediately, commanders should create decoy trenches and positions to confuse Ukrainian reconnaissance drones: “Models of tanks, armored vehicles and artillery launchers should be created as well as mannequins of soldiers, and they should be periodically moved around.” Soldiers should be sent to the decoy positions to light fires at night and walk around with torches, with radio chatter about the decoy positions to be intercepted by the Ukrainians.

Meanwhile, the problems with morale were mounting. One memo reports, “The analysis of the current situation regarding suicides shows that the issue of servicemen dying as a result of suicidal incidents remains tense.”

Summarizing a suicide on January 20, when a conscript soldier shot himself in the abdomen in the washing area of a guard post, it notes: “The investigation into the incident determined that the cause of the suicide and death was a nervous and psychological breakdown, caused by his prolonged state of depression due to his service in the Russian army.

Commanders are ordered to identify soldiers who “are mentally unprepared to fulfil their duties or prone to deviant behaviour, and organize their reassignment and transfer to military medical facilities”. Soldiers should get 5-10 minutes a day as well as an hour once a week of political instruction, “aimed at maintaining and raising the political, moral and psychological condition of the personnel”.

Report: Russia Plans To Evict Ukraine From Ukraine By Mid-October

RBC-Ukraine, citing unspecified sources, says Russian authorities have called on troops to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk by mid-October, establishing a “buffer zone” in border areas in northeast Ukraine.

The sources said Russian forces have concentrated 37,000 personnel in Kursk. They launched a counter-offensive” on September 10 but have not yet started large-scale combat operations.

In May, a Russian offensive into the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine advanced only about 10 km (6.2 miles) in depth.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that Russia had diverted around 40,000 troops, including from its offensive in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, to Kursk.

e