The explosion at Russia’s ammunition depot in Toropets, east of Moscow, from a Ukrainian drone strike, September 18, 2024

Saturday’s Coverage: Poll — 49% of Russians Support Withdrawal

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1252 GMT:

Before-and-after image of the devastation from Ukrainian drone strike on an ammunition depot in the Krasnodar region in southwest Russia:

And the damaged base in the Tver region, east of Moscow:

UPDATE 1222 GMT:

Two female employees have been killed and another person injured in Russian shelling of a mine in Udachne in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

A fire was started above ground, leading to the evacuation of 371 miners who were underground at the time of the attack.

Udachne, a village 12 km (7 miles) west of Pokrovsk, is the site of one of the largest coal mines in Ukraine.

UPDATE 1229 GMT:

Five civilians, including a 12-year-old girl, were killed and 4 wounded by Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

Casualties were reported in the Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Donetsk regions (see 0524 GMT).

Ukraine air defenses downed 71 of 80 Iran-type attack drones launched by Russia overnight. Russia also fired two Kh-59/69 missiles.

Commenting on the wounding of 21 civilians in Kharkiv city, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said: “Throughout the week, the enemy has used over 900 guided aerial bombs, around 400 ‘Shahed’ drones, and nearly 30 missiles of various types.”

UPDATE 0543 GMT:

In his nightly address to the nation, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said of the strikes on Russia’s ammunition depots:

This is a fundamental turning point – our ability to bring the war back home – to Russia….

These were depots of Russian tactical missiles and guided aerial bombs – all the things that Russia uses to terrorize our cities, our positions.

He noted that Ukraine had done this with “our capabilities” and “without the means that can be provided by our partners”. Those allies could “significantly accelerate the end of this war” by allowing the use of their weapons, including long-range missiles.

UPDATE 0524 GMT:

At least 21 civilians have been injured by a Russian guided bomb on an apartment block in Ukraine’s second city Kharkiv early Sunday.

The casualties include an 8-year-old child and two 17-year-olds. At least six of the wounded have been hospitalized, with a 17-year-old boy and a 39-year-old woman in serious condition. More than 60 people have been evacuated from the high-rise.

There were two other strikes on the city, a regular target of Russian attacks, damaging at least 24 cars.

In Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk region in south-central Ukraine, two civilians, including a 12-year-old girl, were salin and two injured by a drone strike which hit a car.

The wounded, a 4-year-old girl and a 25-year-old man, were hospitalized.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine has destroyed months of munitions for Vladimir Putin’s invasion with drone strikes on Russian ammunition depots in the past four days.

Devastation on Wednesday of the Toropets depot in the Tver region, east of Moscow, was followed yesterday by attacks on another deport in Tver and on a base in the Krasnodar region in southwest Russia.

Both the bases in Toropets and in Krasnodar have North Korean KN-23 missiles, and they may also be at the base near Oktyabrsky in Tver.

The head of the Estonian Defense Forces’ intelligence center, Col. Ants Kiviselg, estimated that Russia lost a two-month supply of ammunition in the Toropets attack alone. Around 750,000 rounds of ammunition with a total weight of 30,000 tons were destroyed.

“This was a reserve for two to three months,” Kiviseig explained. “In the coming weeks, we will see the consequences of these losses at the front.”

UK military intelligence adds:

The explosion at Toropets was recorded at 2.7 on the Richter scale, equivalent to a mild earthquake, with fires covering a 6-km wide area. It is highly likely that poor storage of munitions, left vulnerable to [drones], caused a chain reaction of cascading detonations within the bunker system.

The Krasnodar site is the main site in southwest Russia, but there are at least two more bases in the area…where North Korean ammunition is stored. Other targets for Ukraine could include an arsenal in the Bryansk region, 115 km (71 miles) from the border, one in the Novgorod region within 700 km (435 miles), and two or three bases near Moscow.

Military analyst Denys Popovych assessed on Saturday:

These bases are being taken out; they will no longer exist. Once the fire subsides, the Russians will need to determine which ammunition survived and which was damaged. They will also have to conduct mine-clearing operations for the ordnance scattered in the surrounding areas. They will need to reorient all this to other bases, which may be nearby. This involves reorganizing the railway and transportation systems and redistributing ammunition.

And, of course, this means physically destroying the ammunition itself. They will not make it to the front anymore. They won’t fall on heads. They will need to replenish those stocks again. This is no longer just one base; it’s now three.

There is a general understanding that this is the beginning of a large campaign aimed at systematically dismantling major Russian arsenals.