Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, May 2020


EA on RTE and Turkey’s ANews: The UN, Israel-Lebanon-Gaza, and Ukraine-Russia

EA on Australia’s ABC and Pat Kenny Show: Israel’s Airstrikes on Hezbollah and Lebanon


I joined India’s WION on Saturday to assess the immediate future for Lebanon’s Hezbollah after the Israeli killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah and senior commanders.

I begin with an analysis of the “serious blow to Hezbollah from which it will take some time to recover”, pointing out Nasrallah’s symbolic as well as political and military importance for the organization.

There is no single Hezbollah figure who can replace him.

Equally important, almost every significant Hezbollah military commander has been assassinated in recent weeks by Israel.

Hezbollah will replace these leaders, but they don’t have the experience that Nasrallah and other commanders had. And Hezbollah’s communications have been ripped apart by Israel.

Hezbollah has very few options, apart from the risky one of firing missiles on Israel.

I discuss Israel’s next steps, assessing that they are likely to be more airstrikes rather than a ground invasion.

The problem now — foremost for the Lebanese people — is that the country is on the point of collapse. Israel, I don’t think, can risk sending in ground forces because they will get bogged down as occupiers in a country which could return to the civil war of only a generation ago.

I conclude by answering, “What is the impact on ceasefire talks?” — “There will be no ceasefire talks” — through a summary of the personal and political aims of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Government.