Emergency services fight a fire set by Israel’s airstrikes across Lebanon, September 23, 2024 (Middle East Eye)

Q&A: After Israel’s Pager and Walkie-Talkie Attacks In Lebanon, What’s Next For Netanyahu, Hezbollah, and Iran?

EA on UK and Irish Media: Israel’s “Exploding Pager” and Walkie Talkie Attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanon

I joined Australia’s ABC News and Dublin NewsTalk’s Pat Kenny Show on Tuesday to evaluate Israel’s escalation of violence in Lebanon: airstrikes since Monday have killed at least 569 Hezbollah members and civilians, including at least 50 children and 94 women.

I outline the motives of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and others in his Government. I explain why Hezbollah’s options for response are limited. And I assess that Iran’s regime is likely to react politically, rather than with direct military intervention against Israel.

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I describe the deadliest day in Lebanon since 1982, “Israel has killed more than 500 people in 24 hours, and we don’t know when these operations will stop, when they will declare ‘victory’ over Hezbollah. You can expect many more deaths, not just of Hezbollah fighters but of Lebanese civilians.”

I consider the objectives of the Netanyahu, from degrading Hezbollah to distracting from problems with the “forever war” in Gaza. I assess why Israel is unlikely to carry out a ground invasion of Lebanon, and why Hezbollah is outmatched by the Israelis in an air war.

And I return to the ongoing Israeli mass killing in Gaza while noting, “What Netanyahu has effectively done is say to Israelis, ‘You really want to challenge me, to replace me when we are fighting Hezbollah as well as Hamas?'”

Listen to Pat Kenny Show

In a nine-minute chat with Pat Kenny, I look at Benjamin Netanyahu’s deadly actions, even as he says, “We’re not at war with the people of Lebanon”.

I explain why only firm US action might contain him, but why that is unlikely to occur, and discuss why not just the US but many others are “on the wrong side of history”.

I’m sorry to sound so cynical, but this is an absolute sham. Netanyahu has decided to expand Israeli military operations in Lebanon, and civilians will be — in those horrid words from the 1990s — “collateral damage”.

And Benjamin Netanyahu does not care how many die or if Lebanon falls apart as a country, as long as he can say that he has “won” over Hezbollah.

An extract from the interview: