Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US counterpart Joe Biden at the NATO Summit, Washington, D.C., July 11, 2024


Thursday’s Coverage: Kyiv’s Path to NATO Membership is “Irreversible”


Map: Institute for the Study of War


UPDATE 1155 GMT:

UK intelligence analysts assess that Russia’s casualties are at a record level during Vladimir Putin’s 28 1/2-month invasion of Ukraine.

The Defence Ministry said daily casualties were 1,262 in May and 1,162 in June. Total killed or wounded over the two months were around 70,000, amid Russia’s offensive in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine; cross-border assault on the neighboring Kharkiv region; and operations in other areas.

Casualties are expected at the same level over the next two month as Russia tries to “overmatch Ukrainian positions with mass”.

The analysts concluded, “Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the frontline, an effective Ukrainian defense and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia’s ability to exploit any tactical successes, despite attempting to stretch the frontline further.”


UPDATE 1137 GMT:

Ukraine Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin has asked the International Criminal Court to prosecute Russian officials over their missile strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv on Monday.

Russian attacks across the country killed 43 civilians, including four children, and wounded almost 200. A maternity hospital was also struck.

“For the sake of international justice, cases like the intentional attack on the biggest child hospital in Kyiv [are] worth lifting to the ICC,” Kostin said. “It’s important to show that Russia itself, at the moment, is a criminal state.”

The UN has said video analysis indicates a “high likelihood” that the Okhmatdyt hospital took a direct hit from a Russian missile. Photos showed staff comforting children, many of them kidney and cancer patients, evacuated from the building.


UPDATE 0806 GMT:

The UN General Assembly has demanded that Russian forces withdraw from the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine, with Ukrainian authorities regaining full control.

Russia seized the plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power station with six reactors, in the first weeks of its February 2022 invasion. The complex is being used as a military base, shelling Ukrainian positions such as the town of Nikopol across the Dnipro River.

The resolution was backed by 99 countries. It “demands that the Russian Federation urgently withdraw its military and other unauthorized personnel from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and immediately return the plant to the full control of the sovereign and competent authorities of Ukraine to ensure its safety and security.”

The resolution also condemns Russia for failing to implement safety protocols set out by the International Atomic Energy Agency and calls on Moscow to allow IAEA inspectors full access to the plant’s facilities.


UPDATE 0737 GMT:

At least seven civilians were killed and at least 43 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine on Thursday.

Air defenses downed all five Kh-101 cruise missiles and 11 of 19 Iran-type attack drones.

But in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, four people were killed and 21 injured.

A 15-year-old boy was slain and 13 people injured, including two 13-year-old boys, when Russia struck the town of Myrnohrad and damaged about 20 buildings. There were other fatalities in Raihorodok, Novoselivka Persha, and Siversk.

In the neighboring Kharkiv region, three people were killed and 13 injured.


UPDATE 0708 GMT:

The US has announced a $225 million military aid package for Ukraine.

Included are a Patriot air defense battery, additional ammunition for HIMARS rocket systems, missiles, artillery rounds, anti-armor systems, and small arms ammunition.

Norway is providing 1 billion Norwegian kroner ($92.69 million) in support for air defense, said Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, in addition to a commitment of six F-16 fighter jets.


UPDATE 0651 GMT:

US authorities have disrupted a Russian plot to assassinate the chief executive of Germany’s leading arms manufacturer Rheinmetall.

American officials said Moscow pursued revenge for Rheinmetall’s role in weapons supplies to Kyiv to withstand Vladimir Putin’s 28 1/2-month invasion.

The plot against Rheinmetall was one of several Russian plans to kill defense industry executives in Europe, said US and western officials.

On Thursday, a senior NATO official told reporters that the Kremlin’s destructive campaign across Europe is increasing in intensity: “We’re seeing sabotage, we’re seeing assassination plots, we’re seeing arson. We’re seeing things that have cost in human lives.”


UPDATE 0630 GMT:

Ukraine has seized a foreign cargo ship near Odesa and arrested its Azerbaijani captain, claiming it illegally exported Ukrainian grain via Russian-occupied Crimea.

The State security service SBU and prosecutors said the Cameroonian-flagged Usko Mfu repeatedly docked at the port of Sevastopol to load agricultural products in 2023-2024. Last November, the ship took on more 3,000 metric tons of agricultural products for delivery to a Turkish company.

An official with the vessel’s Turkish-based ship manager Iyem Asya maintained that its curren cargo was loaded in Moldova: “The ship, while under our ownership, did not take any cargoes from Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine and never used Ukrainian ports.”

In the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, Russian forces struck a grain storage facility, attacked firefighters, and started fires on dozen of hectares of land growing grain.


ORIGINAL ENTRY: Addressing the NATO Summit in Washington, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for the lifting of the ban on striking military targets inside Russia.

On the summit’s third and final day, Zelenskiy thanked partners for the commitment to provide more air defense systems, including US-made Patriots and French-Italian SAMP-Ts. He expressed gratitude “for the permission given to us to strike Russian territory along our border”, which helped repel Russia’s cross-border offensive into the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine in May.

But he continued, with reference to American ATACMS, British Storm Shadows, and French SCALP missiles with ranges of up to 300 miles:

[They] would be even more effective if we could hit Russian military airfields from which planes carrying the glided bombs take off. Russia is launching about 3,500 such bombs every month.

It is only fair to destroy those military bases that are attacking us and killing our people. Each of you would defend yourselves in the same way. We need this permission from our partners, and most importantly – from the United States.

During the summit, new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reiterated Ukraine’s control over the use of the Storm Shadows. However, the Biden Administration is still denying permission for any strike beyond the border area and on a military position directly supporting a Russian offensive.

Zelenskiy also put into context the announcement, by Netherlands and Denmark, that the first US-made F-16 fighter jets will be delivered to Ukraine this summer.

We need a sufficient number of F-16s. Russia uses about 300 combat aircraft; we need at least half of that. Training missions for pilots must expand.

How many years will we wait for half of 300 aircraft at the current speed of supply and training? The war shouldn’t last that long.

The President concluded:

If we want to win, if we want to prevail, to save our country and to defend it, we need to lift all the limitations….

Our victory should become a bridge to lasting peace for all of Europe. All this must be based on one strong word – invitation. Ukraine deserves an invitation to NATO. This certainty will irreversibly become the Alliance’s new, strong pillar. Only strong decisions make winners.

NATO head Jens Stoltenberg and the bloc’s members emphasized Ukraine’s “path to membership”, but did not put a timeframe for the process.