Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries in Mali in western Africa, July 2024

Monday’s Coverage: Zelenskiy — “Extremely Challenging” Situation in East

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 0956 GMT:

European Union officials have derided the demand of Hungary and Slovakia that the bloc press Ukraine to lift its ban on the transport of Russian oil to the two countries.

Ukrainian sanctions are blocking the transit of pipeline crude sold by Russia’s largest private oil firm, Lukoil, affecting up to 1/3 of the oil imports of Budapest and Bratislava.

At a meeting of the EU’s main trade dispute body last week, the two countries demanded the European Commission begin formal consultations with Kyiv.

The Commission responded that it needs more time to assess the claim and saying it has no obligation to respond within the three days demanded by the Hungarians and Czechs.

The EU executive also said Ukraine can suspend parts of the trade deal on security grounds in some circumstance.

EU diplomats noted that Hungary and Slovakia have had exemptions for two years from the bloc’s sanctions on imports of Russian oil, and could have adjusted their supplies and consumption in that time. One said:

Many EU members took costly but necessary efforts to get rid from dependence on Russian gas and oil…mainly because it stinks of blood.

It seems that Hungary has issues not only with its olfactory system but with its mindset and a lack of determination to get rid of dependencies.

Germany and Poland, who also imported supplies from the Druzhba pipeline across Ukraine, stopped purchases last year. The Czech Republic aims to end imports from Moscow by 2025, and Slovakia has begun upgrading its primary refinery to process more non-Russian crude.

But Hungary increased oil imports via the pipeline by 50% compared to 2021, and signed new deals with Russian gas giant Gazprom.

“I don’t think the Commission is eager to help Hungary,” said a EU diplomat. Hungary and Slovakia “should have not gone to Moscow”.

UPDATE 0747 GMT:

Russian internet pioneer Alexei Soldatov, 72 and terminally ill, has been imprisoned by a Moscow court for two years.

Soldatov, who founded the first internet provider in Russia, was condemned to a labor colony for “abuse of power”.

He was accused of managing a pool of IP addresses, even though he had no authority at the an organization where he worked.

Soldatov, a trained nuclear physicist, made his career in the Kurchatov Institute of Atomic Energy during the Cold War. He formed a team of programmers who in 1990 began to consider how they could connect the institute with other research centers in the country.

Soldatov became Deputy Minister of Communications in 2008 during the Presidency of Dmitry Medvedev. He left in November 2010, unwilling to support the development of a national computer operating system or a national search engine to separate the Russian Internet from the global network.

Andrei Lipov, the head of the national Department of the Internet, initiated an investigation against Soldatov.

His son Andrei Soldatov, a prominent journalist and author, commented on his father’s prison sentence:

His true crime in the eyes of this vicious regime? An independent mind, genuine integrity, and a son who lives in exile, writing about their homeland’s descent into dictatorship.

I have not seen my father since I left Russia four years ago. I hope I still have the chance to see him once again.

UPDATE 0726 GMT:

At least four civilians were killed and at least 14 injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

The four fatalities were in the Donetsk region in the east: three in Toretsk and one in Hrodivka. Five people were injured.

In the neighboring Kharkiv region, a 71-year-old man was injured in Kupyansk.

Russian attacks on the Kherson region in the south injured eight people. Critical infrastructure and port facilities, high-rise buildings, houses, and gas pipelines were damaged.

UPDATE 0720 GMT:

French President Emmanuel Macron has called on Iranian counterpart Massoud Pezeshkian, who is inaugurated this week, to curb Tehran’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Élysée Palace gave no further details.

Iran State and semi-official media does not refer to Macron’s statement. Instead, the feature Pezeshkian’s declaration, “The Zionist regime [Israel] will be making a big mistake if it attacks Lebanon, which will carry heavy consequences for them.”

UPDATE 0659 GMT:

Ukraine’s defenders have confirmed Russia’s capture of two villages in the Donetsk region in the east of the country.

A Ukrainian sergeant said Monday that the relentless Russian assaults finally overran Urozhaine and Staromaiorske in mid-July.

The Russians attacked Urozhaine and other Donetsk villages since October, despite taking hundreds of casualties each day. They had an artillery advantage of up to 7:1 and used guided bombs to devastate the areas.

Soldiers and officers said there were no civilians living in the two captured villages and there was nothing left to defend amid destroyed houses. “Karay”, an army major who fought in Urozhaine, said:

The battles took place in ruins, from basements. There were a few trenches, but there were no defensive structures, and it was impossible to build them.

Urozhaine has only two streets. Russian troops occupied half the village in June. Karay explained:

For a month and a half, it was like a fight between two packs of dogs. So much was flying around, the wounded could only be evacuated at night. So there came a moment when it made no sense to keep people there.

The Russians have captured one town, Avdiivka in mid-February, and a series of villages in the past nine months. On Sunday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the situation in Donetsk is “extremely challenging”, with the Russians attacking in the direction of Pokrovsk, a logistics hub about 25 km (15 miles) from Russian-occupied Donetsk city.

UPDATE 0651 GMT:

US officials have confirmed a new $1.7 billion military aid package to Ukraine.

The assistance includes munitions for air defense systems, artillery, mortars, and anti-tank and anti-ship missiles. It is funded by $1.5 billion for long-term contracts through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, and $200m in immediate military aid from Pentagon stockpiles.

The package is the ninth since the US Congress ended a six-month Trumpist blockade of aid in April, authorizing $60.8 billion in military support. The US has now sent more than $55.4 billion in security assistance during Russia’s 29-month invasion.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby said that in April, “there were legitimate concerns that Russia would achieve a strategic breakthrough on the battlefield by the summer.” However, since the aid was authorized, “Ukraine’s defensive lines have been fortified and Ukrainian forces have continued to fight bravely and repel Russia’s advances”.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine’s military intelligence agency has acknowledged involvement in an ambush that killed scores of Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries in Mali in western Africa last week.

Taureg rebels struck a convoy near the town of Tinzaouaten, near the Algerian border. Photos showed dozens of casualties, captured Russians, and their weapons and equipment.

Wagner-linked accounts on social media reported 20 to 80 slain mercenaries, with others wounded or captured during a five-day battle with heavy weapons, drones, and suicide bombers. The former commander of the 13th mercenary detachment said, “There are more than 80 people…[dead] as a result of this operation. More than 15 people are in captivity.” A local official added that the Malian military lost at least 17 troops.

Among the fatalities were Wagner commander Sergey Shevchenko, and the administrator of the mercenaries’ Telegram channel Grey Zone, Nikita Fedyanin.Andrii Yusov, the spokesman for Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency, said Monday, “The rebels received necessary information, and not just information, which enabled a successful military operation against Russian war criminals”.

Yusov did not confirm if Ukrainian military personnel were involved in the fighting or were present in Mali: “[We] won’t discuss the details at the moment, but there will be more to come”.

Russia has expanded its presence in Mali, backing the junta that took power in a May 2021 coup. Wagner mercenaries, invited by the junta to provide “security”, soon entered the country.

The Tuaregs are an ethnic group in the northern part of the country who are seeking an independent state of Azawad.

Why France Failed in Mali — and How Russia Took Advantage