Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Amir Cohen/Reuters/File)
I joined Mary-Ann Okon on Nigeria’s Info FM on Thursday for a 30-minute deep dive analysis both of Israel-Iran tensions and of Israel’s open-ended war in Gaza.
I begin with the context for this month’s exchange of “demonstration” strikes by Iran and Israel on each other’s territory, establishing why direct war is unlikely — but indirect war will continue.
EA on International Outlets: Explaining Israel’s “Demonstration” Strikes on Iran
EA on International Outlets: Iran’s “Demonstration” Attacks on Israel
Then I evaluate the current dynamics of Israel’s mass killings in Gaza, explaining why they are unlikely to stop because of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s position and Hamas’s demand for a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
I ask: would an Israeli invasion of Rafah, where up 1.5 million of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are hoping for shelter, finally be the crossing of a red line, one which would push the US into a cutoff of military and political support?
Only 25% success: the failure of American air defense systems against Iran missiles: https://www.kikar.co.il/security-news/scswsb
“The US released a total of 8 interceptors on the night of the Iranian attack (at incoming ballistic missiles) – only 2 (interceptors) hit.” Israel is claiming a 90% interception rate (down from 99%), however, it is also known that half of the ballistic missiles Iran fired failed during flight, rather than being intercepted, as they were old and not well maintained.