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Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system intercepts missiles fired from Iran, April 14, 2024 (Tomer Neuberg/AP)
Israel and Partners Down “99%” of 300+ Missiles and Drones Fired by Iran
Q&A: Is An Iran-Israel War Imminent?
UPDATE: EA on RTE — Will Iran Attack Israel and US?
I joined Beverley O’Connor on Australia’s ABC News to analyze further Iran’s “demonstration” attack on Israel, Tehran’s tactics, and the possible Israeli responses — short of a direct strike on Iran — against Iranian targets in the region.
Will Israel continue the targeted assassinations of Iranians in Syria? Will they step up targeting of Hezbollah officials in Lebanon? Will they carry out covert operations in Iran, especially against the Iranian military?
The focal point is Israel’s open-ended war in Gaza. There’s no apparent halt to that with more than 33,000 people killed. This attack on Gaza intersects with other conflicts in the region.
UPDATE, APRIL 15:
I spoke with France 24 English on Monday morning about the aftermath of Iran’s “demonstration” strikes on Israel.
An extract from the interview:
Iran’s leaders wanted to look tough, especially to their own people, amid Israel’s assassination of Iranian commanders, but they weren’t going for direct confrontation with the Israelis.
#Israel is weighing out responses to #Iran's drone attack conducted over the weekend which emplyed more than 300 missiles and drones.
On #F24theWorldToday, @StuartNorval spoke with @ScottLucas_EA, US and International Politics Professor @Clinton_InstUCD for more ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/nwjnXLM75H
— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) April 15, 2024
ORIGINAL ENTRY, APRIL 14: I joined BBC Radio Scotlandon Sunday to evaluate Iran’s launch of more than 300 missiles and drones on Israel.
Listen to Discussion from 41:11
I explain how the significance was not its military effect, with 99% of the munitions downed, minor damage, and only one serious casualty. In part, this was because Iran “telegraphed” the attack days in advance, as Israel and its partners identified the launch sites and paths of the missiles and drones.
Instead, the objective of Iran’s regime was symbolic: 1) to a domestic audience to pose that it could be tough in response to Israel’s assassinations of Iranian commanders, included in Tehran’s embassy complex in Syria on April 1; and 2) to Israel, warning that future Israeli operations might prompt an even greater response.
I also consider how the Biden Administration, through a phone call from President Joe Biden to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is warning Israel against a “counter-attack” on Tehran.
More information about Operation True Promise: https://amwaj.media/media-monitor/did-iran-deploy-hypersonic-missiles-in-attack-on-israel
“As further details about Operation ‘True Promise’ emerge, there are indications that Iran has yet to deploy a number of advanced weapons systems with the range to hit Israel. While the vast majority of Iranian drones and missiles were intercepted in the Apr. 14 attack, it is important to consider that most of the munitions were brought down by non-Israeli forces beyond Israel’s borders. It is unclear whether this arrangement can be replicated, particularly on short notice. The Iranian attack was telegraphed in advance and reportedly targeted only military sites in the Golan Heights and the south of Israel. A broader Iranian attack without advance warning that may follow Israeli reprisals could thus be deadly. Amid a growing military partnership with Russia and reports that Iranian arms are ending up in Africa, ‘True Promise’ may also have served as a presentation to prospective arms buyers.”
[Editor’s Note: A useful analysis from Chatham House, but nowhere does it argue that Iran’s attack was “a strategic success”.
Instead, the authors conclude, “Like any other attack, it had its fair share of unintended consequences. Chief among them is the virtual end of Israel’s international isolation due to its disastrous war in Gaza.”]
Iran’s attack largely a strategic succcess: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/04/irans-attack-israel-was-not-failure-many-claim-it-has-ended-israels-isolation
[Editor’s Note: Mondoweiss is an opinion site which tends to amplify any claims diminishing US and Israeli Governments.]
A useful analysis from Chatham House, but nowhere does it argue that Iran’s attack was “a strategic success”.
So, when judged solely by its strategic goal from Iran’s perspective – to bolster Iranian deterrence and attempt to rewrite the rules of engagement with Israel – Iran’s attack was largely successful. Iran showcased more capability in its attack than its detractors would like to admit. Iran forced Israel, and the United States, to spend more than a billion dollars to counter its attack. That’s not an insignificant outcome, considering that Iran paid roughly one tenth of that to mount its attack. In a fiscally-constrained and politically-charged environment in Washington, increasing US military assistance to Israel is not guaranteed.” https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/04/irans-attack-israel-was-not-failure-many-claim-it-has-ended-israels-isolation
Why Iran’s retaliatory attack against Israel was not a ‘failure’: https://mondoweiss.net/2024/04/why-irans-retaliatory-attack-against-israel-was-not-a-failure/
“Inflated claims of Israel’s remarkable military success in thwarting Iran’s strikes ignores the fact that Iran was deliberately restrained to avoid regional war, while the strikes forced Israel to give away its defensive positions….the scale of Iran’s attack, the diversity of locations it targeted, and weapons it used, forced Israel to uncover the majority of anti-missile technologies the US and it have across the region. The Iranians did not use any weapons Israel didn’t know it had…..But the Iranians likely now have almost a full map of what Israel’s missile defence system looks like, as well as where in Jordan and the Gulf the US has installations.”
[Editor’s Note: The link is incomplete.]
Iran to tell the truth about the damage caused by the drone and missile strikes: news/85445673/Iran-to-release-details-of-damage-inflicted-on-
[Editor’s Note: Full context for the comment, from ABC News….
“No significant damage was reported.
Five ballistic missiles hit the Nevatim Air Base, damaging a C-130 transport aircraft, an unused runway and empty storage facilities, a U.S. official said. Four additional ballistic missiles hit the Negev Air Base, but there were no reports of significant damage.”
The claim that Iran fired only 20 ballistic missiles is also a blatant falsehood.]
US official: At least 9 Iranian ballistic missiles hit 2 airbases in Israel: https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-hamas-war/?id=108860743
This exposes the lie that “99%” of the projectiles were intercepted: that would mean Iran launched 900 projectiles. The Nevatim was one of the bases hit. The Iranians actually only launched 20 ballistic missiles, and not the 120 claimed by the Israelis , meaning that about half were not intercepted.
[Editor’s Note: Perhaps needless to say, the Israeli military has not said that “7 ballistic missiles” hit the Netavim base — they have said “a small number” got through air defenses.
Iran regime and Hezbollah outlets are making up numbers, with some declaring that “15” missiles struck Netavim.]
The Israelis admit that 7 ballistic missiles hit their Netavim base inthe Negev. The drones were just a decoy that deplted air defense munitions. The 99% interception rate is a number the Israelis have pre-determined and is to reassure their citizens they are protected.