An image from a Revolutionary Guards video of explosions in Iran’s skies, April 19, 2024
EA on International Outlets: Explaining Israel’s “Demonstration” Strikes on Iran
EA on International Outlets: Iran’s “Demonstration” Attacks on Israel
Israel and Partners Down “99%” of 300+ Missiles and Drones Fired by Iran
UPDATE, APRIL 20:
An explosion on a base with Iran-linked militia in central Iraq has killed at least one person and wounded eight.
Sources from Iraq’s Interior Ministry and the military said the blast was on the Calso base, where the former pro-Iranian paramilitary group Hashed al-Shaabi – now integrated into the regular army – is stationed.
Hashed al-Shaabi said it suffers “material losses” and casualties, without giving numbers. A military official said three Iraqi military personnel were wounded.
Two officials blamed the explosion on an airstrike but could not say who was responsible.
UPDATE 1050 GMT:
Israeli officials have told the Jerusalem Post that assets of the Iran Air Force, “almost right next door to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear site in the same area”, were struck in this morning’s attacks in Isfahan Province.
They said, “The message was unmistakable, ‘We chose not to hit your nuclear sites this time, but we could have done worse right here.'”
UPDATE 0713 GMT:
A “senior Iranian official” says Tehran has no plan for immediate retaliation against Israel: “The foreign source of the incident has not been confirmed. We have not received any external attack, and the discussion leans more towards infiltration than attack.
An Iranian analyst further distanced Israel from the strikes, saying mini-drones shot down by air defenses in Isfahan were flown by “infiltrators from inside Iran”.
In Israel, the hard-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has criticized his Government: “Feeble!”
דרדל׳ה!
— איתמר בן גביר (@itamarbengvir) April 19, 2024
Israel’s Home Front Command said there were no special instructions for staying near bomb shelters, indicating no Iranian response is expected.
ORIGINAL ENTRY, APRIL 19: Responding to Sunday’s “demonstration” strikes by Iran, Israel has carried out its own inside Iranian territory.
Explosions were reported on Friday morning over Isfahan in central Iran, and Tabriz in the northwest of the country. The Israelis appeared to have used only drones, refraining from missiles to limit the operations.
Two Israeli and three Iranian officials confirmed the attacks. The Iranian officials said a military base was struck.
Isfahan, with a population of about 2 million, is home to Iranian nuclear facilities — including Natanz, one of its two largest — and military bases. Without claiming responsibility, Israel carried out drone strikes against Iranian missile and drone “workshops” in May 2021 and January 2023, and it damaged part of Natanz, for the manufacture of nuclear centrifuges, in a sabotage operation in April 2021.
Iranian officials said nuclear sites were “secure” after this morning’s strikes. The International Atomic Energy Agency said there was no damage.
The IAEA called for “extreme restraint” from all sides: “Nuclear facilities should never be a target in military conflicts.”
The Fars site, linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, reported three explosions were heard near the Shekari army airbase in northwest Isfahan Province. Space Agency spokesperson Hossein Dalirian said “several” drones had been “successfully shot down”.
An Iranian Army commander, Siavosh Mihandoust, also played down the attack. He said there was no damage, and explosions in Isfahan were from air defense systems targeting a “suspicious object”.
Other information indicates Iranian officials were given advance notice that an attack was imminent. Commercial airlines, including UAE-based Emirates and FlyDubai, began diverting flight routes over western Iran early Friday morning without explanation. Iranian authorities suspended flights to Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz, and other airports in the west, northwest.
Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization says flight restrictions in several airports have now been lifted.
The NYT on Israel’s scaled back plans to attack Iran: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/22/world/middleeast/israel-iran-war-strike.html
“One missile on Friday hit an antiaircraft battery in a strategically important part of central Iran, while another exploded in midair, the officials said. One Israeli official said that the Israeli Air Force intentionally destroyed the second missile once it became clear that the first had reached its target, to avoid causing too much damage. One Western official said it was possible the missile had simply malfunctioned.”
The Israelis suffer from bravado. They would never destroy their own missile. It either failed or was intercepted.
Israel planned bigger attack on Iran: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israelis-tell-nyt-original-plan-was-major-strike-on-military-targets-near-tehran-beyond/
“Citing Israeli and Western officials, the Times account also said Israel fired “a small number of missiles” from aircraft stationed several hundred miles west of Iran, and also launched small attack drones, known as quadcopters, “to confuse Iranian air defenses……A single missile hit an antiaircraft battery in a strategically important part of central Iran, the report said — previous accounts had indicated this was part of the S-300 air defenses for the Natanz nuclear facility — while another exploded in midair. An Israeli official was quoted as saying this second missile was destroyed by the Air Force “once it became clear that the first had reached its target, to avoid causing too much damage.” The Times also cited a Western official who suggested the second missile may have “simply malfunctioned.”
Iranian bloggers are insistent that the radar site in Esfahan was not hit by a missiles and that the Israeli warhead was intercepted: https://twitter.com/Haman_Ten/status/1782064948098544003
The satellite evidence continues to be disputed: https://twitter.com/EternalPhysics/status/1781964066065440792
Two perspectives on Operation “True Promise”.
The first is from a professor at the University of London’s SOAS which claims the recent exchange shows Israel has allies whereas Iran is isolated and vulnerable.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/22/iran-israel-middle-east-escalation-tehran
“The big picture shows that Iran’s hands are tied. Israel will continue to take advantage of this vulnerability to embarrass Iran further and try to gradually cripple its proxies.”
The second is from an Indian professor who argues the operation was a resounding success:
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/04/22/724142/how-iran-shattered-israeli-deterrence-redefined-rules-engagement
“In order to minimize damage, Iran deliberately overlooked the most important element of military thinking—operational surprise. The aim was not to maximize damage but to bolster deterrence, redefine redlines and rewrite the rules of engagement with Israel…..The second prong was related to clearly communicating the potential costs in case of crossing the newly defined redlines established by Tehran.”
Here is my take on why Iran’s attacks and Israel’s muted response was a big win for the Islamic Republic:
1. In attacking Israel (albeit telegraphed and with the intention of not causing damage), the Islamic Republic has restored credibility in the eyes of its people, especially government supporters. Ayatollah Khamenei was being openly criticised for not approving retaliation for multiple Israelis attacks prior to this.
2. The attack, militarily, represented the largest aerial attack in a single operation in history. Despite the interceptions, the Iranians hit three [[Editor’s Note: the correct number is two] airbases.
3. Even reformists, outraged over the bombing of an Israeli embassy compound and killing of military officers, have welcomed the strike helping to foster national unity.
4. The attack cost Israel over $1bn in air defense missiles. That is a price that Americans will have to bear, but it is no small amount.
5. The Israelis were forced to use their best weapons to counter Iran’s arguably least advanced weapons and gave away their capabilities and exposed the locations of their air defenses.
6. Iran has improved its image in the Arab and Muslim world in standing up to the racist, apartheid and genocidal regime that is the Zionist State of Israel.
7. Iran has achieved some strategic deterrence. The Israelis will think twice before attacking Iranian assets. The fact that Israel had to be helped to defend itself shattered its aura of invincibility.
8. The armed forces of Iran have redeemed themselves from the debacle of 2020 when they retaliated against the United States but accidentally shot down a civilian aircraft.
I assume you are posting this KOSESHER (BS) for “omaat eslami” ahmagh va koor goosaleh (iri followers) who follow you and rahbareh farzaneh (SL)
Here is another view…
https://youtu.be/ZDbNDq7Z_kc?si=m3bWOdtd7OSzw2kk
A drone struck the road leading to the Mt Hermon airbase in the Golan heights: https://static.timesofisrael.com/www/uploads/2024/04/WhatsApp_Image_2024-04-14_at_20.03.02_1.jpeg?_gl=1*xsn1gz*_ga*ODE4MTMxOTk0LjE3MTIyNjQ5NzI.*_ga_RJR2XWQR34*MTcxMzgwMDIwNi45LjAuMTcxMzgwMDIxOC4wLjAuMA..
“Probable damage” to radar site at Esfahan: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-68866548
Not clear cut enough for Iran to admit a missile hit the base. Three were said to have been fired from Israeli warplanes flying over Iraq. Only one got through.
Shame on fools who believe anything you say.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202404211475
Iran’s currency begins to recover: https://www.bonbast.com/#google_vignette
Crude oil exports are at their highest level in 6 years: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Irans-Oil-Exports-Climb-to-the-Highest-Level-in-6-Years.html
Let the herd of cattle (goosaleh) aka “omaat” read the good news.
https://www.radiofarda.com/a/32904098.html
[Editor’s Note: Commenter is being deceptive — this statement (from Sunday morning, hours after the attack), the IDF spokesperson said *no* cruise missiles reached Israeli airspace. Of the 30, 25 were intercepted and the other 5 failed to deploy.]
Israel now admits that 5 of the 30 cruise missiles Iran launched were not interepted:https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20240414-countering-irans-overnight-attack-costs-israel-1-35b-israeli-media/
“25 out of 30 cruise missiles were intercepted, and of the more than 120 ballistic missiles, only a few of them penetrated Israeli territory and landed at the Nevatim air base.”
We now know that of the 320 projectiles launched by Iran, only 160 of them actually took off successfully, most of them being old and not well-maintained.
There is no evidence yet of an actual airstrike or missile strike. Quadcopters appear to have attacked one of the Esfahan military airbases and were all shot down: https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2024/04/19/iranian-media-no-evidence-of-missile-attack-after-air-defence-alert
The Israelis attacked a weapons factory recently using the same equipment. Some damage was done to the roof of the building. As with the strikes on Israel, people should wait for satellite imagery to be released before just blindly accepting what some officials are claiming.