Destroyed Russian tanks near Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine in early 2023

I joined Dublin NewsTalk’s Pat Kenny Show on Monday to analyze the current and future state of Russia’s 15-month invasion of Ukraine, beginning with the fundamental, “Vladimir Putin cannot win his war.”

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I review how Moscow’s ambition to overrun Kyiv within days culminated in a withdrawal from northern Ukraine in spring 2022, followed by Ukrainian liberation of territory in the northeast and south in the autumn. Putin’s food and energy wars also failed to break Ukraine’s resistance.

That brings us to the present, anticipating a further Ukrainian counter-offensive. I analyze the military, political, and economic dimensions, and look forward to a position where negotiations with a defeated Putin — or his successor — might begin.

In a related aside, I also consider the situation in Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has won re-election — only to face domestic problems challenging his attempt to present himself as an international strongman.