Destroyed Russian tanks near Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine in early 2023
I joined Dublin NewsTalk’s Pat Kenny Show on Monday to analyze the current and future state of Russia’s 15-month invasion of Ukraine, beginning with the fundamental, “Vladimir Putin cannot win his war.”
Listen to Discussion
I review how Moscow’s ambition to overrun Kyiv within days culminated in a withdrawal from northern Ukraine in spring 2022, followed by Ukrainian liberation of territory in the northeast and south in the autumn. Putin’s food and energy wars also failed to break Ukraine’s resistance.
That brings us to the present, anticipating a further Ukrainian counter-offensive. I analyze the military, political, and economic dimensions, and look forward to a position where negotiations with a defeated Putin — or his successor — might begin.
In a related aside, I also consider the situation in Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has won re-election — only to face domestic problems challenging his attempt to present himself as an international strongman.
[Editor’s Note: Pointed comments about Mearsheimer’s damaging “realism” with respect to Ukraine, are in this podcast.]
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Why isn’t EA Worldview reporting on the small group of Americans (e.g. Jack Matlock, John Mearsheimer) pushing for negotiations?
[Editor’s Note: A good example of “Jean” being taken in by Russia propaganda. Lindsey Graham did *not* make the statement posted below — video of his visit to Kyiv was edited to distort what he had said.
In any case, Jean is pretty much now on the lines of Baghdad Bob in Iraq in 2003.]
It’s true. Ukraine doesn’t want to launch an offensive. Who can blame them? It has little chance of succeeding. But the Americans want it, and they are running out of patience. Why do you think Senator Lindsay Graham went to Kiev? He said US taxpayer money used to kill Russians is a good investment, knowing that it will result in the loss of more Ukrainian lives. The US is pushing Ukraine into the abyss just to weaken an old foe. If Ukraine’s supporters care about Ukraine, why are they doing this?
Come on, EA Worldview. Come to your senses.
[Editor’s Note: Not sure where to start with this nonsense. “Jean” appears to be an example of the diehard supporter who loses all contact with reality as the situation worsens for his/her preferred leader and/or system.]
“I analyze the military, political, and economic dimensions, and look forward to a position where negotiations with a defeated Putin — or his successor — might begin.”
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You’re delusional. Russia is in to win it. Josep Borrell said so himself. NATO is about to give up. The outdated F-16s are a last-ditch-effort because there is nothing else to give Ukraine. They know that these planes are no match for Russia’s air defences. Why do you think some people in Washington are talking about freezing the conflict? NATO wouldn’t want to freeze the conflict and explore the possibilities of a Korea-type armistice if Ukraine was winning. And any successor to Putin would be far more difficult to deal with. Putin is a moderate. Always has been. If Ukraine prevented Russian forces from taking Kiev, then Ukraine should have been allowed to negotiate in Istanbul, when it was in a much stronger position.
“Editor’s Note: Since we have extensive evidence of the Kremlin’s plans for the initial phase of the invasion, including the quick occupation of Kyiv, this comment can be dismissed as either ill-informed or a parroting of Moscow’s line.]”
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To the Editor:
Where can EA Worldview readers find this evidence? It was an intimidation tactic that had initially produced positive results.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/02/diplomacy-watch-why-did-the-west-stop-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/
[Editor’s Note: Since we have extensive evidence of the Kremlin’s plans for the initial phase of the invasion, including the quick occupation of Kyiv, this comment can be dismissed as either ill-informed or a parroting of Moscow’s line.]
“I review how Moscow’s ambition to overrun Kyiv within days culminated in a withdrawal from northern Ukraine in spring 2022, followed by Ukrainian liberation of territory in the northeast and south in the autumn. Putin’s food and energy wars also failed to break Ukraine’s resistance.”
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This was not Moscow’s ambition. It was an intimidation tactic meant to persuade Kiev to negotiate. And “Putin’s food and energy wars?” Do African and Latin American countries understand it in that way? If I recall correctly, Kenya just received 30,000 tonnes of Russian grain and fertilizer that Brussels seized.