Smoke rises from explosions in Sevastopol Bay in Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukraine, October 29, 2022

Saturday’s Coverage: Russia Ends Putin’s Failed “Mobilization”

Source: institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1802 GMT:

Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry says 218 ships are “effectively blocked” by Russia’s suspension of the July deal lifting its blockade of Black Sea ports.

Of the 218, 95 have left Ukrainian ports and awaiting inspection for shipment to the final destination, and 101 empty ships are awaiting inspection at the entrance to Ukrainian ports. Another 22 are waiting to leave port.

UPDATE 1755 GMT:

“Deeply concerned” about Russia’s threat to scupper the deal for Ukraine’s grain exports, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has delayed his travel to Algiers for the Arab League Summit by a day.

UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said, “The Secretary-General continues to engage in intense contacts aiming at the end of the Russian suspension of its participation.”

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar is in talks with counterparts in Russia and Ukraine, the Defense Ministry said. Akar is asking the parties to avoid any “provocation”.

UPDATE 0828 GMT:

European Union foreign policy head Josep Borrell has called on Russia to lift its threat of a renewed blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.

US President Joe Biden said Russia’s suspension of the July deal for Ukraine exports is “purely outrageous”. Secretary of state, Antony Blinken said in a statement:

Russia is again weaponizing food in the war it started, directly impacting low- and middle-income countries and global food prices, and exacerbating already dire humanitarian crises and food insecurity.

NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu said, “President Putin must stop weaponising food and end his illegal war on Ukraine. We call on Russia to reconsider its decision and renew the deal urgently, enabling food to reach those who need it most.”

UPDATE 0546 GMT:

Reports are circulating that Vladimir Putin has fired yet another military commander.

Citing a Russian Defense Ministry source, the Moscow Times says Central Military District commander Col.-Gen. Alexander Lapin has been dismissed.

Both Putin advisor Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the mercenary Wagner Group, and Chechnya leader Ramzan Kadyrov have been demanding Lupin’s removal. They blame the commander for the loss of Russian-occupied territory in northeast and east Ukraine, including the strategic town of Lyman.

Lapin, 58, has been in command of the Central Military District since 2017. Before that, he was commander of the headquarters of Russian forces in Syria.

UPDATE 0533 GMT:

In his nightly address to the nation, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called out the Russian threat to renew its blockade of Black Sea ports.

Russia began deliberately aggravating the food crisis back in September, when it blocked the movement of ships with our food. From September to today, 176 vessels have already accumulated in the grain corridor, which cannot follow their route. Some grain carriers have been waiting for more than three weeks.

This is an absolutely deliberate blockade by Russia. This is an absolutely transparent intention of Russia to return the threat of large-scale famine to Africa and Asia.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Russia has threatened to renew its blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports after explosions struck its warships in occupied Crimea early Saturday.

The Defense Ministry suspended participation in the July deal, brokered by the UN and Turkey, to ensure Ukrainian exports of grains and other agricultural produce.

Moscow had already warned that it might not renew the agreement, which has enabled the shipment of 9 million tons since August, by the deadline of November 19. Russia wants an easing of sanctions over Vladimir Putin’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine.

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric reacted:

It is vital that all parties refrain from any action that would imperil the Black Sea Grain Initiative which is a critical humanitarian effort that is clearly having a positive impact on access to food for millions of people around the world.

How Badly is Russian Navy Damaged?

The Russian Defense Ministry played down any damage to the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol Bay, following Ukraine’s sinking of the Russian flagship Moskva on April 14.

The Ministry declared that all “nine unmanned aerial vehicles and seven autonomous sea drones” were downed, with only minor damage to the minesweeper Ivan Golubets.

However, Russian military bloggers as well as Ukrainian sources discussed far more serious damage amid images on social media of the explosions in the bay
. Some speculated that Russia’s replacement flagship, the Admiral Makarov, may have been hit.

The Russian governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, said the raid on the port was the largest by Ukraine during the invasion. He order all civilian CCTV to be turned off so the position of air defenses are not revealed.

Mykhalio Podolyak, a senior advisor to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, taunted the Russians:

However, Podolyak said there was no justification for the Russian response — “Nuclear blackmail, energy terror, grain blockade” — and Zelenskiy’s Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak amplified the accusation of “blackmail” and “invented terror attacks”.

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba followed up:

Russia: “The UK Did It”

The Russian Defense Ministry also declared, without evidence, that the UK helped the Ukrainians with the attack. It said a Royal Navy specialist unit based in Ochakiv in southern Ukraine had provided guidance.

The Ministry also announced in September that the unit had sabotaged the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in September. Western intelligence agencies assess that the Russians are responsible.

The UK Defense Ministry responded to the latest Russian assertions: “To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims on an epic scale.”