UPDATE, MARCH 16:

As Russia tries to repair the damage from its ultimatum linking a final Iran nuclear deal to lifting of US sanctions on Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian negotiator in the Vienna talks has tried to shift blame to Washington.

Mikhail Ulyanov snapped, in a response to a Wall Street Journal report that Russia is stepping back from the ultimatum:

According to a “senior western diplomat” who spoke to the Wall Street Journal, Ulyanov told European Union brokers that Russia will accept narrower guarantees which ensure Moscow can fulfil obligations under the 2015 nuclear deal.

These obligations include a uranium swap with Iran, ensuring Tehran moves out its stock of 20% and 60% enriched uranium; redesign of the Fordow nuclear facility; and the provision of nuclear fuel to Iranian reactors.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, having returned from talks with Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, took a moderate line on Tuesday.

He told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi by phone, “If the American side is realistic, we will finalize a good, strong, and lasting agreement with the support of all negotiating parties in Vienna.”

UPDATE, MARCH 15:

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has met Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, following Lavrov’s ultimatum linking US sanctions on Russia — over the invasion of Ukraine — to a final Iran nuclear deal.

Lavrov issued a template statement after the meeting:

We discussed in detail the current situation around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program.

We are in favor of the earliest possible resumption of full implementation of this agreement, which was backed by the UN Security Council resolution, on the basis of the original balance of interests contained therein.

Lavrov did not repeat the ultimatum. However, he implicitly referred to Ukraine and the international sanctions on Moscow: “We are waiting for the US to return to the legal framework of this nuclear deal, and we are also waiting for the lifting of the illegal sanctions the US has imposed to hurt not only Iran and its people, but a number of other countries.”

Amir-Abdollahian criticized “unilateral sanctions” and said the two sides would concentrate on finding a political solution to the Ukraine issue.

Lavrov issued the vague declaration, “We received written guarantees [from the US]. They are included in the text of the agreement itself on the resumption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian nuclear program.”

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated that Russia — having backed off Lavrov’s ultimatum because of Iranian criticism — would again link the Ukraine-related sanctions to the revision of the 2015 nuclear deal.

“The sanctions against Russia directly affect the interests of our country in the context of that deal,” Peskov told reporters. “So the sanctions must be taken into account. This is a new aspect that cannot be ignored, that must be taken into account.”

UPDATE 1315 GMT:

European Union foreign policy head Josep Borrell says a pause is needed in the Iran nuclear talks because of “external factors”.

Borrell noted, “A final text is essentially ready and on the table.”

Russia’s representative Mikhail Ulyanov continued to insist that a threat by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov — demanding that a guarantee against US sanctions on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine be included in the revised Iran deal — had nothing to do with a delay in resolution.

After meeting the EU’s broker of the talks, Enrique Mora, Ulyanov told reporters, “The conclusion of the deal does not depend on Russia only. There are other actors who need additional time and who have additional concerns, and they are being discussed.”

UPDATE, MARCH 11:

The Iran nuclear deal is in the balance as Tehran’s officials shift attention from Russian obstruction and blame the US.

The Secretary of the National Security Council Ali Shamkhani tweeted on Thursday:

Shamkhani has taken a hard line on resolution of outstanding issues including lifting of US sanctions, an American guarantee against future withdrawal, and Iran’s return to compliance including a renewed ban on enrichment of 20% and even 60% uranium.

See also EA on PTV World: Russia’s Failed Gamble Over Iran Nuclear Talks

But Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, who had been more welcoming of a possible deal, blamed the US for “a new and different message to us every day through a coordinator”.

Amir-Abdollahian was speaking after a discussion with the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.

Amir-Abdollahian did offer the olive branch, “If realism governs the behavior of all parties, we are still close to reaching a good and strong agreement.”

President Ebrahim Raisi postured, “”he government is doing negotiations in the way of the Supreme Leader’s framework and has not and will not retreat from any red lines (that) were announced.”

France’s Foreign Ministry warned that time was short for completion the deal. Spokesperson Anne-Claire Legendre said:

We are very close to an agreement, but the window of opportunity is closing,” Foreign ministry told reporters in a daily briefing.

We are concerned about the risks that additional delays pose to the possibility of concluding. Together with our E3 partners [the UK and Germany], we call on all parties to take a responsible approach and make the decisions necessary to conclude this agreement.

UPDATE, MARCH 9:

Iran’s chief negotiator, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri Kani, suddenly left the Vienna talks for consultations in Tehran.

No further information was given, but the development comes amid Russia’s threat to hold up a final deal.

The European Union’s broker of the talks, Enrique Mora, said on Monday that the time had come for political decisions to conclude the discussions.

The three European powers in the 2015 agreement — the UK, France, and Germany — said in the statement to the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency:

The window of opportunity is closing. We call on all sides to make the decisions necessary to close this deal now, and on Russia not to add extraneous conditions to its conclusion.

UPDATE 1525 GMT:

Russia appears to be pulling back from its linkage of sanctions on Moscow, over its invasion of Ukraine, with any final Iran nuclear deal

After Iranian officials criticized the statement by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Ambassador said there has been a “misunderstanding”.

Levan Dzhagaryan continued, “We ask the Iranian people not to listen to the statements of foreign media. We will explain this to our Iranian friends through diplomatic channels.”

The Ambassador’s statement came soon after the Iranian Foreign Ministry said it was awaiting an explanation of Lavrov’s remarks.

UPDATE, MARCH 7:

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has rejected a Russian demand that sanctions against Moscow, over its invasion of Ukraine, be considered as part of a final deal revising the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement.

“These things are totally different and just are not, in any way, linked together. So I think that’s irrelevant,” Blinken said in a televised interview on Sunday.

A “senior Iranian official” cautiously said that Tehran is awaiting clarification of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks.

It is necessary to understand clearly what Moscow wants. If what they demand is related to the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action], it would not be difficult to find a solution for it.

But it will be complicated, if the guarantees that Moscow has demanded, are beyond the JCPOA.

Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said Iran will not allow “any foreign parties to undermine its national interests”.

A representative of French President Emmanuel Macron said the issues of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Iran nuclear program would not be conflated “because otherwise, in reality, it’s just blackmail and not diplomacy”.

A European diplomat added, “The Russians are really trying it on and the Iranians aren’t happy although of course not saying too much publicly. We’re trying to find a way through.”

UPDATE, MARCH 5:

Russia has put a question mark over the Iran nuclear talks, declaring that their resolution must include a guarantee over US sanctions against Moscow.

International sanctions have been tightened significantly because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24.

See also Ukraine War, Day 10: Putin Cracks Down on Independent Media

A “senior Iranian official” said on Saturday that the Russian remark is “not constructive”.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov demanded written US guarantees, stating that sanctions imposed on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine would not damage cooperation with Iran. Lavrov warned that Russian national interests have to be taken into account, and the sanctions have created a “problem”.

Just before Moscow’s intervention, Iran said it had agreed a roadmap with the International Atomic Energy Agency over undeclared nuclear sites and Tehran’s limit on inspections.

After talks with IAEA head Rafael Grossi, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami said, “We have agreed to provide the IAEA by the end of Khordad [June 21] with documents related to outstanding questions between Tehran and the agency.”

See also IAEA Head Going to Iran for Talks on Nuclear Inspections

The Iranian official summarized the complication with Moscow’s move over US sanctions:

Russians had put this demand on the table since two days ago. There is an understanding that by changing its position in Vienna talks Russia wants to secure its interests in other places.

This move is not constructive for the Vienna nuclear talks.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, MARCH 4: US officials say a renewal of the 2015 nuclear agreement is close, but hurdles remain and time is running out.

State Department deputy spokeswoman Jalina Porter cited “significant progress” as she summarized, “We are close to a possible deal.”

However, she continued, “a number of difficult issues still remain unsolved”: “We will not have a deal unless we resolve quickly the remaining issues”.

If Iran shows seriousness, we can and should reach an understanding of mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] within days.

Talks in Vienna are pursuing US re-entry to the 2015 deal, rejoining Iran, the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China; the lifting of American sanctions; and Iran’s return to compliance, ending its enrichment of 20% and even 60% uranium.

Porter’s comments reflect those of US and European officials in recent weeks, with the Americans pointing to a parallel discussion on the release of US nationals held in Iranian prisons. Initially, the US said an agreement was needed by mid-February and then by the end of the month.

See also Iran Nuclear Talks “Closer to Ever” to Deal — But Could Collapse

Enrique Mora, the European Union’s broker of the talks, tweeted on Thursday:

On Saturday, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, is in Tehran for discussions over the IAEA’s inspections, which have been restricted by Iran since early 2021.

See also IAEA Head Going to Iran for Talks on Nuclear Inspections