Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri Kani at the negotiations over the 2015 nuclear deal, Vienna, Austria, November 29, 2021

UPDATE, FEB 21:

The Iranian Parliament has passed a symbolic statement imposing requirements on any nuclear deal from the Vienna talks.

On Sunday, 250 of 290 Majlis legislators called on President Ebrahim Raisi to adhere to conditions against the “cruel and terrorist” US Government and its “weak and contemptible” followers in France, Germany, and the UK.

They include a guarantee by the US and the European states against any future withdrawal such as that of the Trump Administration in May 2018, and that the powers will not impose “snapback” sanctions through the UN if Iran is found in violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

The MPs also called for a “verification process” over US and European measures before Iran returned to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.

The statement is unlikely to affect the course of the Vienna negotiations, given that the Supreme Leader at this point is supporting the talks. However, it could bolster hardliners who are opposed to any renewal of the nuclear agreement, especially if Ayatollah Khamenei changes his position.

Last Thursday, Khamenei cautiously backed Iranian negotiators “who are working for the sanctions to be lifted”.

UPDATE, FEB 20:

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told participants at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday:

We now have the opportunity to reach an agreement that makes it possible for sanctions to be lifted. At the same time, it’s the case that if we don’t succeed very quickly in this, the negotiations threaten to fail.

The Iranian leadership now has a choice. Now is the moment of truth.

Speaking a few hours later at the conference, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian restated Iran’s line: “We are ready to achieve a good deal at the earliest possible time – if the other side makes the needed political decision….It is the Western side that has to present its initiatives and show flexibility….They have not shown any flexibility so far.”

Amir Abdollahian added that Iran could release foreign and dual nationals who are political prisoners in Iran: “We believe prisoner swap is a humanitarian issue…unrelated to the nuclear accord….We can do it immediately.”

In a 90-minute phone call, French President Emmanuel Macron urged Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi to complete the revised nuclear deal. Macron said the Vienna negotiations had produced a solution respectful of all parties’ interests.

Raisi complained, “Political pressures or claims have been made with the aim of maintaining pressure on the Iranian people, which undermine the prospect of reaching an agreement”. He called for the removal of all sanctions and “a valid guarantee”.

UPDATE, FEB 19:

A “senior European Union official” says renewal of the 2015 nuclear deal is close — if all sides have the political will to complete it.

The official said:

I expect an agreement in the coming week, the coming two weeks or so. I think we have now on the table text that are very, very close to what is going to be the final agreement….

Most of the issues are already agreed. But as a principle in this kind of negotiations, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So we still have…some questions, some of them rather political and difficult to agree.

Arriving in Germany on Friday for the Munich Security Conference, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said, “We are very close to a good agreement. But it is the Western parties that must show their true initiative and flexibility and determine these negotiations will lead to a result within the next few days or weeks.”

The Biden Administration also issued an encouraging signal:

UPDATE, FEB 18:

“Diplomatic sources” say the European Union’s broker of the Vienna talks, Enrique Mora, is working on a compromise draft for a renewal of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

A negotiator said, “We need more time to finalize next week. Not all issues have been settled yet.”

Diplomats are setting an unofficial deadline of the end of February, or at least before an International Atomic Energy Agency meeting on March 7: either there will be an agreement or US and European delegations will step away if Iran holds out for measures considered unfeasible — including guarantees that a future American administration will not withdraw from the deal.

Three diplomats said the draft resolution is for sequencing which links Iran’s return to compliance with US re-entry and lifting of sanctions.

Significantly, they indicated that Iran’s public position, with removal of all sanctions at the outset, has been set aside. Instead, the process will begin with Iran restricting its enrichment of uranium to about 5%.

Since January 2021, Iran has suspended the terms of the 2015 deal, which limits enrichment of uranium to 3.67%. Tehran has resumed its output of 20% uranium and produced its first 60% uranium, which potentially could be further enriched to a military grade of more than 90%.

As Iran limits enrichment, its assets of about $7 billion in South Korean banks can be unfrozen. The diplomats said Western political prisoners in Iran will be released.

The next phase, estimated to follow in one to three months, would include lifting of sanctions.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry rejected the summary from the diplomats:

Russia’s negotiator in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, said the draft text does not explicitly refer to the release of prisoners. US officials have said that the status of American detainees in Iran is being addressed on a separate, parallel track.

The Supreme Leader indicated on Thursday that talks could continue while proclaiming that Iran will triumph over American sanctions: “Our good brothers are busy in removing sanctions. That’s also good, but the major issue is neutralizing them.”

UPDATE, FEB 17: Iran’s lead negotiator says the Vienna talks are “closer than ever” to renewing the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia).

The statement from Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Baqeri Kani came as the US State Department said forthcoming days will be “decisive” over US re-entry, lifting of American sanctions, and Iran’s return to compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

There has been in-fighting in Tehran since last week, when the US and European powers tabled updated proposals. The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, undercut announcements of progress by the Foreign Ministry.

See also Contradictory Signals from Iran About Nuclear Talks

But Baqeri Kani pressed ahead in a Wednesday tweet, while continuing to press other powers:

State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters:

Our assessment is that we are in the midst of the very final stages of, as I said before, a complex negotiation with the key stakeholders here.

This is really the decisive period during which we’ll be able to determine whether a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA is in the offing or if it’s not.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian offered a similar assessment, saying a decision over a resolution will be made within days and calling on Tehran to make the necessary political choice.

Political decisions are needed from the Iranians. Either they trigger a serious crisis in the coming days, or they accept the agreement which respects the interests of all parties.

“Agreement Within Reach”

Hours earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian told the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, “The Iranian side’s initiatives have put an agreement within reach, but conclusion of a final agreement depends on the Western side’s responsible conduct.”

Perhaps the most marked shift came from the University of Tehran’s Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a de facto spokesman for the Iranian regime. For months, Marandi has castigated the US and Europe as dishonest and cast doubt on the talks. But he tweeted on Wednesday:

Price repeated the US offer of direct talks with Iran: “We have said for some time now that we would find direct negotiations in the context of Vienna to be to our advantage; it would be to the benefit of our attempts to seek to achieve or at least test the proposition of whether we can achieve a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA.”

The Vienna discussions have been pursued through the European Union and the other powers pursuing parallel negotiations with the Iranians and the Americans.

Iran’s Amir-Abdollahian rebuffed direct negotiations at this point: “We are not ready to enter into the process of direct talks with the US if we do not have a clear and promising outlook to reach a good agreement with sustainable guarantees in front of us.”

He said the US should begin by unfreezing billions of dollars of Iranian assets held abroad, or by issuing a Presidential executive order lifting some sanctions.