The European Union and Iran delegations at the 7th round of nuclear talks in Vienna, Austria, November 29, 2021
As the Iran nuclear talks resumed in Vienna on Monday, I spoke with Austria’s Radio FM4 about the approach of all sides: Iran, the US, and the other powers in the 2015 nuclear agreeement (UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia).
Listen to Discussion from 13:13
Publicly at least, the signs are not positive coming out of Tehran. Its line is unilateral lifting of US sanctions before any discussion of what Iran does. And there is no way that not only the US and the European powers — the UK, France, and Germany — but also China and Russia are going to go with that.
All the powers in these talks except Iran are saying that you have to have a linked, sequenced deal. Yes, the US comes back into the agreement. Yes, the US lifts sanctions. But at the same time, the Iranians have to return to compliance.
Because nobody — not even Moscow and Beijing — wants the Iranians on the verge of a military nuclear program….
The Iranians are pragmatic negotiators. But if the Supreme Leader decides that at the end of the day, I’m going with this so-called “Resistance Economy”, this mythical idea that the Iranians can be self-sufficient or at least get by with the Russians and Chinese, an agreement won’t happen.
See also Iran Publicly Rejects “Linked” Resolution as Nuclear Talks Resume
Iranian lead negotiator pleased that his demands to focus on sanctions lifting were accepted: https://twitter.com/Khaaasteh/status/1465377545658982405
Why Iran insists on getting guarantees: https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2021/11/29/671628/Iran-Foreign-Minister-Hossein-AmirAbdollahian-Vienna-talks-sanctions
“Iran’s top diplomat noted that the likely return of the US to the nuclear deal would not be meaningful unless guarantees are presented to prevent the recurrence of the bitter experience of the past and Iran’s trade partners could confidently enter into long term economic engagement with Iran free from any concern.”
Why buy Iranian oil if Trump is elected in 2024 and the U.S, again, withdraws from the JCPOA and re-imposes sanctions?
Progress in Iran nuclear talks as Tehran agrees to discuss compliance: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/29/iran-hopes-to-covertly-advance-its-nuclear-programme-says-israel
“Western diplomats have expressed guarded optimism and relief after the first day of resumed Iran nuclear talks in Vienna made unexpected progress when Tehran formally agreed to discuss steps to come back into compliance with the 2015 agreement…….The EU’s chief negotiator, Enrique Mora, said Iran had agreed that the talks could resume largely where they had ended in June, rather than with an entirely new agenda…..Ali Bagheri, the new Iranian chief negotiator, said he was optimistic, but that he was looking for a US guarantee that it would not only lift a swath of economic sanctions but also promise not to reimpose them in the future.”
Despite all the pessimism about Iran “stalling”, and not being interested in a deal, the fact is that the Raisi administration needs sanctions lifted and wants to tell the Iranian people they got a better agreement than Rouhani did. There still remain big obstacles regarding who is to go first and the American insistence that there be follow-up talks to “strengthen and extend” the deal. Iran also wants compensation for the U.S withdrawal and objective guarantees not to leave again.