An Iranian Army military exercise in northwest Iran near the border with Azerbaijan, October 1, 2021
UPDATE, OCT 16:
Verbal clashes between Iran and Azerbaijan have resumed, only three days after a call between Foreign Ministers supposedly eased tensions.
Speaking by video at a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States on Friday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed that Iran and Armenia have smuggled drugs for years to Europe across the territory of Nagorno Karabakh, disputed between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He said Azerbaijani forces have doubled their seizures of heroin along the border with Iran.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh responded, “Unfortunately, it seems that despite the positive and private messages received from Baku in various phone calls, the Azeri government has an intention to make baseless media statements that, of course, will be responded to appropriately.
Khatibzadeh maintained that Iran played a leading role in fighting drug smuggling, with thousands of Iranian security personnel killed and wounded.
The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, tweeted, “Leveling accusations against a country the international community recognizes as a frontrunner in the narcotics fight will have no effect but invalidate the speaker’s words.”
Returning to Iran’s claim of sinister Israeli influence in Azerbaijan, Shamkhani urged President Aliyev , “Accusing a country that is recognized by the international community as a hero of the fight against narcotic drugs has no effect but discrediting the speaker. Be careful of costly traps laid by devils.”
UPDATE, OCT 13:
Iran and Azerbaijan have lowered tensions through a phone call between Foreign Ministers on Tuesday.
Iran’s Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Azerbaijan’s Jehon Peramov “stressed the need for the resolution of recent issues between Baku and Tehran through dialogue and cooperation in a calm and friendly atmosphere”, according to Iranian State outlet Press TV.
Amir-Abdollahian emphasized “the need for mutual respect, independence, sovereignty and integrity of the territories of both countries” as he proclaimed that “Tehran and Baku have a long-standing relationship.”
The Foreign Minister made no reference to Tehran’s heated condemnation of Azerbaijan’s links with Israel, or of military exercises. Insted, he said the two countries must “prevent misunderstandings”: “It is better to continue their relations in the right and rapidly growing direction….The two countries have enemies that should not be given an opportunity to strain relations between them.”
Amir-Abdollahian did say that Tehran is “waiting for an end to the problem of Iranian truck transportation” for Armenia through Azerbaijani territory.
The Azerbaijani foreign minister, for his part, described his country’s relations with Tehran as “friendly” and said that “relations with friendly countries are a priority for the Republic of Azerbaijan.”
Calling for “solving problems through dialogue and in a calm and intimate atmosphere,” Peramov suggested that customs officials in the two countries hold talks to end the problems of exporting Iranian goods through Azerbaijani territory, and promised to pursue the case and release of two Iranian drivers, who were arrested last month.
According to Press TV, Azerbaijan’s Peramov said “relations with friendly countries are a priority for the Republic of Azerbaijan…solving problems through dialogue and in a calm and intimate atmosphere”.
The site said Peramov suggested talks between customs officials over the export of Iranian goods through Azerbaijani territory. He pledged to take up the case of two Iranian truck drivers arrested last month.
ORIGINAL ENTRY, OCT 6: Tensions are rising between Iran and neighboring Azerbaijan, with each side accusing the other of military provocations and reports of the Azerbaijani Government closing the Iranian Supreme Leader’s office in the capital Baku.
Iran was agitated by joint military exercises inside Azerbaijan with Turkey and Pakistan on September 12. Tehran is denouncing Azerbaijani links with Israel. It is protesting restrictions on Iranian truck drivers crossing to Armenia, with whom Azerbaijan fought over the disputed Nagorno Karabakh area last November.
See also World Unfiltered: Why We Should Care About Azerbaijan
On October 1, Iran responded with its own military drills near the northwest border with Azerbaijan, as the Revolutionary Guards deployed military equipment. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev claimed surprise and expressed concern: “Every country can carry out any military drill on its own territory. It’s their sovereign right. But why now, and why on our border?” But rather than ease the situation, the Supreme Leader stepped up criticism of Baku last weekend.
On Tuesday, Iran’s semi-official outlet Tasnim said the Supreme Leader’s office in Baku had been shut. Both Iranian officials, including its Ambassador to Azerbaijan, and the Azerbaijani Interior Ministry denied the report: they said an official congregation hall had been closed because of concerns over Coronavirus.
But on arrival Moscow for talks with Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian tried to maintain pressure. He said Tehran expects Russia to be “sensitive” towards Israeli movements in the South Caucasus and “any possible changes to borders”.
Amir-Abdollahian said he is confident of “good agreements” with Lavrov.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijan and Turkey are staging military drills on Wednesday.
Iran Warns Azerbaijan of “Ruination”
Iran and Azerbaijan share a 700-km (434-mile) border. Kioumars Heydari, the commander of the Iranian Army’s ground forces, said during the drills last week, “Since the arrival of this [Azerbaijani] regime, our sensitivity to this border has increased and their activities here are fully under our observation.”
Heydari declared that Tehran was monitoring the presence of “terrorist forces that came to the region from Syria”.
On Tuesday Kamal Kharrazi — Iran’s Foreign Minister from 2007 to 2015 and the current head of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations — played up the Israel angle as “strongly warned” Azerbaijan not to import its security from abroad: “Given their illegitimate goals and interests, this can lead to arms race in the region and even end up afflicting damage or even ruination on the host country.” He continued:
If, today, the Islamic Republic is one of the region’s undisputed powers, it is because of its self-reliance and independence from foreign forces.
Undoubtedly, the Zionist regime has not set up a lair in Azerbaijan without any expectations. It harbors the sinister goal of igniting war in the region on the back of the current [Azerbaijan] government’s strategic mistake. And this would be a tragic disaster.
“So your argument is that the Iranian economy is reliant on black markets for sustainability. Not exactly a solid foundation for an economic system.”
That is the case throughout the developing world. In the United States, companies avoid paying tax simply by relocating to Ireland and the Bahamas.
If it weren’t for smuggling, sanctions would have hurt even more.
Quite the diversion there — tax avoidance is an issue in the “developing world”, but that is far different from a nationwide black market.
Iran’s steel sector still booming despite sanctions: https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/466056/Iran-s-steel-sector-still-booming-despite-sanctions
“Iran’s ranking among the top 10 steel producers in the world shows that the decline of Iran’s position among steel producing countries will not be easy.. Based on the Iranian Steel Producers Association’s data, Iranian steel companies managed to produce 30.2 million tons of steel in the previous Iranian calendar year , registering a three-percent annual growth.”
Iran’s economy – less troubled than Washington would like, and turning to the East: https://intellinews.com/iran-s-economy-less-troubled-than-washington-would-like-and-turning-to-the-east-220230/?source=iran
“Iran is not a hydrocarbon economy. Even in their un-sanctioned state hydrocarbons value-add rarely rose above 20% of GDP and for most of the time hydrocarbons contributed around 15% of GDP…… Iran, whose economy is demonstrably considerably healthier than the consensus suggests, and much healthier than some major economies we could mention, has been driven firmly into the China/Russia camp, where it will prosper.”
More of an advocacy piece, than an analysis. Some of the cherry-picking includes ignoring the large share of oil revenue in Gov’t budget (still 1/3 even after supposed diversification) and ignoring the sharp GDP downturn 2018-2020…
The Iranian government has traditionally had problems collecting taxes since the public assumed it was not short of cash because of oil revenues. That has changed now. The article does not take into account the fact that 40% of economic activity is undeclared/underground.
The resumption of sanctions by the U.S has led to a major change. Iran used to rely on crude and condensate exports for 80% of its foreign exchange earnings. Now it relies on the export of petrochemicals, refined oil products, natural gas and non-oil goods for that same 80%.
The Iranian economy has weathered the storm and shock of sanctions which was designed to cause it to collapse. The attempt failed.
So your argument is that the Iranian economy is reliant on black markets for sustainability.
Not exactly a solid foundation for an economic system.
IMF predicts 2.5% growth for Iran in 2021: https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/465972/IMF-sees-Iran-s-GDP-growth-at-2-5-in-2021
Iran has generally overcome the shock of the re-imposition of US sanctions, although the national currency remains much lower than in 2018.
For perspective, Iran’s GDP shrank 5.4% in 2018 and 7.6% in 2019 before rebounding by 1.7% in 2020.
Yes, and that is why I referred to the shock of US sanctions that caused the economy to nosedive. The relative stability of the economy today is a reason why Iran isn’t desperate to rejoin the nuclear talks despite the US repeatedly asking Iranian negotiators to do so.
Meanwhile, the world economy suffers from high energy prices – partly the result of keeping Iranian oil and gas off the international market: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58824121
Varharan,
Your error is in framing two years of minimal recovery, after two years of sharp drops in GDP, as “relative stability”.
The claim that high energy prices are due to Iranian oil and gas is a red herring which ignores/buries the set of causes.
S.
Iranian women to be allowed into the stadium to watch the game against South Korea: http://www.insideworldfootball.com/2021/10/05/iran-open-azadi-stadium-fans-south-korean-qualifier-including-women/
Iran authorises use of “Spikogen” an Iranian-Australian recombinant protein vaccine: https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2021/10/06/2585097/iran-authorizes-emergency-use-of-vaccine-developed-jointly-with-australia
Unlike with the mRNA and adenoviral vaccines, the vaccine does not supply any RNA instructions for making proteins but, rather, the protein itself.
“Iran has already granted emergency use authorization to Russian-made Sputnik V vaccine, Covaxin made by India’s Bharat Biotech, Oxford/AstraZeneca developed by Russia’s R-Pharm Group, AstraZeneca-SKBio made in South Korea and PastuCovac vaccine, produced jointly by Iran’s Pasteur Institute and Cuba’s Finlay Vaccine Institute.”
Iran has not imported any Pfizer, Moderna or J&J vaccines.
A bit of an exaggeration from Iran outlet Tasnim: Spikogen is not “Iranian-Australian” — it was developed by Australia’s Vaxine with Iran’s CinnaGen sponsoring a Phase III study in Tehran.
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/spikogen-vaccine-trial-results/
Iran’s Armed-Drone Prowess Reshapes Security in Middle East: https://www.wsj.com/articles/irans-armed-drone-prowess-reshapes-security-in-middle-east-11633530266
“Tehran is rapidly developing the ability to build and deploy drones which is changing the security equation in a region, already on edge.”