Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has taken another step towards a military confrontation with Russia and the Assad regime in Idlib Province in northwest Syria.
Erdoğan’s escalation of rhetoric, which began three weeks ago, continued on Wednesday with a speech to his ruling Justice and Development Party in Ankara.
Speaking of the 10-month Russia-regime offensive which has killed more than 1,800 civilians and displaced more than a million in the northwest, Erdoğan warned not only the Assad regime but also Russia and Iran, “Frankly speaking, the Idlib operation is a matter of time. Turkey will not leave Idlib to the Assad regime and its backers, who have not comprehended the determination of our country regarding this matter.”
The offensive shattered a Russia-Turkey arrangement for a de-escalation zone in Idlib and northern Hama Province. The assault has seized almost all of northern Hama Province and part of southern Idlib.
But Erdoğan said that Ankara, whose 12 observation posts have been surrounded and occasionally shelled, will no longer tolerate the attacks: “Like our previous operations, we say our operation may happen suddenly one night….We are determined at all costs to turn Idlib into a safe haven for the sake of Turkey and the people of the region.”
The Turkish President is concerned about the pressure from the displaced, driven from their homes by Russian-regime ground and air attacks. Turkey, which hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees, closed its border in 2016.
He repeated a deadline of February 28 for the Assad regime to withdraw from Idlib: “There are few days left (according to the deadline given by Turkey) for the regime to stop its aggression in Idlib and retreat to the areas determined by the Sochi deal [the de-escalation zone]. These are our last warnings.”
The Turkish President’s statement fulfilled a projection by a well-placed local analyst, given to EA WorldView on Monday:
This time I think that just because Turkey can’t take in more refugees, it will threaten Russia to a point they will call Putin’s bluff.
Bullying works only as long as the bullied party has ways to retreat. This time Turkey has no other choice than to confront Russia if [Russian President Vladimir] Putin continues.
A “Worst-Case Scenario”?
Erdoğan first named Russia in his criticism at the end of January, just before Moscow and the regime seized the key town of Saraqeb on the junction of the M4 and M5 highways in Idlib.
Since then, the Turkish military has sent convoys to reinforce the observation posts and retaliated for regime shelled that killed 13 Turkish troops and a civilian contractor.
Turkey has not appeared on the frontline; however, Ankara’s covert supplies of weapons and ammunition have bolstered anti-Assad forces in their resistance to the offensive.
Having taken control of the M5 highway from Aleppo to Damascus, the Russian-regime advance has stopped. Instead, the attacks have concentrated on seizing territory in neighboring western Aleppo Province.
Two sets of meetings between Turkish and Russian officials in the last two weeks have ended in division and tension.
Erdoğan said yesterday that there had been no favorable results, and while discussions will continue, the two countries are “miles away” from a resolution.
The Kremlin tried to play down any possibility of a confrontation.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisted Assad regime force were adhering to agreements and only reacting to provocations.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “If we talk about an operation against legitimate Syrian authorities and armed forces, it is of course a worst-case scenario.”
“The Regime Counterattack was supported by Russian Close Aerial Support” – @AbdoZehn
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Remember what I said previously, the Russians can’t provide air support if all their airbase are closed down by ‘drone swarms’ and rocket barrages, the regime helicopters can’t provide ‘air support’ if there’s no Russian jets and too many rebel MANPAD units, if rebels can do my above tactics then there would be no regime air support because of those ‘drone swarms’ and MANPADs which means rebels not only keep their towns lot longer it also means rebels have time to dig bigger/deeper trenches to protect themselves from regime air attack and regime armour attack.
Seeing recent reports about some of the difficulties rebels are facing in holding towns they capture because of regime/Russian airpower, it’s not just enough to advocate ‘hug the enemy’ now rebels have MANPADs because as I said a few days ago: Now that rebels have a small number of MANPADs (under Turkish supervision?) the rebels should now deliberately bait regime helicopters to attack those rebel units that have MANPAD operators hidden amongst those rebel units so rebels can ambush more of those regime helicopters.
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How you say? Regime won’t be that stupid you say? The regime won’t use those helicopters whilst launching it’s offensives against rebels areas BUT if rebels launch a surprise offensive in multiple areas that the regime are desperate not to lose (e.g. a highway that supplies their army, the outskirts of a military airbase, a mountain like Nabi Yunus etc) then the regime will send in every one of their helicopters to that area if the Russians can’t or don’t want to send Russian jets to that area (e.g. Russians will prioritise defending their Hmemim airbase in Latakia ahead of Nayrab airbase because Hmemim is the one they directly control) IF rebels also at the same time launch ‘drone swarms’ to every airbase near the front-line in Idlib whilst launching their surprise offensive in multiple areas that the regime are desperate not to lose and because those ‘drone swarms’ will keep those Russian jets busy the regime will be forced to send all their helicopters to any area that the rebels capture which the rebels can then ambush with their MANPADs whilst rebel assault troops (e.g. Inghimasi) ‘hug the enemy’ long enough to use those MANPADs.
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Remember that the regime likely only has either 10 or 12 large helicopters left, if rebels can create/use a MANPAD ambush to knock out another 2 or 3 regime helicopters every week then Assad’s army will end up losing half their helicopters and the fewer helicopters Assad’s army has the less civilians in rebel areas get killed by Assad’s helicopters.
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BTW
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Why isn’t Tartous not subjected to ‘drone swarms’ by rebels knowing that’s well all the Russian jets, regime troops and regime’s oil money comes from? If Khmeeimim military airbase is too difficult for rebels to target then why not target the oil terminals and the shipping of Tartous? Especially if Tartous doesn’t have the same level of anti-drone system as Khmeeimim and Hama military airbase?