Iran’s Supreme Leader greets Revolutionary Guards officers, Tehran, October 2, 2019


Defying economic problems and sending a message to Europe as well as the US, Iran’s Supreme Leader says the Islamic Republic will suspend more commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal with the remaining 5+1 Powers (UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia).

Addressing Revolutionary Guards officers on Wednesday, Ayatollah Khamenei appeared to shut the door on French President’s Emmanuel Macron mediation efforts, which failed to bring together President Hassan Rouhani and Donald Trump at the United Nations last week.

Iran Daily, Oct 1: How Rouhani Kept Trump Waiting on the Phone

Khamenei tried to project Iran’s strength against American weakness, saying the Trump Administration will “definitely” continue to fail with “maximum pressure” including withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May 2018 and comprehensive sanctions from last November.

With the failure to establish an economic link with Europe to bypass sanctions, Iran has suspended a series of commitments since late June. They include exceeding the deal’s limit on stocks of 3.67% uranium, raising enrichment to 4.5%, and reinstalling advanced uranium centrifuges.

So far Iran has refrained from returning to its pre-2015 production of 20% uranium, which potentially can be further enriched to military-grade 90%.

Khamenei did not specify the further suspensions, which could also include construction of the Arak heavy-water reactor. The project was held up by the 2015 agreement until a redesign ensured no by-product of plutonium, which can be used for nuclear warheads.

Instead, he mocked the Trump Administration as “begging and sought the mediation of their European friends”, but failing to get a meeting with Iranian leader, and he said the sanctions were only a “short-term problem” for an Islamic Republic which can generate “long-term benefits” by diversifying its economy beyond oil revenues.

In February, Iran rejected a European Union mechanism, known as INSTEX, because of “humiliating conditions” such as the EU’s concern over Iran’s missile program, activities in the Middle East, and alleged involvement in bomb and assassination plots in Europe.

Trying to salvage the nuclear deal and ease tensions in the Persian Gulf, Macron launched a mediation effort in July, shuttling between Trump and Rouhani. France proposed a $15 billion line of credit to Iran, in return for Tehran lifting its suspension of commitments under the nuclear agreement.

Macron renewed the effort on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. But his attempt was blunted by France’s need to get US acceptance of any line of credit, protecting French financial institutions from American punishment.

Rouhani: French Plan is Acceptable but Not Yet Time for Meeting

Khamenei’s remarks appeared to check, or at least offset, positive remarks by Rouhani earlier in the day about a Franch basis for restarting US-Iran negotiations.

The Iranian President confirmed a report of a four-point plan from Macron. The Politico article said Trump and Rouhani had agreed a text where that “Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon” and will “fully comply with its nuclear obligations and commitments and will accept a negotiation on a long-term framework for its nuclear activities”. Terhan would also “refrain from any aggression and will seek genuine peace and respect in the region through negotiations” — language that mirrors remarks made by Trump before the General Assembly last week.

The US would agree to “lift all the sanctions re-imposed since 2017” so “Iran will have full ability to export its oil and freely use its revenues.”

A French official added that, while Iran’s missile program is not explicitly mentioned, “It was clear to all that the negotiation over regional issues would necessarily include their ballistic program.”

Rouhani told a Cabinet meeting yesterday:

France had prepared a plan that could be acceptable, because it was basically based on the demand that Iran must not seek nuclear weapons, which we had already said it wasn’t, and the US must abandon all its sanctions.

He defended his refusal to take a phone call from Trump in New York: “What others may think was the settlement point, was far from settlement. Such an important matter cannot be settled within a few hours without considering all its aspects,

Rouhani claimed that US officials were telling the Europeans in private calls that they are ready for negotiations, but saying publicly that they were going to tighten sanctions.

“I turned to Macron and told him, ‘Shall I believe you, or shall I believe the U.S. president who is tightening the sanctions on my country?’” he said.