UPDATE 2015 GMT:
Snap analysis after the House of Commons defeated the Withdrawal Plan by a vote of 434-204 — the heaviest Parliamentary loss for a UK government since 1924….
The Government’s ship has been sunk. The Prime Minister and her remaining loyalists now cling to the liferaft of cross-party talks that — 30 months after the June 2016 referendum and 10 weeks before the March 29 deadline — will magically produce a plan which will magically be accepted by hard Brexit-ers, the Democratic Unionist Party, the Labour opposition, the Scottish Nationalists, and the European Union.
Even if Theresa May stays on the liferaft after Wednesday’s no confidence vote, there is no safe harbour. There is no Plan B.
This is the clarity from the muddle of Brexit. On March 29, there will either be a No Deal, with the UK crashing out of the EU to economic consequences, or there will be an extension of Article 50 to delay departure and heads toward an uncertain outcome: a plan which can’t be foreseen at the moment, a General Election, or a 2nd referendum.
On Tuesday, Parliament will vote on the UK Government’s Withdrawal Bill for a Brexit departure from the European Union. The measure is also certain to be rejected, so what happens next?
In partnership with the University of Birmingham, here’s our two-minute explanation of the two alternative: 1) the UK crashing out of the EU on March 29 in a No Deal Brexit, with serious economic consequences, or 2) a months-long extension of Article 50, the “trigger” for withdrawal, for possibilities from a revised deal to a General Election to a second referendum which could lead to the UK remaining in the EU.
I also spoke with talkRADIO’s Julia Hartley-Brewer on Monday morning to lay out the possibilities for the week’s developments.